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re: New theory on Wuhan Virus being floated by epidemiologists
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:22 am to Rip N Lip
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:22 am to Rip N Lip
quote:Europeans are quite "handsy". Population density is also quite different in the US.
The USA is different from every country on this planet in education level, demographics, social customs (especially "social distancing"), and this will be argued, but also health care.
0
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:27 am to DownSouthJukin
I think if we tested everybody in the world we would find that a lot of people have had it.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:27 am to Pecker
quote:
Still doesn't explain wtf is going on in Italy and Spain though.
I think a lot of it can be explained with the difference in our healthcare system vs the rest of the world. Our system is not a giant govt run national bureaucracy. Look how many people in this thread just went to the doc, got tested for flu and still received meds and treatment despite testing negative. No lines, no rationing just in and out in a few hours or less. We take our system for granted, but I doubt you get that level of care in other places around the globe.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:29 am to Volvagia
quote:The problem is they can only map what they've detected. If there were earlier untested strains, they wouldn't show up anywhere. The data are reaaaalllly sparse at this point.
If it was spreading in the US since last year, they wouldn’t have been able to genetically map out the spread like this:
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:36 am to Stingray
quote:
Look how awful the last three years are. The odds of that have to be astronomical.
TDS causes stress, and stress weakens the immune system.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:40 am to Eli Goldfinger
If this is true, case growth should really fall off in the next 2 to 4 weeks.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:42 am to I B Freeman
I wonder just how some doctor decided to try to identify the virus?
How many times have we all been to the doctor and been told we have the crud and sent home?
Never has a doctor said to me “I am going to identify the particular virus you have”.
How many times have we all been to the doctor and been told we have the crud and sent home?
Never has a doctor said to me “I am going to identify the particular virus you have”.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:43 am to Eli Goldfinger
Early November I had a dry cough, tightness in the chest and off an on low grade fever. Lasted almost two weeks. Tested negative for the flu.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:47 am to Eli Goldfinger
I know my kids' school had the worst season for "flu" ever - like over 50% of the kids had the flu or flu like symptoms at the same time last November/December. If it was the Kung flu that would explain a lot.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:56 am to LSU0358
quote:Actual cases, yes. Reported cases, no. We're just now starting to test for it widely. There's really no where for the reported number to go but UP.
If this is true, case growth should really fall off in the next 2 to 4 weeks.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 8:59 am to Pussykat
quote:
Same here, try a humidifier, only thing that has helped my mucous breakup.
I never do anything, just let it break up on its on for a week or so, and I’m good. That’s what’s been so weird about this lasting so long. I finally started taking Mucinex when this scare started, thinking that at 54, I don’t need a pre-existing respiratory condition. Seems to be helping but I’m not out of the woods yet.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 9:01 am to Taxing Authority
quote:
The problem is they can only map what they've detected. If there were earlier untested strains, they wouldn't show up anywhere. The data are reaaaalllly sparse at this point.
This is true, however they traced multiple strains in the US, with enough detail to connect outbreaks to other cities in the US.
It more than strains plausibility to suggest that given how fast it spreads, with how all the genetic mapping fits in a chart tracing back to a US index case in Jan 10-15, in reality they just happened to only test samples from the Chinese linage and it was really here since late last year.
It is straight up conjecture only supported by hunches and feelings. Especially when you start getting Joe Poster chiming in about a upper respiratory infection they felt they had in the timeframe, insinuating it was CoV-19
Posted on 3/15/20 at 9:20 am to Volvagia
not to go all CT, but that data just shows the current strains hitting came around in January from Asia
if people were getting some COVID-19 strain in January, it's not going to be the same lineage that we're tracking now
obviously the people who we see now are getting the strains that just recently came over, but we wouldn't have data to look at strains possibly infecting people 2 months ago. if this were to go back to October in China, there would be all sorts of lineages and the only one we can trace now is the one that came over in January
i think the European spread is the best argument against the "October theory"
*ETA: the argument against THAT is Chinese New Year, which may have spread it exponentially moer
if people were getting some COVID-19 strain in January, it's not going to be the same lineage that we're tracking now
obviously the people who we see now are getting the strains that just recently came over, but we wouldn't have data to look at strains possibly infecting people 2 months ago. if this were to go back to October in China, there would be all sorts of lineages and the only one we can trace now is the one that came over in January
i think the European spread is the best argument against the "October theory"
*ETA: the argument against THAT is Chinese New Year, which may have spread it exponentially moer
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 9:21 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 9:24 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
If this is theory is correct, Wuhan Bat-Eater Plague has likely already made its way through our population.
If this is true, then testing will bear out that assumption. Testing for anti-bodies might be worthwhile, if not cost inefficient.
It does seem that stats should show an increase in the mortality rates of highly vulnerable demographics (Nursing Home Patients at the fore), over and above normal Flu-related deaths, as this particular Virus goes straight to the lungs.
All said, this will be a learning experience for our Nation; this won't be the last unique Virus, and the CDC should be slammed by Trump just like the VA. Get off their asses and do the work they are paid to do or be fired. We'll need to be ready for a likely mutated version of CV19 for next 'Flu' season. If that is even humanly possible. Those Viruses are like Commies...they never give up; just mutate to meet the challenge.
Also, Manufacturing of critical Meds and Equipment should be brought back within our Borders, as China has openly threated the withholding of such. Again, Trump is right re trade with China...Dem's Policy is insane.
Hate to get Political...but power at the top determines our fate. And this scenario should be a guarantee for Trump's re-election...and the furtherance of His "America First" Policy.
This Nation has many beautiful and loving souls. Our Constitutional Principles are noble, and just; and we'll continue refine/implement our merciful Principles as able. Day of Prayer. God have mercy.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 9:43 am to Volvagia
quote:True. But that presumes China's detection was timely and very close to P0.
It more than strains plausibility to suggest that given how fast it spreads, with how all the genetic mapping fits in a chart tracing back to a US index case in Jan 10-15, in reality they just happened to only test samples from the Chinese linage and it was really here since late last year.
Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but to me the mapping is basically a DAG. If you landed in a node randomly, and could only go forward... you could potentially miss a lot in upstream nodes and their children that grew in parallel.
And because that separation grow exponential... you can get really far from the original landing node in a hurry.
quote:Of course it is. But extrapolating sparse data isn't much better, quite frankly. I see that mistake a lot in our data modeling.
It is straight up conjecture only supported by hunches and feelings. Especially when you start getting Joe Poster chiming in about a upper respiratory infection they felt they had in the timeframe, insinuating it was CoV-19
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 9:48 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 9:47 am to Govt Tide
quote:
I'm almost positive I had the coronavirus already
Was curious about that too. Wonder how many people have already had it and wrote it off as the common flu or “just not feeling well”.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 9:55 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
I don't know any reasonable person who doesn't concede this is likely. I think the dates it spread from China are murkier, but I think it was here by Thanksgiving. Hell, I think I had it.
My sister in law was sick in late February, she ran a fever (102-103) over a 4-5 stretch and felt pretty bad but didn't think too much about it........now I'm wondering if she just had the flu or the Wuhan. My brother didn't get sick so I'm not sure how he wouldn't have contracted the Wuhan if she had it.....probably just had some virus.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:05 am to I B Freeman
quote:
I wonder just how some doctor decided to try to identify the virus?
Docs could only do that if they had like 2 patients per day.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:11 am to RCDfan1950
quote:
this particular Virus goes straight to the lungs
For the most severe cases.
For the majority of cases it doesn’t greatly impact lung function.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:14 am to Taxing Authority
quote:
But extrapolating sparse data isn't much better, quite frankly. I see that mistake a lot in our data modeling.
Agreed...these extrapolations of extrapolated numbers are out of control.
An analyst would first need to normalize the numbers across national demographics.
I can say with certainty that the “30M!” fatality numbers we’re seeing are a bunch of BS.
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