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Message
re: New theory on Wuhan Virus being floated by epidemiologists
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:59 am to Govt Tide
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:59 am to Govt Tide
quote:
This explains the badass "cold virus" I had in early December and to a lesser extent in early February. Missed about 3 days of work in early December and 2 days in early February. The February one was much less severe and I could have gone back to work after one day off but still had a nasty dry cough so I stayed home. Went to Emergicare (doc in the box) both times to get tested for flu and strep. Came back negative both times. They had no idea what the virus was. The doctor literally had no clue what the virus was. She said there was an unusual new strain of the cold virus going around this year and a lot of people had been in to get tested for the flu and almost everyone tested negative. Gave me a steroid shot and called in some medication to the pharmacy. I had a normal 100 to 101 fever both times. Typical cold and flu symptoms but the unusual thing I had never experienced was a long period of a nagging, persistent and at times violent dry cough for a couple of weeks after each diagnosis. Never experienced that before. I felt crappy for a short time with each instance but nothing out of the ordinary other than the persistent annoying dry cough that persisted for two or three weeks during each episode. I'm almost positive I had the coronavirus already. Btw, I'm a reasonably healthy 45 year old with no real underlying health conditions. In other words, this virus (at least the strain of it I had) is little more than a bad cold/the flu and this freak out is way way way overblown.
I had almost the same symptoms and gutted it out on my own using over the counter meds. I fly almost on a weekly basis and remember first feeling I’ll coming back from New Orleans the last week of January.
0
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:59 am to LSUGrrrl
My wife and I were sick for exactly six days with no after effects. I hope you get well soon.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 1:05 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:06 am to Rip N Lip
Wanna flip your shite?
LINK
Geauxmedic posted this on the OT:
"Here’s the latest: cautious optimism. Spoke with several senior members of government in both parties and also some medial public health first responders and while they not say to be vigilant and measured and sanitize and all that we’ve been told, they also say that if it’s true that China knew of CoronaVirus in early November, the likelihood that it has already run through parts of this country is massive. Meaning we are way past testing and mitigation. It also means we may...may...have moved through it in parts of the U.S.
Again..this is very cautious optimism. The first responders I spoke with and several doctors say that flu was rough this winter and many people with very similar symptoms to Covid were sent home to recover. Did they already have it? Has it already been thru here?
Thus the rough flu season we’ve experienced already. These are all questions we will know answers to soon enough. I suggest to my colleagues in the media, these are the questions and investigations we should be doing/asking. Politics aside for a couple of weeks. Try it."
LINK
Geauxmedic posted this on the OT:
"Here’s the latest: cautious optimism. Spoke with several senior members of government in both parties and also some medial public health first responders and while they not say to be vigilant and measured and sanitize and all that we’ve been told, they also say that if it’s true that China knew of CoronaVirus in early November, the likelihood that it has already run through parts of this country is massive. Meaning we are way past testing and mitigation. It also means we may...may...have moved through it in parts of the U.S.
Again..this is very cautious optimism. The first responders I spoke with and several doctors say that flu was rough this winter and many people with very similar symptoms to Covid were sent home to recover. Did they already have it? Has it already been thru here?
Thus the rough flu season we’ve experienced already. These are all questions we will know answers to soon enough. I suggest to my colleagues in the media, these are the questions and investigations we should be doing/asking. Politics aside for a couple of weeks. Try it."
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:07 am to Rip N Lip
My wife had the roughest bout of cold/flu she has ever had, we've been married 10 years and I've never seen her that beat down by sickness, she tested negative for the flu. I myself, who had gotten the flu once in my life had this shortness of breath for several days and I thought I was going to die, all I kept thinking was I was coming down with pneumonia, it went away after a few days of over the counter meds.
It would be great news if this comes to fruition.
It would be great news if this comes to fruition.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:08 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
It’s now believed that Covid-19 was in China much earlier than reported. Perhaps as early as mid October.
This is an interesting theory and I've seen arguments for as early as September. However, a number of researchers have been reviewing ILINet & WHO-NREVSS data for the US and as of 3.13.20, there still wasn't strong evidence of a high volume undetected COVID-19 in the data. Also, the earliest sequence up on Nextstrain is from mid-Jan from Washington state. The Seattle Flu Study group has been looking into the data and hasn't been able to find anything before that mid-January case.
Of less certainty since it relies of info form China:
quote:
This phylogeny shows an initial emergence in Wuhan, China, in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections.
LINK
One of the open source preprint papers out there on the ILI data - LINK
I'm not arguing against the theory that it has been around longer than originally thought. However, there is some research that points to the later timeline.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:10 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Read what I linked. There's a lot of smoke here now.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:16 am to Eli Goldfinger
I think its possible this could have run through earlier than reports are saying.
But if covid19 had been in USA many months ago or past couple years as some in this thread are suggesting-why would it start all over again in a particular China and spread across the globe? Doesnt make any sense
But if covid19 had been in USA many months ago or past couple years as some in this thread are suggesting-why would it start all over again in a particular China and spread across the globe? Doesnt make any sense
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:22 am to Eli Goldfinger
You mean to tell me, I have been wiping my arse with pine needles for a week because someone overreacted?
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:24 am to Bulldogblitz
I been having to ball up and unball loose leaf paper. Very time consuming, but a surprisingly pleasant yield.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:32 am to dgtiger3
quote:
My wife had the roughest bout of cold/flu she has ever had, we've been married 10 years and I've never seen her that beat down by sickness, she tested negative for the flu. I myself, who had gotten the flu once in my life had this shortness of breath for several days and I thought I was going to die, all I kept thinking was I was coming down with pneumonia, it went away after a few days of over the counter meds.
My wife got the cough much worse than I did. My fever/ chills/ aches were worse than hers. We both had the same level of sinus swelling with no congestion, just constant runny nose. My sneezing was much worse than hers. I never experienced shortness of breath, but my wife did. But I never get short of breath, even at altitude (10k+)while hiking.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 1:41 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:38 am to phonyscandals
I usually go to the same doc in the box when I get the "crud" and went once last year and they simply said it wasn't the flu. I'm always curious about what it could be but never got a long explanation from the doctor about a new strand of the cold virus like I did this year. Unlike previous years, she was at a loss at explaining what was going on this year with tons of people coming in to get tested for the flu and almost everyone testing negative. She said A LOT of people had been in with the same symptoms I had. She gave everyone the old steroid shot in the arse and a prescription. I managed both of my instances of an extremely annoying cough and fever with Nyquil before going back to work.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:42 am to phonyscandals
quote:
I think its possible this could have run through earlier than reports are saying. But if covid19 had been in USA many months ago or past couple years as some in this thread are suggesting-why would it start all over again in a particular China and spread across the globe? Doesnt make any sense
People do stupid things and one is to stay put but many are selfish and do not care! Might be similar to the Spanish Flu.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:45 am to SportTiger1
quote:
The point is, we just started testing for it in the past couple of weeks. All these other people with like symptoms went to the Dr and a test didn't exist.
Given that the symptoms in younger population are not severe, WHY isn't it a very reasonable theory that many have already had it?
It doesn't follow the pattern of what we've seen in other countries. I find it hard to believe that this thing was making its way through the US in November/December and didn't hit a nursing home until March. That said, it's even harder to believe that only 2500-3000 people in the US have it right now. In fact we know that's not true, and hospitals aren't overflowing nor are old folks and morbidly obese dropping like flies. Still doesn't explain wtf is going on in Italy and Spain though.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 1:51 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:53 am to Pecker
quote:They said the flu has been bad this season.
find it hard to believe that this thing was making its way through the US in November/December and didn't hit a nursing home until March.
And the Flu ALWAYS hits nursing homes.
So, maybe it DID hit nursing homes but until they were looking for something else, they wouldn't have thought much of it other than "Bad flu season".
They've had them before. Wouldn't have stood out particularly.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:55 am to Eli Goldfinger
I would just like to point out that the fundamental problem with the reporting up to this point is that none of the statistics made sense in real life.
That's why I've been saying something was way the frick off for days now.
If it turns out that the reality is, it hit the US much earlier, then, that makes all of the stats fall in line and viola', no more whacky stats that defy common sense.
We'll see but, let's just say I'm not gonna be stunned to learn this OP is true.
That's why I've been saying something was way the frick off for days now.
If it turns out that the reality is, it hit the US much earlier, then, that makes all of the stats fall in line and viola', no more whacky stats that defy common sense.
We'll see but, let's just say I'm not gonna be stunned to learn this OP is true.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 2:00 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
I don't know any reasonable person who doesn't concede this is likely. I think the dates it spread from China are murkier, but I think it was here by Thanksgiving. Hell, I think I had it.
Were you hospitalized?
Posted on 3/15/20 at 2:07 am to ShortyRob
quote:
So, maybe it DID hit nursing homes but until they were looking for something else, they wouldn't have thought much of it other than "Bad flu season".
They've had them before. Wouldn't have stood out particularly.
It probably would have stood out if 16 people linked to one nursing home died over the course of a few days. Maybe you've seen reports similar to that; I have not.
Again, that still doesn't explain what's going on in Italy right now. Or what is happening in Spain right now. Or what happened in South Korea before they took preventative measures. We already have evidence of what happens when this thing takes off, and how transmittable it is.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 2:09 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 2:12 am to Pecker
quote:
It probably would have stood out if 16 people linked to one nursing home died over the course of a few days
that's happened in exactly one nursing home even since we discovered the virus.
So no people wouldn't have noticed if the number was more like seven or eight.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 2:13 am to Pecker
quote:
Again, that still doesn't explain what's going on in Italy right now. Or what is happening in Spain right now
Actually it would. If it started moving out of China earlier then it would have hit those places earlier also. They were also later to the game at blocking China travel and have lower tier your health care along with significantly different living arrangements.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 2:21 am to ShortyRob
quote:I’m willing to believe that 7 or 8 old folks dying with flu-like symptoms, at one nursing home, could be written off to a bad case of flu.
that's happened in exactly one nursing home even since we discovered the virus.
So no people wouldn't have noticed if the number was more like seven or eight.
Now explain what’s going on in the rest of the world. South Korea had teams of people tracking single cases of positive tests and working to identify all contacts they had made. They’ve provided some of the best info we have. They know how transmittable this is, who it affects and what they could have expected if they didn’t take drastic measures. So I’m to believe that the virus was in China in October and in the US in November but didn’t make its way to S Korea? And also believe that it made its way through the US in December but we just brushed it off, no big deal?
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