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GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
8619 posts

LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
Summary

Latest Longroom Polls

Longroom methodology and prior election poll results
MAGA!

The LongRoom Polling Analysis uses the latest voting data from each state's Secretary of State or Election Division. The voting data is kept current by incorporating the latest updates from each state as they become available. This means that the LongRoom Polling Analysis accurately reflects the actual voting demographics, precinct by precinct, county by county, and state by state.

Because the LongRoom Polling Analysis is exclusively data based, it makes it possible to demonstrate from the crosstabs of an individual poll whether that poll is either left or right leaning.

The analysis of the polls of each polling organization and the associated bias is illustrated in a line chart. The most recent poll results are displayed separately and a graphic representation of the amount the poll leans either left or right is shown.

The graphs below cover the last three presidential elections and show the LongRoom Polling Analysis of polls for those elections. In all cases, the LongRoom Analysis was accurate to within +/- 0.3%.


Past Longroom poll performance:
2012: Obama + 3.8 poll vs Obama + 3.9 actual
2008: Obama + 7.1 poll vs Obama +7.2 actual
This post was edited on 8/9 at 9:56 am


Summer of George
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
5024 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
Trump is winning right now and will continue to build lead. She's sick and unfit to be potus.


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235
jackmanusc
South Carolina Fan
Columbia, SC
Member since Apr 2012
3707 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...


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27
cajunangelle
Navy Fan
eating a fried oyster/shrimp poboy
Member since Oct 2012
82400 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
Crooked lost her convention bump forevermore!

It is so hard to believe that anyone falls for her screaching and scream preaching voice of pure bull shite.

The media advised her to lay low because everytime she speaks her numbers drop.


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117
Commandeaux
New Orleans Saints Fan
Zachary
Member since Jul 2009
5314 posts
 Online 

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
2012 all over again.


GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
8619 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

2012 all over again.


Not really, you can see in the link below that longroom was pretty darn close in prior elections.
2012: Obama + 3.8 polls vs Obama + 3.9 actual
2008: Obama + 7.1 polls vs Obama +7.2 actual LINK
This post was edited on 8/9 at 9:46 am


DisplacedBuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2013
42529 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

Unskewed poll results show Trump slightly ahead...


Links aren't working for me. Does "unskewed" mean 50/50?


Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
24735 posts
 Online 

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

Links aren't working for me.


Don't worry about it. Kasich is not in the poll so you need not be concerned.


Homesick Tiger
LSU Fan
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
41604 posts
 Online 

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

Links aren't working for me.


i.e., I'm lazy.


buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
30901 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

2012: Obama + 3.8 poll vs Obama + 3.9 actual
Well this doesn't make sense since "unskewing" the polls would have made it a toss-up if not a Romney victory.


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14
DisplacedBuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2013
42529 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

Don't worry about it. Kasich is not in the poll so you need not be concerned.


It might surprise you, but outside of your weird arse alpha/beta relationship with trump, some of us don't bow to our candidate of choice.

I'm just wondering what "unskewed" means to the betas. If it means an even split among the parties, that's laughable.


Prettyboy Floyd
Georgia Fan
Pensacola, Florida
Member since Dec 2013
12383 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...


courtesy of Pain Train


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221
DisplacedBuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2013
42529 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

i.e., I'm lazy.


Nope. I'm guessing they are from shite sites and they were blocked because of that.


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33
GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
8619 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

I'm just wondering what "unskewed" means to the betas. If it means an even split among the parties, that's laughable.


Here is a section from their methodology page. Not even split but based on voter registration.

The LongRoom Polling Analysis uses the latest voting data from each state's Secretary of State or Election Division. The voting data is kept current by incorporating the latest updates from each state as they become available. This means that the LongRoom Polling Analysis accurately reflects the actual voting demographics, precinct by precinct, county by county, and state by state.

Because the LongRoom Polling Analysis is exclusively data based, it makes it possible to demonstrate from the crosstabs of an individual poll whether that poll is either left or right leaning.

The analysis of the polls of each polling organization and the associated bias is illustrated in a line chart. The most recent poll results are displayed separately and a graphic representation of the amount the poll leans either left or right is shown.

The graphs below cover the last three presidential elections and show the LongRoom Polling Analysis of polls for those elections. In all cases, the LongRoom Analysis was accurate to within +/- 0.3%.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
113445 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

Does "unskewed" mean 50/50?
No. It means the poll is based on using actual voter history from each state's Sec of State's voting records.


DisplacedBuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2013
42529 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

Not even split but based on voter registration.


How do they account for unregistered voters, crossover voting, independents, registered voters that don't vote, etc.?


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25
DisplacedBuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2013
42529 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

voter history


History, or registration?


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
113445 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
Use your phone and read the third link. The details of the methodology are there.


CelticDog
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
26586 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
One fallacy of the poll is not including Johnson and Stein.

between them they are currently polling in the range 7 to 10 per cent in various states.



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01
DisplacedBuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Dec 2013
42529 posts

re: LongRoom poll results show Trump slightly ahead...
quote:

Use your phone and read the third link.




quote:

The details of the methodology are there.


Is there more detail than what's been posted, because that doesn't say anything about voting history or registration. It just says data from what I see, and that doesn't mean anything.


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