re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Just wish the data management wasn't so trash this whole time...

I will be honest, I have thought about putting this to sleep. But then, I tell myself that this is the best holistic view of the data that I've seen anywhere on the net. (I am biased :) ) and I don't want to give up on it.

I think that it’s very likely that Southeast Asian countries have benefited from more broad exposure to coronaviruses in general than the Americas and Europe.

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Interestingly, Asia and the Middle East have previously experienced multiple rounds of coronavirus infections, perhaps suggesting buildup of acquired immunity to the causative SARS-CoV-2 that underlies COVID-19. This article hypothesizes that a causative factor underlying such low morbidity in these regions is perhaps (at least in part) due to acquired immunity from multiple rounds of coronavirus infections and discusses the mechanisms and recent evidence to support such assertions.

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I think the curve is flattening out because cases are actually flat

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Ya, you'd expect this to happen at some point I imagine. An equilibrium so to speak.

Let's hope if that's what it is it remains so. If further openings and loosening doesn't change it, that would be great, as there is no hospital overrun possible at this level, though that standard went out the window months ago.

Unfortunately, since we're entering fall I do not expect much loosening since they've been raising the specter of the winter second wave all year, and are going to hold the line in the fall because of school openings. They are just going to hold the line rule wise, even if no material rise in cases. Might as well settle in for another 6 months of this unless we get vaccine distribution because the powers that be aren't going to do much more from here.

Spring plus vaccine should end this for good. Not my preference but how I'm guessing it will go.

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I will be honest, I have thought about putting this to sleep. 

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Don't do it.

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this is the best holistic view of the data that I've seen anywhere on the net

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Truth.

Looks like the back to school bump is starting in a few places. If it's just cases with no corresponding bump in deaths, then no biggie. Next couple of weeks will be interesting.

All that said, don't abandon the thread now!

Agreed, that and school systems that are about to open testing their staff. Just noticing that both Georgia and Florida were up today over last week, but not by an alarming amount.

It’s been awhile since I properly thanked you for maintaining this.

I view it everyday.

Thanks for all of your time and hard work.

No.

The IHME Model has consistently over-predicted cases and deaths. Anyone with half a brain would take their predictions with a grain of salt which explains why the media is running with it.