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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 9/5/20 at 7:27 am to baybeefeetz
Posted on 9/5/20 at 7:27 am to baybeefeetz
quote:
And use a case fatality rate of 1.4%
Why would you use a case fatality rate an order of magnitude (or more) greater than reality for your subject group?
2
Posted on 9/5/20 at 9:53 am to David_DJS
Highest I've seen from any reputable source is .55%. Weird to use a rate nearly 3x that. Depending on the source, I've seen as low as .26%, with mean somewhere around .4%.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 10:40 am to David_DJS
That's fatality rate for a group I am privy to. Case fatality rate, based on confirmed cases.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 11:24 am to baybeefeetz
CFR is not IFR. CDC IFR in the US is estimated at 0.65%, up from its peak *earlier estimate of 0.36%.
Let’s assume 50MM infected so far. 20% is 66MM. Using the broad base IFR for that 16MM yields 104k deaths, but that include high risk elderly and other at-risk population. The infected population since June has skewed young. Let’s use the IFR for those under age 20-49 (0.04%). That’s 6,400 deaths. There is a LOT that can be done to improve this, but I’m just trying to show that you can’t just take the standard IFR and apply it to the population. It ignores the voluntary actions by at-risk populations to isolate themselves from infection.
Let’s assume 50MM infected so far. 20% is 66MM. Using the broad base IFR for that 16MM yields 104k deaths, but that include high risk elderly and other at-risk population. The infected population since June has skewed young. Let’s use the IFR for those under age 20-49 (0.04%). That’s 6,400 deaths. There is a LOT that can be done to improve this, but I’m just trying to show that you can’t just take the standard IFR and apply it to the population. It ignores the voluntary actions by at-risk populations to isolate themselves from infection.
This post was edited on 9/5/20 at 11:43 am
Posted on 9/5/20 at 11:30 am to AUMIS01
quote:
Highest I've seen from any reputable source is .55%. Weird to use a rate nearly 3x that. Depending on the source, I've seen as low as .26%, with mean somewhere around .4%.
And that's before all the old folks and too sick/incapable of working younger folks are taken out of the fatality rate equation.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 11:38 am to baybeefeetz
quote:
That's fatality rate for a group I am privy to. Case fatality rate, based on confirmed cases.
Do you seriously believe the number of people who have/had the virus is even remotely close to the number of confirmed cases reported? Especially for young people, it ain't.
The fatality rate for reasonably healthy 20-50 yos is negligible. "Negligible" in the context of the inane hysteria surrounding COVID-19.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 11:42 am to baybeefeetz
quote:
Say herd immunity threshold is 20%. And let's say you limit your calculation to only those people who work in the US, which is 155 million. And use a case fatality rate of 1.4%. That's still 400k something people dead. People who are fit enough to work. This shite isn't going away, is it?
This is the dumbest shite I’ve read today. But you’re typically a dumbfrick.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 6:44 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
Posted on 9/5/20 at 6:48 pm to the808bass
why don't you link me some of your brilliant predictions on this virus.
This post was edited on 9/5/20 at 6:55 pm
Posted on 9/6/20 at 6:44 am to baybeefeetz
Posted on 9/6/20 at 6:56 am to TigerDoc
quote:
TigerDoc
Posted on 9/6/20 at 6:57 am to DMAN1968
We're all guilty of wishcasting every now & then. 
Posted on 9/6/20 at 8:56 am to baybeefeetz
There is not a true fatality rate of 1.4%, retard.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:21 am to TigerDoc
It wasn't a thing then. Media didn't care until they needed to change their agenda again.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:25 am to Crimsonians
Is India eventually going to pass the US in cases? Look how little they have tested per their population. Their numbers are going crazy.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:27 am to Tiguar
quote:
There is not a true fatality rate of 1.4%, retard.
Nor can you restrict the fatality rate of the whole population to the “working population.” Especially when the fatality rate is so tightly tied to age.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:32 am to TigerDoc
quote:
TigerDoc
I’m pretty sure that was a comment in regards to the rapid narrative shift of the media to George Floyd, you stupid frick.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:35 am to Jrv2damac
I don't think so, but I'll humor your melt here. What about this one?
Blah. Increasing cases is almost useless.
Since he's a master of IFR, he should know that more cases means more deaths, right?
Blah. Increasing cases is almost useless.
Since he's a master of IFR, he should know that more cases means more deaths, right?
This post was edited on 9/6/20 at 9:37 am
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:36 am to TigerDoc
quote:
Since he's a master of IFR, he should know that more cases means more deaths, right?
Does it?
How many deaths from all the new cases at universities?
And since you actually linked the post, the percent of increase as a comparison in areas where the first round of Covid hadn’t really even hit yet is absolutely useless.
This post was edited on 9/6/20 at 9:37 am
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:37 am to the808bass
Cases beget cases, Bass.
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