re: Which jobs are at risk due to AI?

Lou, appreciate the support.

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A lot of the stuff in the bottom half of this chart (i.e., below CPI) is produced in industries with relatively higher degrees of automation. New cars have actually way undershot overall inflation which seems very hard to believe but I guess that’s what the data is. Also worth noting that until Sleepy Joe came in, inflation itself was actually pretty low and stable. So that’s pretty amazing. Then you have all of those electronics that have actually been decimated in terms of price, to the benefit of consumers.

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I'll take this a step further: Every single one of the red curves is an industry that has seen epic administrative and/or regulatory bloat.

Medical - Administrative costs in hospitals are estimated to be 2/3rds of their operating expenses and have risen 87% 2011-2023. The expenses are driven heavily by billing complexity, insurance systems, regulation, compliance, and IT overhead. All of that can roll to AI.

Academia - administrative growth has consistently outpaced both enrollment and inflation. A good chunk of this comes from various forms of DEI. Even if they do try to remain DEI, the compliance aspects can at least be done by AI cheaper than a new dean's office.

Housing and Food - Ever increasing code requirements and regulations there too, something AI can help with.

There is a lot of friction in the system that AI can eliminate/replace/minimize before it ever starts to really affect truly productive workers.

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I work in IT and I'm not sweating in the least bit. I'm also almost 50. My job still requires a decent amount of physical work, and I'm probably old enough to miss the robots

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I work in IS, and I’m just hoping for 20 more years. I feel like I have enough soft skills to keep me around at a minimum the next 10 years.

I also look at it from the perspective that if we’re all getting replaced by AI and I have enough money in the market by the time that it happens it will be irrelevant to me, because corporations will be so profitable that my investments will be able to float me by the time that I’m replaced anyway.

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Until other greedy capitalists come in and compete away their margins by lowering the price to consumers

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Only to sell out as soon as their valuation reaches anything life changing and feed back into the monopoly where prices stay high

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Humans prefer dealing with other humans

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Driving is too stressful for Gen Z. Most would probably prefer driverless cars. I'd also be willing to bet that the Boomer generation is having more sex than Gen Z, which is crazy.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned yet--AI just came out. All the errors it makes will be ironed out. There are also already versions so powerful that the companies haven't released them yet, like Claude Mythos.

Give it 10 years. Give it 5.

George Carlin had a good line--'Think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are stupider than that.'

Also a lot of people self-admit that their jobs are 'busy work' or entirely unnecessary.

Comparing it to previous industrial / tech revolutions or saying that it'll create jobs for the people who need to oversee the AI--this revolution replaces the human being with AI / machines, and you'll need one person to oversee the AI that can do the work of 1,000 people or more.

Things are about to completely change.

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What do you think democratic politicians will want to do if x amount of the population is living on comfortable retirement savings

I work in upper mgt corporate accounting (manufacturer). We have already implemented AI to run several large datasets and analytics. Nobody is being laid off. We just now can spend more time reviewing and analyzing to make better, quicker decisions on pricing, rebates, freight costs, logistics, and standard cost models. Now we aren't hiring anyone new right now...but I'm busier than I've ever been as are the people downstream of me. Also...AI fcks up daily. We laugh at it regularly.

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Larry Leo's

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So less Paige and better spelling/grammar. I'm good with that.

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A lot of jobs are safe from AI.


Nothing is safe from AI+robotics.

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+1

When AI reaches AGI, then the efficacy of robots will grow exponentially as AI designs them The world will be altered from being built primarily for humans to being built for robotic efficiency.

One of two economic situations will take over, both will fail. Either a communist society where AI/robots do all the work tooth to tail, and humans live in some level of leisure or a capitalistic society where the .0000001% have all the resources and the rest live essentially destitute. Neither will work with humans involved but it may not last long enough for the humans to bring it down, because at some point the sentient robots will see us at best pets or at worst pests.

We might be able to control it, but it is unlikely because nobody knows how to set the guard rails (and many of the most powerful people don;t want them). Setting guard rails today is like shooting in the dark, we don't have the capacity to anticipate the issues and once we realize them it will likely be too late.

Eliminate the lawyers. A majority that I have met mimic lying thieves.