re: Which jobs are at risk due to AI?

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That will be a shite ton of people losing jobs I would imagine.

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Lots of credible people speculating sustained 10-25% long-term unemployment starting in the next couple of years. The real challenges with this particular industrial revolution are that (1) it's happening quickly across all sectors of the economy at the same time, so people have less time to retrain and adapt, and (2) as you pointed out, we'll just need far fewer workers doing most tasks.

I think people and economies will adapt, but we're in for a rough 10-15 years.

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Accountability is still a thing. You can’t fire AI.

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Old quote from 1979 at IBM, still applies, although people have forgotten:

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Larry Leo's

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I believe he's already AI and has been for the last few years.

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Lots of credible people speculating sustained 10-25% long-term unemployment starting in the next couple of years.

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That would cause total economic collapse in the US. Restaurants, just about any retail store, hotels, car dealerships, banks, etc. Like 1/3rd of them would go out of business, so those people would all lose their jobs too.

You'd also have collapsing tax revenue to local, state and federal governments.

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That would cause total economic collapse in the US. Restaurants, just about any retail store, hotels, car dealerships, banks, etc. Like 1/3rd of them would go out of business, so those people would all lose their jobs too.

You'd also have collapsing tax revenue to local, state and federal governments.

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Yep, that's what people are missing. The government literally can not let that happen, they will legislate it out if necessary.

I think there are two ways civilizations burn out. Those that came before us and those abroad (other parts of the universe). One is meteor or comet. The other is AI. This is why I don’t think it’s strange if we haven’t been visited by aliens and if we have or do, I think it’s a 99% chance they are artificial/bots.

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I’m a lawyer and I’m sweating balls I’ll tell you that

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Lots of credible people speculated that mortgages were solid bedrock so in the name of short term gains, they stacked them up into flimsy piles of shite and got ratings agencies to brand them as top shelf investments.

Credible and otherwise intelligent people say and do stupid and/or self serving things all the time.

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At this point, there's ample evidence that the job loss trends are legit and tracking with some of the estimates. It doesn't take much to research it. Don't just read what the venture capital crowd who's funding AI is saying, read what the geeks who built & are building these platforms are saying.

Anecdotally, I've been experimenting with several LLMs in my work for the past 3 years. Their progress in what they can accomplish in terms of meaningful work (once trained and properly configured) is amazing. It's affected my business positively, but at the same time I've been able to avoid hiring and/or contracting entry level people because the AIs save me so much time with lower-level tasks.

So I stand by what I said originally. It's going to effect every industry to various degrees on varying timelines, but in the end we are going to need less human workers. That's going to be a big problem for the next decade or so while whatever the new norm is shakes out.

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software developers is laughable. Anyone that thinks current AI is going to replace programmers in the next 20 years is nuts.

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I think that is the most intriguing job category. There have been massive tech layoffs attributed to AI in the past two years, but that looks more like short-term profit grabbing and disruption to me.

I saw Sam Altman interviewed several months back, and his theory is that if devs can suddenly generate 30x more code using AI, the amount of new use cases and innovation will generate demand for 30x more code to build whatever the next generation of stuff is and train AIs to do it.

Hard to say. The only part that's certain, IMO, is that how devs work will change. But it's more like learning to field a new tool than full on replacement.