US fertility rate plummets by a quarter in less than 20 years

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Fertility rates among American women have plummeted by almost a quarter in less than two decades and are set to fall further in the coming years, as roughly one in four births in the US are now to foreign-born mothers, according to government figures.

The total fertility rate in the US is now projected to be 1.58 births per woman in 2025, down from 2.12 in 2007, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office report.

That year, one year before the Great Recession, is the last year that US fertility rates were above the 2.1 figure needed for natural replacement and represents a 25.5% fall in that time.

The data also shows that foreign-born mothers now account for roughly a quarter (between 22 and 25%) of all US births, representing approximately 800,000 to 900,000 children per year.

Immigrants have a higher fertility rate than US-born women, with 1.79 births per woman compared to 1.53 births.

However, both are far below the replacement rate, while the foreign-born fertility rate is set to drop faster than their US-born equivalents in the coming decades, according to the data.

Between 2026 and 2056, the US total fertility rate is set to fall slightly more from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman, a drop of 3.2%.

The drop among US-born women will be from 1.53 to 1.50 births per woman, a fall of 2%.

In contrast, the drop among foreign-born women is forecast to be from 1.79 to 1.66 births per woman by the year 2056, a fall of 7.3%.

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