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re: Tornado! - Bassfield, MS rated EF-4 w/ 63 Mile Track, Peak Winds 170 mph
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:28 pm to rds dc
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:28 pm to rds dc
Looking at the 12z GFS and Euro, some pretty big differences in how they handle the cap across the southern portions of the threat area on Sunday. This will play a big role in storm mode and how far south the threat will stretch.
2
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:34 pm to rds dc
quote:
Looking at the 12z GFS and Euro, some pretty big differences in how they handle the cap across the southern portions of the threat area on Sunday. This will play a big role in storm mode and how far south the threat will stretch.
Seems like this could be a multiple wave threat for Mississippi and Alabama. The supercells out in front of the dry line will certainly be a problem, but it seems like the actual squall line itself will also have the potential to be very dangerous.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:51 pm to lsuman25
Its not an Easter Sunday in the south without a major tornado outbreak
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:53 pm to rds dc
quote:
Some of the various analogs being produced, big hitters and nothing burgers.
So light shower to April 27, 2011. That’s one way to not get a forecast wrong I guess
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:56 pm to deltaland
quote:
So light shower to April 27, 2011. That’s one way to not get a forecast wrong I guess
Analogs aren't intended to be a forecast.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 2:10 pm to rds dc
NWS Peachtree City just hosted a 10 minute webinar on this storm for the ATL area.
YouTube LINK
YouTube LINK
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 3:00 pm to rds dc
I can look at the gfs and it can tell me where hurricanes may go, but as far as daily weather patterns I have no clue as to how it works, but from what I do know, it looks like the northern parts of MS and AL are in for a bad time. TN maybe as well.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 3:57 pm to deltaland
quote:
Its not an Easter Sunday in the south without a major tornado outbreak
For God so loved the world, as to give his only begotten Son; that whosoever believeth in him, may not perish, but may have life everlasting.
But you specifically? frick your house.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 3:58 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:07 pm to TigerstuckinMS
This is from the National Weather Service Birmingham’s afternoon forecast discussion:
quote:
To our west, a more certain & organized area of severe thunderstorms will be getting underway. Discrete supercells & convective lines(including embedded supercells) will quickly move eastward. Parameters reveal a nasty setup that will support significant severe storms, with the top-tier concern being strong, long-track tornadoes. Damaging winds & large hail should be expected as well. This activity will arrive in Alabama late in the day/through the evening. As the thunderstorms move through Central Alabama, we`ll have a ~65 knot low-level jet with a ~100 knot H5 jet streak. As surface flow remains slightly backed, enlarged hodographs show SRHof 400-600 m2/s2. This combined with lapse rates holding between 6.5-7 C/km and SB-CAPE >1,000 J/kg indicate we`ll be dealing with a substantial severe weather threat in our area as well. Strong, long-track tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be threats to contend with. This would come from a line of storms with embedded supercells as well as supercells just ahead of the line.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:17 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Seems like this could be a multiple wave threat for Mississippi and Alabama. The supercells out in front of the dry line will certainly be a problem, but it seems like the actual squall line itself will also have the potential to be very dangerous.
Yep, the interesting thing with that kind of juicy atmosphere there are so many small scale features that could trigger some nasty weather in place, of course those are hard to predict when and where they set up which is very un-nerving. Won't allow for much preparedness.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:22 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
For God so loved the world, as to give his only begotten Son; that whosoever believeth in him, may not perish, but may have life everlasting.
But you specifically? frick your house.
Actually, the truth of the matter is the Bible also says it is Satan who comes to kill, steal, and destroy. When Adam and Eve sold us out, he got a crack at us all.
But I'm sure he does appreciate it when folks blame God for the chaos!
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:43 pm to Crimson1st
Did Adam and Eve have belly buttons?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:52 pm to TigerstuckinMS
They were created in God’s image no? Does god have a belly button?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 4:58 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
For God so loved the world, as to give his only begotten Son; that whosoever believeth in him, may not perish, but may have life everlasting.
But you specifically? frick your house.
God makes NO earthly promises except that we WILL suffer.
Think eternally, not temporally.
For this light momentary affliction is preparing for us an eternal weight of glory beyond all comparison, 18 as we look not to the things that are seen but to the things that are unseen. For the things that are seen are transient, but the things that are unseen are eternal. 2 Cor 4:19
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:32 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
God makes NO earthly promises except that we WILL suffer.
Clubber Lang is god!
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:33 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Parameters reveal a nasty setup that will support significant severe storms, with the top-tier concern being strong, long-track tornadoes. Damaging winds & large hail should be expected as well.
The 18z 3k NAM looks pretty messy for Sunday with lots of junk convection out across the warm sector. That could work to keep things in check.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:39 pm to rds dc
quote:
The 18z 3k NAM looks pretty messy for Sunday with lots of junk convection out across the warm sector. That could work to keep things in check.
Hope so.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 5:57 pm to rds dc
Another note on models, the HRRR now runs out to 36hrs on the main cycles. It has shown an extreme bias towards discrete convection in the longer range. So take it with a grain of salt when the 36hr map with monster supercells spread across Louisiana and Mississippi is posted out there.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:00 pm to rds dc
I must have heard explosive cyclogenesis on the radio 30 times today. Granted it was the same report being repeated.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:03 pm to BPTiger
the latest ABC3340 entry this evening has us up to a 4/5 for severe weather Sunday. normally where I am in Birmingham, potential tornadoes miss north or south of us, but this past year we had 2 go within a mile either side of us - 1 on the ground, and one that lifted and then touched down a few miles past us.
Sunday has me a bit on edge
Sunday has me a bit on edge
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