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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 4/10/20 at 8:47 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Am I correct in my believe that the worst will be north of BR?
Can't say at this point, all of Louisiana is currently highlighted as Enhanced or Moderate.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 8:56 am to rds dc
Yea, I saw after I asked that question that WAFB posted the same graphic but with the black hatched area over all of the BR area, meaning a significant risk of wind gusts to 75+mph, hail to 2” in diameter, and/or strong EF2 or greater tornadoes.
I want a new roof but I’d like to have to only get a new roof, not a new house. Days like what Sunday is shaping up to be have me on my toes. Give me a category 3 hurricane but keep tornadoes far away from me!
I want a new roof but I’d like to have to only get a new roof, not a new house. Days like what Sunday is shaping up to be have me on my toes. Give me a category 3 hurricane but keep tornadoes far away from me!
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 9:02 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:16 am to TDsngumbo
Hey, Daddy needs a new roof too! 
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:20 am to fishfighter
Every spring and summer I pray for hail big enough to damage my roof. One of these days it’s gonna happen. I just hope it’s not when the roof is already 20 years old
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:22 am to rds dc
quote:
Some of the various analogs being produced, big hitters and nothing burgers.
There is one analog in particular there that is very concerning, 4/27/11. I won’t even suggest the possibility that this event will be on that level, as that was a generational event, but it’s interesting and concerning to see it come up.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:31 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Question, what does the various analogs mean?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:41 am to rds dc
I have MS and get flares when weather is severe. I have one symptom I call tornado twitch- I named it this after living in DFW for years. I woke up with it today. Let's hope it's wrong. Sometimes it will go away if the storm shifts. It's a mild case, but will let you guys know if it gets worse-- if tornados are near it gets incredibly painful. ( usually precedes severe weather by 24-72 hours) I am in Baton Rouge.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:47 am to 4EvEr Bo REIN
quote:
Question, what does the various analogs mean?
There are various computer models that compare the upcoming setup to past outbreaks and then list the closet matches. This can work pretty good for large scale stuff like cold fronts, heat waves, flooding rain events, etc. since those are driven mostly by large scale features. The analog systems really struggle with severe weather events, since small scale features that can't be resolved until the day of the event often are what make or break things.
For Sunday, the analogs show everything from one of the worst events ever to basically nothing happening
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:46 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
but with the black hatched area over all of the BR area
What does "hatched" signify? The NWS Peachtree City used this to describe the area covering us in their models, but I'm not familiar with the term.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:48 am to SM6
Reed Timmer throwing out the date of the major 2011 outbreak (think Tuscaloosa EF-4) to describe the setup for this weekend
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:52 am to SM6
quote:
What does "hatched" signify? The NWS Peachtree City used this to describe the area covering us in their models, but I'm not familiar with the term.
quote:
Significant severe areas (referred to as "hatched areas" because of their representation on outlook maps) refer to a threat of increased storm intensity that is of "significant severe" levels (F2/EF2 or stronger tornado, 2 inches (5.1 cm) or larger hail, or 75 miles per hour (121 km/h) winds or greater).[15]
Storm Prediction Center Wikipedia page
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:52 am to rds dc
Oh no we better shut more stuff down
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:57 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
There is one analog in particular there that is very concerning, 4/27/11. I won’t even suggest the possibility that this event will be on that level, as that was a generational event, but it’s interesting and concerning to see it come up.
The wording on al.com’s severe weather warning has me anxious. Sounds like we’re going to see some shite on Sunday.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:15 pm to rds dc
Sunday is going to be nasty. Our worst severe weather events are when the low rolls up through Texas close to Shreveport.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:18 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
That's not what I want to hear
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:19 pm to TigerstuckinMS
That's done heavy shite right there.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:22 pm to rt3
quote:
Reed Timmer throwing out the date of the major 2011 outbreak (think Tuscaloosa EF-4) to describe the setup for this weekend
There are still plenty of issues with this setup that can keep it from being historic or even really bad. Day 3 Mods are rare, only 18 issued by SPC and only 3 over the last 5 years, so people tend to go right to the high end analogs.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:46 pm to rt3
quote:
Reed Timmer throwing out the date of the major 2011 outbreak (think Tuscaloosa EF-4) to describe the setup for this weekend
I've followed Reed's storm chases for a few years now. He was in Tuscaloosa on 4/27.
Hate to hear him say this. Hoping he's wrong.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 1:07 pm to rds dc
Update from SPC for Saturday
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