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Started By
Message
re: Reports of over 20 young camp girls missing In TX floods
Posted on 7/7/25 at 2:41 pm to 257WBY
Posted on 7/7/25 at 2:41 pm to 257WBY
quote:
By your account, there was two hours to get campers to safety. That’s plenty of time to save all campers. They will have lost forty campers when this is over. Just saying it was a fluke storm doesn’t cut it when you’re in charge of young children.
You have the benefit of hindsight here. We can all clamor for an alarm system but it wasn't in place. It's also storming and cabins are spread out, so sounding a siren from a bullhorn isn't foolproof either.
One person is awake, the security guard. They alert the full-time paid staff. Some of those staff were there in 1987, they know what flooded then and how long it took for the water to rise from that storm.
You start at the cabin closest to the river. It's not as simple as waking the counselor in that cabin. You've got to get them up, alert, and clearly communicate next steps on where they need to go. They then have to do that for 20 girls in the cabin. Remember, 30+ years ago it took over 2 hours for the worst of the flooding to arrive...so you've got time.
Then you move to the next one. You've got scared, frightened 8-12 year olds that you're trying to evacuate uphill in the dark and rain. They're also trying to put on shoes, grab special items. But still, it's okay...you've got time...until you don't.
As you're getting those cabins to the safe spot, it looks like that location is going to take on water this time...so now you've got to begin planning to relocate them and still rescue those from the last few cabins. But the wall of water hits.
quote:
My wife and daughter have camped and counseled in that area. I want a safer alert system before my future granddaughters attend camp there.
Your wife and daughter are 2 of the probably 100,000+ campers that have been in this area in the last 40 years and have been safe from the floods. Previously there were 10 kids that passed away but only after they tried to load them on a bus to safety and crossed a highwater point.
This post was edited on 7/7/25 at 2:46 pm
1
Posted on 7/7/25 at 2:41 pm to 257WBY
quote:
The families that enjoy the camps in the Hunt area can afford to purchase and maintain flood gauges.
Historically, the warning system has been a call from upriver that a flood is coming. Time to use a better system.
There really isnt that many people upstream here. Quickly you reach very large ranches.
There is not that many more miles of river upstream in the traditional sense either. This isnt like the Guadalupe further downstream that has a constant flow. Its usually a trickle of water in a dry riverbank with occasional swimming holes created by old dams. After that, its a headwater with a number of dry drainages converging into the valley.
You do have enough road crossings where you could do something that a certain water level triggers an alarm. It will be a needed undertaking regardless.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 2:55 pm to Mr Sausage
Yep spot on. This is actually pretty close to the headwaters of the Guadalupe. Upstream not far it just becomes alot of dry washes and relatively open areas where the watershed expands significantly. Its maybe 10-15 miles from there to the first set of camps on the Guad. Not really easy to have a single gauge with significant warning time downstream.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 2:58 pm to 257WBY
quote:
By your account, there was two hours to get campers to safety. That’s plenty of time to save all campers. They will have lost forty campers when this is over. Just saying it was a fluke storm doesn’t cut it when you’re in charge of young children.
My wife and daughter have camped and counseled in that area. I want a safer alert system before my future granddaughters attend camp there.
You make alot of assumptions with just fractions of the details and context. It wasnt a fluke storm. It was a flood of a magnitude that no one there had ever seen.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 2:58 pm to CapitalTiger
Fair point, but wife remembers Walter Cronkite coming in by helicopter to pick his daughter up from the ‘78 flood.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 3:02 pm to Mr Sausage
Pretty good knowledge of the area and what happened. I just worked 33 years in a critical safety field, so probably judge safety issues and plans a bit harsher than the average person.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 3:09 pm to 257WBY
quote:
Pretty good knowledge of the area and what happened. I just worked 33 years in a critical safety field, so probably judge safety issues and plans a bit harsher than the average person.
Curious. Why was it safe enough for your daughter to attend?
Posted on 7/7/25 at 3:11 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Used to be a tornado warning meant one had been sighted. You got one maybe one a year. Now they're radar indicated and it's not unusual to get multiple warnings in a day. I think it does lead to complacency.
It used to be that a whole bunch of tornadoes were missed, too. The increased number of tornadoes per year that we are seeing isn't because more tornadoes are happening, it is because we have the radar tech to confirm them early and put in the effort to confirm the damage afterward.
False alarms are an issue, and will always be an issue. It is still a better problem to have than no alarm at all.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 3:11 pm to 257WBY
9 feet higher than 1987 but only a foot higher than 1932 record.
Historic Crests
1. 36.60 ft on 07-02-1932
2. 28.40 ft on 07-17-1987
3. 23.50 ft on 08-02-1978
4. 22.80 ft on 10-19-1985
5. 21.40 ft on 08-13-1981
6. 19.73 ft on 10-28-1996
7. 18.96 ft on 10-16-2018
Posted on 7/7/25 at 3:15 pm to CapitalTiger
I was dumber when daughter went. I did a bit of a deep dive when daughter was counselor and heard about the “call from a rancher up river” flood alert system.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 3:15 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
9 feet higher than 1987 but only a foot higher than 1932 record.
That's also when the gauge stopped reporting.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 3:50 pm to UnitedFruitCompany
quote:
The night security guard starting wailing and getting the ball rolling at a little before 2am
So if camp started evacuation procedures at approximately 2 AM, that gave them an approximate 1-2 hour evac process?
Sirens keep getting mentioned as a safety/warning measure. If sirens had been installed, other than a siren blaring to indicate flood is coming and signaling severity to those that can hear it, how much more warning time could the the camp have had?
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:02 pm to John Casey
Changing tracks for just a second: one of the most potent videos I've seen was of a young teenage counselor whose cabin was on higher ground. She got her campers out safely & over time, got them to buses for transport to a medical facility. Many of their parents were there by then as they were boarding the buses. The counselor started losing it when she described seeing parents of missing campers running from bus to bus, looking for their children. She said she will never forget the looks on their faces as they realized their children weren't there.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:16 pm to Keltic Tiger
quote:
She said she will never forget the looks on their faces as they realized their children weren't there.
how could anyone? Its absolutely the worst feeling thinking about this.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:17 pm to CapitalTiger
quote:
There is. It's called a Flash Flood Emergency vs. Flash Flood Warning.
I do see a Tornado Emergency versus Warning versus Watch at the national level, but the 2019 move to “Impact-Based format to improve public response” for the WEAs for flash flooding which seems to have the Flash Flood Emergency header is still glossed over under a link to a PDF almost 6 years after it was supposedly implemented. Regular FF Warnings are still issued but only sent out as a WEA if emergency and catastrophic and then have an Emergency header (but still technically considered Flash Flood Warnings).
Instead of just changing when some flash flood warnings are sent by WEA and others are not I am not sure why a Flash Flood Emergency alert with description was not officially added as an alert along with a comparison to other flash flood alerts like is done with Tornado watches, warnings, and emergencies. If they want to keep it consistent with tornado then make warnings more specific and add a Flash Flood Watch for situations like where I keep getting warnings without any floodings or even close to it anywhere around us.
The current flood alert comparisons with no mention of Emergency WEAs until you read 2019 pdf.
quote:https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-watch-warning
Flash Flood Warning: Take Action! A Flash Flood Warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring. If you are in a flood prone area move immediately to high ground. A flash flood is a sudden violent flood that can take from minutes to hours to develop. It is even possible to experience a flash flood in areas not immediately receiving rain.
Flash Flood Warnings are changing to an Impact-Based format to improve public response. Read the factsheet (from 2019).quote:
(part of info on factsheet) - Only high-level flooding will trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs).
Once IBW format is fully implemented, WEAs will be limited to only those FFWs with the damage threat tags of “Considerable” or “Catastrophic”, and third party vendors will be able to identify and extract the “emergency” language in the FFWs.
Currently, all FFWs trigger WEAs, which are free notifications delivered to your mobile device.
Public perception is that the NWS over-alerts FFWs, and the Federal Emer- gency Management Agency (FEMA) has noted a large number of complaints about overnight WEAs for FFWs with perceived little impact.
With this change to impact-based FFWs, the NWS is aiming to improve the public response to Flash Flood Warnings by providing easily readable information and issuing WEA alerts only for flash flood events that require immediate life-saving action.
Flood Warning: Take Action! A Flood Warning is issued when the hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. A Flood Warning is issued when flooding is imminent or occurring.
Flood Advisory: Be Aware: A Flood Advisory is issued when a specific weather event that is forecast to occur may become a nuisance. A Flood Advisory is issued when flooding is not expected to be bad enough to issue a warning. However, it may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten life and/or property.
Flood Watch: Be Prepared: A Flood Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for a specific hazardous weather event to occur. A Flood Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for flooding. It does not mean flooding will occur, but it is possible.
Tornado alert comparisons
quote:https://www.weather.gov/safety/tornado-ww
Tornado Watch: Be Prepared! Tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. Review and discuss your emergency plans, take inventory of your supplies and check your safe room. Be ready to act quickly if a warning is issued or you suspect a tornado is approaching. Acting early helps to save lives! Watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center for counties where tornadoes may occur. The watch area is typically large, covering numerous counties or even states.
Tornado Warning: Take Action! A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. There is imminent danger to life and property. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle, or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Warnings are issued by your local forecast office. Warnings typically encompass a much smaller area (around the size of a city or small county) that may be impacted by a tornado identified by a forecaster on radar or by a trained spotter/law enforcement who is watching the storm.
Tornado Emergency: Seek Shelter Immediately! A tornado emergency is the National Weather Service’s highest alert level. It is issued when a violent tornado has touched down in the watch area. There is a severe threat to human life and property, with catastrophic damage confirmed. Immediately seek refuge in the safest location possible. Call friends and family who are within the watch area to ensure they are aware of the situation. If you see a tornado approaching, do not attempt to outrun it in a vehicle; shelter in place. Once safe, be sure to monitor your local forecast for the latest updates.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:19 pm to Keltic Tiger
Have a link? Was that at Mystic?
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:21 pm to John Casey
quote:
So if camp started evacuation procedures at approximately 2 AM, that gave them an approximate 1-2 hour evac process?
Sirens keep getting mentioned as a safety/warning measure. If sirens had been installed, other than a siren blaring to indicate flood is coming and signaling severity to those that can hear it, how much more warning time could the the camp have had?
I think the issue here (and this is me guessing obviously), while they knew a flash flood was coming, no one in their wildest nightmares thought it would be of this magnitude and impact cabins and a hall that had never flooded before at the camp. Per the counselors onsite, they were told 2-3 inches of rain earlier in the day (which out there can be a flash flood). We can debate the naivety of that all we want.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:28 pm to Mr Sausage
Reading the TexAgs thread - there seems to be some accounts that water was coming from above Camp Mystic - not just rising from the river - maybe from other creeks. Don’t know the area so not sure if plausible or true. If true, I’m sure that wildly changes any dynamics on the ground.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:33 pm to Gris Gris
If victims have not been found by now, it’s likely they will never be found. As described in some recent posts, this part of the Guadalupe is extremely rugged and rocky with many low water crossings built over culverts and small dams that create pools. The area is also teeming with wildlife.
Most of the victims of the 2015 Wimberly/Blanco River flood were never found. Look up the history of that flood and you will see these events are entirely foreseeable. Maybe not exactly where, but all the rivers in the Hill Country act the same during floods.
Most of the victims of the 2015 Wimberly/Blanco River flood were never found. Look up the history of that flood and you will see these events are entirely foreseeable. Maybe not exactly where, but all the rivers in the Hill Country act the same during floods.
Posted on 7/7/25 at 4:43 pm to Fletch1985
This tragedy is bad enough, but not to be able to get the bodies of your loved ones to go through the other stages of grief and goodbyes is horrendous.
I don't believe in "closure", but I do believe that services, especially in these sudden tragic situations help with facing the reality of losing a loved one and moving forward in grieving. Perhaps, celebrations of life/memorials will help.
I don't believe in "closure", but I do believe that services, especially in these sudden tragic situations help with facing the reality of losing a loved one and moving forward in grieving. Perhaps, celebrations of life/memorials will help.
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