re: Reports of over 20 young camp girls missing In TX floods

It may have also caught up in Schreiner state park area. There's a dam there and between that and 480 bridge there really isn't much in terms of trees and structures. As kids we'd bike from our house to center point road and swim in the guad since it was easy to access and flow was always slow. There's an area where center point road that crosses the Guadalupe that may have trapped more debris.

Taken from a quick search of news updates:

quote:

---

The death toll now stands at 70 in the wake of torrential rains and the resulting flooding in Texas.

By far the greatest number of fatalities occurred in Kerr County, where 59 people are believed to be dead, according to officials, including 21 children.

In Travis County, four people are believed dead, with three dead in Burnet County, two in Kendall County, and one death each reported in Tom Green and Williamson counties, county officials have said.

At least 21 children are among the dead, including campers from a summer camp in the area, Camp Mystic, where 11 children and an adult counselor remain unaccounted for, according to Kerr County officials at a Sunday press conference.

Search and rescue operations are ongoing

---

A great post by James that needs to be read by many asshats yelling from the sidelines:

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

quote:

---

TEXAS FLOOD: There are many questions about the tragic flash flood on the Guadalupe River late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The death toll is now over 50, including some children who were at Camp Mystic.

Here are some key points about the warning process...

*A flash flood watch was issued for Kerr County at 12:41a CT (just after midnight Thursday night). The watch mentioned isolated rain amounts of 10 inches, and stated "Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks." This followed a flash flood watch that was issued Thursday afternoon.

*A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14a CT For Kerr County, which mentioned "life threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers".

*A flash flood "emergency" was issued at 5:34a CT for Kerr County and the Guadalupe River.

*NWS Austin/San Antonio had five on staff during the event; normally two would be on duty. Extra staffing was planned before the event started.

*This type of flash flooding on the Guadalupe River is nothing new. Similar events happened in 1998, 1978, 1935, and 1921. This year's event was related to deep moisture from a tropical system (Barry) that originated in the East Pacific and made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico, on June 29.

Social scientists will do much research on this in coming months and years. In my opinion one of the primary problems is the high number of false alarms; flash flood warnings that are issued with only minor flooding involved. This is also a problem with tornadoes in many parts of the country. I am very thankful locally NWS Birmingham leads the nation in lowering the false alarm ratio.

One takeaway is the importance of having a NOAA Weather Radio at every home, business, and any place where there are large number of people gathered (like a camp on a river). I would imagine cell service is very spotty along the Guadalupe where the camps were located. NWR does not use cell service and will wake you up. The alert is very loud, and can't be missed.

Again, I ask that you keep political rhetoric off the comment section here; left wing and right wing extremists are pushing false information and narratives are not close to the truth. Now is simply the time to support families that are suffering after the tragedy.

We will have a long discussion on this event with the WeatherBrains crew tomorrow night. In addition to the audio podcast you can watch it live as well on the WB YouTube Channel: YouTube.com/weatherbrains

---

quote:

---

In my opinion one of the primary problems is the high number of false alarms; flash flood warnings that are issued with only minor flooding involved. This is also a problem with tornadoes in many parts of the country. I am very thankful locally NWS Birmingham leads the nation in lowering the false alarm ratio.

---

This is an issue in South Louisiana also. The amount of weather events we’ve cancelled school, shut down events, etc for seems to be at an all time high.


Eventually people treat it like the boy who cried wolf and stop preparing.

Some guy named Cord Shiflet was just live on the scene on Facebook and looks to be part of rescue at some level. He's reporting that two girls were found alive, 27 feet up in a tree. No other info, always take it with a grain of salt.

Reports of two girls found 27 feet up in a tree alive an hour ago. It’s from a guy leading search efforts on the ground. He was live about an hour ago. Miracle if true

From what I can gather he is a legit dude and leader of some sort of citizen group so not some random person on twitter.

quote:

---

The amount of weather events we’ve cancelled school, shut down events, etc for seems to be at an all time high.

---

This is a separate issue from the warning system and false alarms. The closures and such stem from our overly-litigious society and decision makers being terrified of lawsuits.

Spann is talking about in situation warnings that don't verify, and I agree with him to an extent. The warning process and resultant warnings aren't just for the people at home, they're for all interests in the area. You don't just account for people in their living rooms. You have to also account for everyone whose daily lives put them out in the weather, civilian drivers, truckers, farm interests, infrastructure management and resources in the field, outdoor events and their organizers, etc.

A normal flash flood warning may be of little concern to 95% of the population, and they will see no impacts from most of the warnings. That other 5% has to be accounted for as well, though, and that is where the real balancing act comes in with public messaging.

quote:

---

Reports of two girls found 27 feet up in a tree alive an hour ago. It’s from a guy leading search efforts on the ground. He was live about an hour ago. Miracle if true

---

I’d love for that to be true. That’s likely where they would have survived. I would be somewhat shocked if no one survives with that many missing, hopefully a couple got lucky and were able to hold onto something

Kerr County Lead running the story on Facebook. He’s supposed to be a legit source.

Story on the two found

LINK