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TDsngumbo
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Member since Oct 2011
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I read on stormcast that the potential for 12” of rain is there with this. It’s very early but that raised my eyebrows a little. Then of course the Gulf is warmer than normal right now and the atmosphere is expected to be conducive for development so if this develops a closed off low then the whole northern Gulf coast needs to watch it closely.


Impotent Waffle
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
7168 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
No just no..... I'll take a little rain but got no time for 12' of rain..


TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2011
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Well it’s very early and although there are lots of pros and others there who know what they’re talking about, it’s also full of wishcasters, too. But models are products of professional data and they’re indicating up to 12” in some areas is possible.

Truth is, though, until “it” is over the Gulf and develops a closed LLC we’re going to get very conflicting data on location and “strength”. Time will tell which output is correct.


notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
41629 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

it’s also full of wishcasters


quote:

Time will tell which output is correct.


Ground breaking info.


TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2011
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Hey, I never claimed to be an expert


JudgeHolden
LSU Fan
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
I just need to know how likely this is to eff up the Stones concert in NOLA next Sunday night.


Jake88
George Mason Fan
LSU/Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2005
37897 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Does this thing lead to rainy weather in Atlanta next Monday and Tuesday?


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mxs1998
New Orleans Saints Fan
Parts Unknown
Member since Nov 2005
530 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

I just need to know how likely this is to eff up the Stones concert in NOLA next Sunday night.



Unless they remodel the Dome with an open roof in the next week, you should be fine.


GEAUXT
USA Fan
Member since Nov 2007
25316 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

It literally rained in the neighborhood across the street from me the other day yet not a drop here for multiple weeks. My water bill last month was $150 and my grass is still browning even with the sprinkler system running each morning this month


Yep, Friday we got back to our house after being gone for a few days. I noticed there was water standing around and I could see a cell had just moved through. There was even water standing at the front of my neighborhood...but my yard was bone dry.


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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
115824 posts
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

I just need to know how likely this is to eff up the Stones concert in NOLA next Sunday night.
You can't always get what you want.....


Hangit
LSU Fan
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
15626 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
The thing that is bothering me for this season is that it has been in the high 80's and up to the high 90's in central Florida for months. This means the water temp is going to strengthen all those hurricanes that come off of Africa in August.

I hate it.


JudgeHolden
LSU Fan
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
8189 posts
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

You can't always get what you want.....



I just don’t want to be caught in a cross fire hurricane.


Jake88
George Mason Fan
LSU/Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2005
37897 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

The thing that is bothering me for this season is that it has been in the high 80's and up to the high 90's in central Florida for months. This means the water temp is going to strengthen all those hurricanes that come off of Africa in August.
I don't think it correlates like that. In S.E. La the summer hasn't been that bad until this past week. We've had several cooler than normal evenings when I've actually gone out on the back patio for drinks. Anectdotal, of course.


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14552 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Not much change in the overnight models with the Euro still being the most aggressive and farthest west.

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019070700/ecmwf_ow850_watl_8.png


The GFS is weaker and moves the system inland over NE FL and off to the NE.

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019070700/gfs_ow850_watl_29.png


Based on the modeled upper level setup, a track farther west will allow for a stronger system (more time over water and less shear) and a track towards the NE will be weaker (more shear and land interaction). As of right now, the operational Euro is on the far western side of guidance with the majority of the Euro EPS members favoring the NE track and a smaller cluster supporting the westward and stronger solution.

Image: https://i.ibb.co/Mp7KD8b/us-cyclone-en-087-0-euro-2019070700-15843-481-240.png


Carville
Army Fan
Sunshine, LA
Member since Jun 2014
4576 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

You can't always get what you want.....


I just don’t want to be caught in a cross fire hurricane.

I"m with you. Gimme Shelter.


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62
TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2011
17616 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
quote:

The thing that is bothering me for this season is that it has been in the high 80's and up to the high 90's in central Florida for months. This means the water temp is going to strengthen all those hurricanes that come off of Africa in August.

There’s a lot more to it than just water temperatures. A storm could be sitting over 95 degree water for days but would fall apart if dry air or strong wind shear were to move in.

It takes perfect setups for storms to develop and strengthen. Warm water is just one of the ingredients.
This post was edited on 7/7 at 9:56 am


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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14552 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
A somewhat decent analog for this upcoming pattern is Debby from 2012, this kind of solution would make peoples heads explode today

Forecast from NHC:

Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/AL042012_5W_003_0.png/800px-AL042012_5W_003_0.png


Actual track:

Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/02/Debby_2012_track.png



TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2011
17616 posts
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re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
That would piss so many people off today


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rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14552 posts

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
NHC up to 50%

Image: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form late week while the low meanders near
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday. Interests
along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake


Mudminnow
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
32619 posts
 Online 

re: Office Barry thread - Significant Flooding Potential
Wow 50% chance now


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