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re: Nate silver: the slowdown in CV19 cases in NOLA is unlike anything we have seen elsewhere

Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:46 pm to
Posted by cable
Member since Oct 2018
9735 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:46 pm to
Now that’s a hot take.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
89412 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

How much money are we talking? And what is "significant"?



You're gonna collect from this dummy and Mr. Perfect. COVID gonna fund your retirement
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41925 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

The real stats will be to look at deaths per month this year compared to last year, and I’d bet a lot of money there won’t be a significant difference


What's your number? I'm in to take your money.
Posted by djrunner
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2010
5666 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

t’s almost like this is a typical flu virus.




Remind me the last time we locked down an entire major American city because of influenz


Yea and remind me the last time the flu killed 1000 ppl in LA in March/April. If it wasn't for shutting everything down, this would have been horrible and all you pussies bitching about staying at home would be bitching about not being told to stay at home.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

The real stats will be to look at deaths per month this year compared to last year, and I’d bet a lot of money there won’t be a significant difference


Actually will likely be lower during COVID months.

People aren't getting sick or injured from anything else because of this. Steep decline in trauma incidents and even steeper in non-COVID communicable disease.

It is nuts when you look at hospital data how healthy our population looks outside of COVID compared to same months in prior years.

Posted by mostbesttigerfanever
TD platinum member suite in TS
Member since Jan 2010
5034 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:48 pm to
most people in NOLA already got over the Wu-Flu by mid March
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:48 pm
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

I can remember when this was the big news item of the day. What a simpler time it was.

I remember it like it was 48 days ago.
Posted by CptRusty
Basket of Deplorables
Member since Aug 2011
11740 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

The real stats will be to look at deaths per month this year compared to last year, and I’d bet a lot of money there won’t be a significant difference


Correct. There seems to be some skewing of data going on to rubber stamp as many deaths as possible with "Corona Virus", but overall I have my doubts as to whether this will even be a blip on the radar.

In 2018 we had about 7,800 deaths per day in the US. The reported CV deaths per day have been hovering around 1500 - 2000...so we would expect to see a ~%20 increase in total deaths for the months of March and April. Not holding my breath.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:51 pm
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

Now that’s a hot take.


Thanks! It's so hard to come up with them this late in the game.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:59 pm
Posted by Odysseus32
Member since Dec 2009
10224 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

LaToya is Ghana take credit for this.


Well she sure takes shite when things go wrong, so I'd say she deserves a bit of credit.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29134 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

You're gonna collect from this dummy and Mr. Perfect. COVID gonna fund your retirement




I give them every chance to backtrack too.

If anything, though, I'll just ask for proof of a donation to a charity of my choice in the amounts of the bets.
Posted by TaderSalad
mudbug territory
Member since Jul 2014
26695 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

It’s almost like this is a typical flu virus.



Posted by skullhawk
My house
Member since Nov 2007
27998 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

Maybe the shelter in place actually worked...


It helped but I think it shows these hot spots have a higher percentage of asymptomatic carriers/mild cases compared to other areas so you reach this certain level of local herd immunity. It'll be interesting to see if NYC starts to see a similar trend.

Unfortunately I think the places that locked down with very little cases are going to see explosions pop up as restrictions are loosened.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

so I'd say she deserves a bit of credit.


she's still an idiot at the end of the day
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
86738 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

In 2018 we had about 7,800 deaths per day in the US. The reported CV deaths per day have been hovering around 1500 - 2000...so we would expect to see a ~%20 increase in total deaths for the months of March and April. Not holding my breath.


but you are not factoring in overlap deaths, decrease in vehicle accidents, and other deaths that have been mitigated by the shut downs

it will more than likely be a wash
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
75980 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:53 pm to
false, we're literally hours behind Italy.

please send Federal funds so we can cover up the frick ups we've previously made and provide even more handouts to those who don't pay taxes. k, thanks.

Posted by Pandy Fackler
Member since Jun 2018
21114 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

Wow.

It’s almost like this is a typical flu virus.



You're a smooth brain.


I've been waiting to use that. Thanks for coming off as a dumdum.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
63690 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:54 pm to
quote:



Remind me the last time we locked down an entire major American city because of influenza.



I think that's his point (right or wrong)
Posted by NIH
Member since Aug 2008
125108 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:55 pm to
We need 1.4 million ventilators in New Orleans
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:55 pm to
quote:

You're a smooth brain.

I don't think there's supposed to be a space. Just one word: smoothbrain.

It is one of my favorite insults, too, because smoothbrains won't understand it.
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