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re: Nate silver: the slowdown in CV19 cases in NOLA is unlike anything we have seen elsewhere
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:56 pm to WaydownSouth
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:56 pm to WaydownSouth
quote:
The real stats will be to look at deaths per month this year compared to last year, and I’d bet a lot of money there won’t be a significant difference
Ding..ding...ding!
Where are the heart attacks too? American heart Association showing large turndown in reported cases coming into ER's...Hhhhmmmmm…..
Where have all the heart attacks gone?
4
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:56 pm to WaydownSouth
Bingo
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:56 pm to Salmon
quote:
but you are not factoring in overlap deaths, decrease in vehicle accidents, and other deaths that have been mitigated by the shut downs
it will more than likely be a wash
Vehicle accidents I can buy, but that should be a really easy one to parse out.
If it's even close to a wash, then this whole shutdown was a massive frick up.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:57 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
#nolastrong or something
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:57 pm to Tigahs24Seven
Haven’t we shown that respiratory and pulmonary issues are comorbidities for this virus? Wouldn’t it stand to reason that those who were already unhealthy in the sense of compromised systems would be the ones this hurts the worst?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:59 pm to Golfer
quote:
It likely helped. But it is clear as day that this virus attacks those already in high-risk health situations.
I'm not trying to play the "muh underlying conditions" card, but the hospitalization/death rate of those who are even moderately healthy is damn near close to zero.
Seems like this thing gets into the community, attacks the weak, then moves on.
What are you saying?
That the "weak" was more succeptible to getting infected?
If so, are you saying the number of remaining "weak" is too low to maintain the exponential growth?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:59 pm to Tigahs24Seven
quote:
Where are the heart attacks too? American heart Association showing large turndown in reported cases coming into ER's...Hhhhmmmmm…..
Where have all the heart attacks gone?
Did you even read your own link?
FYI - statistics on things like heart attacks, strokes, etc. aren't compiled until 3-4 months after the time period the data occurs in.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:59 pm to Tigahs24Seven
be careful questioning the CV19 stats. you'll get called a Q-thread Politard or a tin foil hat wearing conspiracy believer or at the very least insensitive.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:00 pm to Dizz
Apparently you haven't visited a home improvement store lately. Lawn fertilizer must be a cure.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:00 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Apparently New York subways are still busy in operation.
Yeah, the Star Trek teleportation system to beam all the health, sanitation, electric company, supermarket workers directly from their homes to work isn't yet in place.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:01 pm to BHS78
2x4’s too
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:01 pm to djrunner
quote:
If it wasn't for shutting everything down, this would have been horrible
Can you be more specific? How horrible would it have been?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:02 pm to BHS78
quote:
Apparently you haven't visited a home improvement store lately. Lawn fertilizer must be a cure.
Yes, there are people at Lowe's and the grocery store. but this is still a tiny fraction of the normal amount of people you have interacting with each other.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:02 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:I posted that article yesterday.
Did you even read your own link?
It is an interesting take.
What are your issues with it?
quote:Here is a quote from that very article.
FYI - statistics on things like heart attacks, strokes, etc. aren't compiled until 3-4 months after the time period the data occurs in.
What is striking is that many of the emergencies have disappeared. Heart attack and stroke teams, always poised to rush in and save lives, are mostly idle. This is not just at my hospital. My fellow cardiologists have shared with me that their cardiology consultations have shrunk, except those related to Covid-19. In an informal Twitter poll by @angioplastyorg, an online community of cardiologists, almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks; about 20 percent reported more than a 60 percent reduction.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:02 pm to wm72
quote:
Yeah, the Star Trek teleportation system to beam all the health, sanitation, electric company, supermarket workers directly from their homes to work isn't yet in place.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:03 pm to CptRusty
quote:
If it's even close to a wash, then this whole shutdown was a massive frick up.
well I think making it close to a wash was kinda the point
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:04 pm to Scruffy
Scruffy, don’t you know anecdotes are only acceptable when they are used to peddle fear? Informal polls and individual or minor groups of doctors are irrelevant if they paint a picture of cam and control.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:05 pm to Scruffy
quote:
I posted that article yesterday.
It is an interesting take.
What are your issues with it?
That he quotes the American Heart Association as reporting a reduction of heart attacks which 1) isn't in the article and 2) isn't true.
quote:
Here is a quote from that very article.
What is striking is that many of the emergencies have disappeared. Heart attack and stroke teams, always poised to rush in and save lives, are mostly idle. This is not just at my hospital. My fellow cardiologists have shared with me that their cardiology consultations have shrunk, except those related to Covid-19. In an informal Twitter poll by @angioplastyorg, an online community of cardiologists, almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks; about 20 percent reported more than a 60 percent reduction.
I read the article when it came out last week. It's interesting but not all that telling. There was an exponential rise in deaths at home in NYC last week that may be related but there isn't a lot of good data on this yet to really lean one way or the other.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:07 pm to SECdragonmaster
quote:
Wow.
It’s almost like this is a typical flu virus.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:07 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:It has nothing to do with “painting a picture of calm and control”.
Scruffy, don’t you know anecdotes are only acceptable when they are used to peddle fear? Informal polls and individual or minor groups of doctors are irrelevant if they paint a picture of cam and control.
My view is that those who made models and predictions of quickly crushed ERs and overrun hospitals based, at least a part, on the normal ER population remaining at the pre-covid level.
Instead, that population and the covid population HEAVILY overlap, and rather than accounting for that, patient predictions resulted in double counting.
Other factors are people just not going too.
No one will really know until data is released in the coming months.
Worst case scenario is we see a spike in deaths due to other causes because people have been avoiding the hospital, which will likely happen to a degree no matter what.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 1:10 pm
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