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re: Nate silver: the slowdown in CV19 cases in NOLA is unlike anything we have seen elsewhere
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:08 pm to moneyg
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:08 pm to moneyg
quote:
Can you be more specific? How horrible would it have been?
You tell me Sparky. Based on your knowledge of this disease, if we wouldn't have shut down everything how would it have been?
Knowing that Schools and Airlines have been two of the incubating places for this disease, tell me if just those two aspects of our normal lives would not have been shut down how much worse this could have been and why.
1
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:12 pm to CptRusty
quote:
In 2018 we had about 7,800 deaths per day in the US. The reported CV deaths per day have been hovering around 1500 - 2000...so we would expect to see a ~%20 increase in total deaths for the months of March and April. Not holding my breath.
You have to account for fewer automobile deaths, workplace death, and general accidents that cause death. While of course, the murders haven't stopped violent crime has seen a noticeable decrease.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:13 pm to wm72
quote:
quote:
Apparently New York subways are still busy in operation.
Yeah, the Star Trek teleportation system to beam all the health, sanitation, electric company, supermarket workers directly from their homes to work isn't yet in place.
I'm not suggesting there's a viable alternative at this point. Just that you have to realize it, among other things, is why it will be more slow to slow down there than in a place like New Orleans, that had a big one off annual event that drew about a million people together at the most inopportune time it could have happened.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:14 pm to Salmon
quote:
well I think making it close to a wash was kinda the point
no. "the point" was that we were told this was going to be millions of deaths without sheltering in place, and even with the extreme measures still as many as 250k deaths. We aren't even going to sniff that.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:15 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
There is literally nothing to do downtown when the city is shutdown. Nobody is on the street which is helping the cause.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:15 pm to CptRusty
quote:
In 2018 we had about 7,800 deaths per day in the US. The reported CV deaths per day have been hovering around 1500 - 2000..
yeah but those people would have died anyway
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:15 pm to DomincDecoco
She looks like a man. Looks like she has to shave every morning as well. 
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:16 pm to saint tiger225
quote:
She looks like a man. Looks like she has to shave every morning as well.
I think the ugly ballerina realtor thread is over there --->.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:18 pm to CptRusty
quote:
no. "the point" was that we were told this was going to be millions of deaths without sheltering in place, and even with the extreme measures still as many as 250k deaths. We aren't even going to sniff that.
Or as few as 30,000 deaths which we will probably hit within a week.
See, that's the thing about model ranges - there is a top and bottom and when you base all your opinions on the top-end range it shows everyone that you are retarded.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:19 pm to Dizz
quote:
You have to account for fewer automobile deaths, workplace death, and general accidents that cause death. While of course, the murders haven't stopped violent crime has seen a noticeable decrease.
Again, if all we've done is trade these deaths for coronavirus deaths, then this was a massive frick up of a decision.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:20 pm to tigerskin
Corona doesn’t like hot temperatures. Nola going to be fine.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:20 pm to Tigahs24Seven
quote:
Where are the heart attacks too? American heart Association showing large turndown in reported cases coming into ER's...Hhhhmmmmm…..
Where have all the heart attacks gone?
That link doesn't mention the AHA at all. It also doesn't source any statistics from any other organization that typically releases such information. That article is a fluff piece based on anecdotes. It is completely devoid of any real information.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:20 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:From a one on one standpoint, I completely agree, but those top numbers were spewed as “fact” by “experts” for weeks and no one called them “retarded”.
See, that's the thing about model ranges - there is a top and bottom and when you base all your opinions on the top-end range it shows everyone that you are retarded.
I believe that that is what people are most frustrated about.
They didn’t sell us a bill of goods based on the lower edge or even the average/middle.
They sold on the worst case scenario peak.
And then told everyone that the worst case scenario would happen even if we did social distancing/mitigation.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:21 pm to CptRusty
quote:
Again, if all we've done is trade these deaths for coronavirus deaths, then this was a massive frick up of a decision.
So instead we should have done nothing where these deaths would have compounded upon one another and COVID deaths would exponentially higher?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:22 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Or as few as 30,000 deaths which we will probably hit within a week.
See, that's the thing about model ranges - there is a top and bottom and when you base all your opinions on the top-end range it shows everyone that you are retarded.
A) I made it clear in my post that there was a top and bottom range of estimated deaths. Work on that reading comprehension.
B) 30k is a revised low estimate number. In early march the low range was 250k.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:25 pm to CptRusty
quote:
no. "the point" was that we were told this was going to be millions of deaths without sheltering in place, and even with the extreme measures still as many as 250k deaths. We aren't even going to sniff that.
oh
ok
you're just ranting
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:25 pm to moneyg
quote:
What are you saying?
That the "weak" was more succeptible to getting infected?
No. Infection rate doesn't seem to care about age, gender, health condition.
quote:
If so, are you saying the number of remaining "weak" is too low to maintain the exponential growth?
I'm saying that the stay at home orders, combined with virus' inability to have a significant impact on those that are at least moderately healthy mean that it can't have these drastic impacts on the healthcare system as originally predicted.
The antibody test will be interesting to determine how/why this virus worked through the population the way it did.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:25 pm to CptRusty
It still means fewer people die is that a bad thing? If thousands died even with shelter in place "told you that shite wouldn't work". Deaths decline following shelter in place "told you this was a nothing burger and none of this shite was needed."
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:25 pm to CptRusty
quote:Uh, it's not a "trade". The shutdown reduces both. No shutdown would increase both.
Again, if all we've done is trade these deaths for coronavirus deaths, then this was a massive frick up of a decision.
It's as if nobody bothers to think before putting in their two cents.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:25 pm to Scruffy
quote:
From a one on one standpoint, I completely agree, but those top numbers were spewed as “fact” by “experts” for weeks and no one called them “retarded”.
Journalists are not virology or statistical experts.
quote:
I believe that that is what people are most frustrated about.
I understand that. But that is also why I don't watch network or cable news.
quote:
They didn’t sell us a bill of goods based on the lower edge or even the average/middle. They sold on the worst case scenario peak.
I'd have to go back and look at the transcripts but I'm pretty sure no expert involved with the government said 2.2 million people will die unless we lock down.
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