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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:56 pm to
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
25615 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:56 pm to
Marco downgraded to a TS at 10 pm update it’s looking like
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75267 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:58 pm to
quote:

The official forecast is still Hurricane Marco, but this nowhere close to a hurricane. Marco has been decimated by shear and has steadily been weakening. The pressure has come up around 10 MB and winds are under hurricane force. The mid-level center is racing away to the north-northeast. The low-level center is moving to the north-northwest. I do not think southeast Louisiana will receive significant impacts. Far eastern Louisiana could, but other than not much rain either. Very localized flooding remains and storm surge possible as wind on the eastern side pushes water against the north Gulf coast. Wind threat will be on the eastern side as well

Sounds like they watched Levi's last video.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
44965 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:58 pm to
quote:

but 60-70% of storms spend their entire life within the cone.


It’s like saying pick a number from 1-10 and then the answer being 12.
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
102137 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:58 pm to
That sounds correct. Why the downvotes?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51758 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:58 pm to
Come on NHC give us the new Marco cone.
Posted by slinger1317
Northshore
Member since Sep 2005
7056 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:59 pm to
Looks like Marco gonna be a dud
Posted by CaptainJ47
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
7801 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:59 pm to
Marco is really not the one I am worried about. Precursor to the entree.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51758 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:59 pm to
10pm CDT Tropical Storm Marco cone

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75267 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

Laura is currently forecast for the Hurricane Lili trek across GOM...

Just picked different sides of Cuba.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14315 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm to
Both Marco and Laura have a pressure of 1000 millibars.

One is strengthening and the other is weakening.

Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MARCO HAS WEAKENED...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 87.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

Marco is feeling the effect of strong southwesterly shear. The
center, as identified by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft, is displaced to the southwest edge of the convective
canopy. That said, Marco has not quite fully decoupled yet and has
moved well right of the previous forecast. Data from the plane
indicates that Marco has weakened; the highest flight-level winds
were only 58 kt with unflagged SFMR winds just above 50 kt.
Marco's intensity has been lowered slightly to 60 kt, but this is
probably generous.







As expected.
This post was edited on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147183 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm to
Posted by lsusteve1
Member since Dec 2004
47870 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

Marco is really not the one I am worried about. Precursor to the entree.



If Laura keeps slipping East, not good for BR Area

shite could get real over next few days.....hoping it doesn't
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
95034 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

as the crow flies.. New Iberia to Baton Rouge? 50 miles?


52.3

Posted by CaptainJ47
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
7801 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm to
I feel like this Marco is moving NNW more than this model gives credit for
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75267 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

Why the downvotes?

Whoever it was should have at least credited Levi.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:01 pm to
Marco is just the pre-bar beer you drink to prep your system
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21551 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:02 pm to
quote:

Decoupling starting? Looks like it.


About 12hrs behind our thinking but as long as it happened before landfall is all that really mattered. However, this has been a pesky little system but shear is finally winning out.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40230 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:02 pm to
Sigh. The nursing home where I work is in new Iberia. I’m guessing they’ll shelter in place — idk at what point they evacuate.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75267 posts
Posted on 8/23/20 at 10:02 pm to
quote:

Marco's intensity has been lowered slightly to 60 kt, but this is
probably generous.

quote:

As expected.

You get the points on that one. You called it word for word.
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