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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/5/22 at 12:34 pm to Lonnie Utah
Posted on 5/5/22 at 12:34 pm to Lonnie Utah
Financial Times article
quote:
Russia’s slow movement in the latest phase could be deliberate, as much as a factor of Ukrainian resistance, Cranny-Evans added. As Russian commanders have reconstituted their forces after April 19, they have sought to play to their military strengths — particularly their superior artillery power — but this is turn has dictated a change in pace and tactics.
“Artillery has become overwhelmingly important for the Russians. It is how they are delivering effects on the battlefield — but it is by nature slow because you are depending on artillery logistics,” said Cranny-Evans.
In traditional Russian military doctrine, heavy artillery bombardment would be married with rapid advances of tanks and infantry — but the resources for this are now in short supply, after the failed military campaign in March. Russia’s commanders may also be chastened by disasters that “bold” thinking got them into, some Nato officials believe.
Russia now appears to be using its superior artillery as a more methodical tool of attrition rather than rapid breakthrough.
According to Arestovych, Russian artillery outnumbers Ukrainian guns by a ratio of 5 to 1, with even greater stores of ammunition.
Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, a defence and intelligence adviser to the Ukrainian government, said Russia had intensified its artillery strikes on the front lines to try to exhaust Ukraine supply. “They want to reach the position where we have no ammunition at all so they can start their land offensive without fear of being destroyed,” he said.
At some point, Russia may aim to shift the gear of such so-called “shaping operations” — not least because of the west’s intensifying efforts to supply Ukrainian forces with heavier weaponry.
3
Posted on 5/5/22 at 12:49 pm to Mr Happy
quote:
Russia’s slow movement in the latest phase could be deliberate,
Ok, people have tried since Feb 24th to assign "higher" motivations to what the Russians are doing and not doing.
Not buying it. And I would disagree about the 5-1 heavy artillery disparity with attrition and the influx of 155s to Uk.
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:03 pm to Eurocat
Damn, when your stooge won't even front for you.
#Putinproblems
#Putinproblems
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:22 pm to Lakeboy7
Russia simply does not have the manpower right now to pull off any significant offensives… as the article states, you need infantry to move forward once the shelling stops… their ground forces are spent.
It can’t be overstated enough how the mistakes in planning on the front end will plague Russia until this war ends…. They simply don’t have enough manpower… and some of their best units were killed in the first two weeks.
To put it in perspective… when Germany invaded France in 1940, they did it with ~3 million troops… Germany had more casualties in the battle of France than Russia mobilized to invade Ukraine (less than 200k).
It can’t be overstated enough how the mistakes in planning on the front end will plague Russia until this war ends…. They simply don’t have enough manpower… and some of their best units were killed in the first two weeks.
To put it in perspective… when Germany invaded France in 1940, they did it with ~3 million troops… Germany had more casualties in the battle of France than Russia mobilized to invade Ukraine (less than 200k).
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:27 pm to lsu777
quote:
initial work on the F22 started in 81 and really is based off of mid to late 80s tech other than the operation systems
[quote]our 4th gen fighters are so superior that we dont even need our 5th gens and the 4th gens are 1970s tech mainly.[/quote
Both great points. I sure hope we have a "raptor killer" about ready to go.
Something that concerns me though is our trend these days for EVERYTHING to be state of the art, cutting edge, maximum cost and maximum build cycle time.
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:28 pm to lowspark12
quote:
Germany invaded France in 1940, they did it with ~3 million troops
Similarly, I think the US had about a million men in the invasion of Iraq, a country about half the population of Ukraine and most of them didn't want to fight for Hussain.
correction, from Wikipedia:
"A U.S. Central Command, Combined Forces Air Component Commander report, indicated that, as of 30 April 2003, 466,985 U.S. personnel were deployed for the invasion of Iraq."
Our allies contributed about another hundred thousand troops.
This post was edited on 5/5/22 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:30 pm to lowspark12
quote:
Russia simply does not have the manpower right now to pull off any significant offensive
Or Tanks. But they are going to conduct "shaping operation"...
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:39 pm to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
maximum cost
honestly this is a myth. As i pointed out, in 2022 dollars the F-14 was more expensive per plane than even the F-35 and much more costly to maintain in real 2022 dollars.
The F-14 is considered by the american public to be some resounding success when it was just a bad arse plane powered by a big ole piece of shite and had tons of crashes.
and i would much rather us take our time and have something that is so far advanced that it takes everyone 2-3 decades to catch up again.
right now we can rule the sky against any and everyone with just the 4th gen fighters. The only exception to that would be the 5th gen fighters china and russia have.
well its one thing to have a plane...totally different to have planes that are combat ready with capable pilots. Russia has zero of these. China has very very few.
Posted on 5/5/22 at 1:40 pm to Mr Happy
In hindsight, it’s completely asinine to think they could pull all this off with 200k troops… a country the size of ukriane while invading on essentially 3 fronts.
western militaries have a long (unflattering) history of fighting as expeditionary forces… Russia has no such history. Western military doctrine understands the need for huge numbers of infantry to pull off invasions and occupations. This shite goes back to the romans and up to modern times. Russia is learning that lesson now the hard way.
quote:
the US had about a million men in the invasion of Iraq, a country about half the population of Ukraine
western militaries have a long (unflattering) history of fighting as expeditionary forces… Russia has no such history. Western military doctrine understands the need for huge numbers of infantry to pull off invasions and occupations. This shite goes back to the romans and up to modern times. Russia is learning that lesson now the hard way.
This post was edited on 5/5/22 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 5/5/22 at 2:39 pm to lowspark12
From Kevin Rothrock (Meduza).
quote:
Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:16 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
You know this is going to be a Shitshow when they're posting for people to do their mobilization on indeed
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:20 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
“mobilization experts.”
I believe it, also taking applications for "general officer"
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:24 pm to Enzos Tiny Pito
Think if I'll apply they'll be hard-pressed enough for labor to let me work from home (whereby I'll divert the Ivans to Murmansk)? 
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:34 pm to TigerDoc
Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
Someone translated the job postings:
LINK
I don't know if it's for military or not, but it still looks like a duck
Someone translated the job postings:
LINK
quote:
The first advert (paying $769-1072 (monthly?)) is for a "Police officer of the curfew group" in Moscow. "Duties assigned to a police officer. Members of the unit are not called up for military service. On mobilization. Education at least secondary (complete) general."
The second one is for a "Specialist for mobilization work" and pays from $923. "Maintain mobilization work. Maintain deadlines for reporting to higher authorities. Higher education. Required experience specialist on mobilization work from 3 x years. Good computer skills".
However, it's related to Children's City Outpatient Clinic No. 23 in Tsaritsyno, Moscow. I don't think this is related to the military
It relates to something called NPC Vigstar in Moscow. I think this may be a research institute
Last one: "Chief specialist for secret work", paying a surprisingly low $384-538. "Conducting quarterly, semiannual & annual reconciliation of secret documents. - Reservations of citizens in the reserve. - Mobilization and mobilization training, defense & emergency situations.
Does "mobilization" have an alternative meaning in Russian business language, like maybe "staff deployment"? I can't imagine a place like the Children's City Outpatient Clinic No. 23 would be a military recruitment centre. This doesn't feel like convincing evidence to me
I don't know if it's for military or not, but it still looks like a duck
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:41 pm to TBoy
quote:
A lot of that shelling is in areas that the Russians are thought to have controlled. Since we can assume (I know this is risky) the Russians are not shelling themselves, it appears that the contested zone is inching back closer to the Russian border.
Would anyone be surprised if it turns out that the Russians are shelling their own lines?
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:42 pm to MAXtheTIGER
quote:
I believe they are trying to drive to the north east of Izyum to disrupt inflows of supplies on the Interstates running north from Izyum.
I think they call them interoblasts
Even after 2+ months of war I am willing to bet the highways in Ukraine are in better shape than I20 in North La.
Posted on 5/5/22 at 3:50 pm to Enzos Tiny Pito
quote:
Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
Posted on 5/5/22 at 5:35 pm to Mr Happy
quote:
According to Arestovych, Russian artillery outnumbers Ukrainian guns by a ratio of 5 to 1, with even greater stores of ammunition.
Raw numbers don't tell the whole story. Ukraine will be getting Excalibur rounds (GPS precision is within 2 meters of target) and BONUS rounds. The BONUS rounds actually hunt down heavy armor.
Popular Mechanics article....
Ukraine’s New Heavy Artillery Will Cause Russia a World of Pain
This post was edited on 5/5/22 at 5:36 pm
Posted on 5/5/22 at 5:44 pm to cypher
quote:
Ukraine will be getting Excalibur rounds (GPS precision is within 2 meters of target) and BONUS rounds. The BONUS rounds actually hunt down heavy armor.
Next couple of weeks is going to be interesting.
Posted on 5/5/22 at 5:47 pm to Lakeboy7
(Unsubstantiated rumor)
https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1522341848794247169
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Makarov
I think this is the newest surface combatant in the Russian navy.
https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1522341848794247169
quote:
There is currently an unsubstantiated rumor that the frigate "Admiral Makarov" was hit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Makarov
I think this is the newest surface combatant in the Russian navy.
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