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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:03 am to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:03 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
That’s inconsistent with all of the Russian messaging to date. And Russian tactics, with their avoidance of heavy firepower, and the Russian attempts to separate civilians from combatants.
You expect the Russians to be upfront and honest about the atrocities they are committing in Ukraine?
1
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:11 am to OldmanBeasley
Based on what we know about Spetznaz in Donbas, MH-17, the Skripals, Wagner mercs in Africa, Litvenenko, I'm pretty sure we can trust that Putin would be admitting if he had Einsatzgrupen running around in Ukraine. 
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:13 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Having chosen war, Putin doesn’t have a choice but to fight it out and win. I don’t think they’ll settle for anything less than half of Ukraine.
And this is how Putin will be removed from power. No chance in hell Russia will take 1/2 of Ukraine given the level of support and motivation of the UKA
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:16 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
No chance in hell Russia will take 1/2 of Ukraine given the level of support and motivation of the UKA
The Russians have much greater resources.
quote:
And this is how Putin will be removed from power.
Who would do that? I think it’s wishful thinking.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:29 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Having chosen war, Putin doesn’t have a choice but to fight it out and win. I don’t think they’ll settle for anything less than half of Ukraine.
If that is the metric they are fricked. With NLAWS and MANPADS (like the Starstreak from the UK), drones, and Czech el at T72s pouring into Ukraine I think half of Ukraine is well out of Putin's reach. The Donbas region and retaining Crimea and adding a land bridge and control of the canal is looking like the best outcome for Russia.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:38 am to Obtuse1
quote:
The Donbas region and retaining Crimea and adding a land bridge and control of the canal is looking like the best outcome for Russia.
That sounds reasonable.
What I am seeing also is that Russia is setting up a grand and brutal battle for the eastern lands. Perhaps the current strategy is to draw the entire Ukraine military into a bloody fight over the eastern lands with the goal being to try to wipe out the Ukrainian army, opening up the country for a second push to conquer with no forces left to resist.
The interesting move may be for the Ukrainians to not fully engage the Russians in the Eastern front. Just hold the front line to a standoff. I have no personal experience in actual military strategy, having gotten no closer to combat than 9th grade ROTC. But for those who have had some military experience, how do you see this playing out?
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:40 am to Tigeralum2008
Kamil Galeev is a great follow on twitter. He's been expecially good the last several days. LINK
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:40 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Russians have much greater resources.
No they dont. Have you been objectively paying attention the last 6 weeks?
They cant replace what they lose daily in materiel and personnel. And thats unfortunate, because their "front line people and materiel" is garbage.
The EU and US will pump whatever is needed in to Ukraine to bleed Russia down.
quote:
Who would do that?
As to who or whom will remove Putin it will be one of the security agencies that has the resources to do it. I think there is no doubt you have to kill him he isnt stepping aside.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:49 am to TBoy
quote:
But for those who have had some military experience, how do you see this playing out?
war is inherently political and regardless of military experience most of us dont have a good understanding of political will within the different parts of Ukraine.
Ukraine is unique in that for its overall size it doesnt actually have a great deal of usable maneuver space. This means that the Russian military will struggle to mass the effects of its combat power without massing its forces and making them easy targets.
IMO if Ukraine decides to resist and not surrender.....I dont see how russia takes anything other than the two break away regions with their current force package size. It's just too small.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:49 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
First, they’ve already paid whatever price they were going to pay.
I doubt they have seen the worst. Near term they are likely to default on their debt which will kill foreign investment for years. Investment which will be critically needed since they are in the process of losing the EU energy market. This will take longer but at some point they will need investment to build gas lines to other markets (if they can find them).
Indicators point to the EU being free of Putin's energy leverage within two years (admittedly my estimation). No matter what Putin does going forward it appears that the EU will no longer be an energy market for Russia. At such he will have a much reduced market to fund his petrostate.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:52 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Russians have much greater resources.
Outside of bodies, not really given the Wests involvement to date.
As for the bodies, they are deploying cadets and conscripts from military schools (per Ukraine) LINK so they are already running then on "quality" soldiers to deploy.
Hell they are pulling troops back from Georgia LINK and pushing in mercenaries from Syria and Chechnya.
To top it all off they are having HUGE morale issues going as far as cutting off their troops from any internet access LINK (again Ukraine source)
To me, a layman, screams that Russia is already struggling for bodies.
And then equipment
They are already running out of parts to make additional tanks
LINK
They can't get aircraft parts from China to repair anything LINK
Meanwhile Ukraine is able to outsource all of this with EU countries. For example, the Czech Republic is providing tanks and repair parts LINK
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:52 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
First, they’ve already paid whatever price they were going to pay. Sanctions won’t get worse than they are now
Speaking of wishful thinking. Nor does Russia have greater resources as others have said. Maybe in pure manpower but Ukraine is getting top of the line weapons systems from us/ eu, Russia is using old Cold War shite. No one is providing them with shite.
This post was edited on 4/7/22 at 10:54 am
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:54 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Who would do that? I think it’s wishful thinking.
The invisible hand that actually runs Russia today
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:55 am to cypher
quote:
I doubt they have seen the worst.
But the muh Ruble is back!
quote:
Near term they are likely to default on their debt
The US blocked their bond interest payment on the current bond call yesterday. That triggers the default process on that particular bond(s).
Posted on 4/7/22 at 10:57 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
No they dont. Have you been objectively paying attention the last 6 weeks?
They cant replace what they lose daily in materiel and personnel. And thats unfortunate, because their "front line people and materiel" is garbage.
The EU and US will pump whatever is needed in to Ukraine to bleed Russia down.
Logistics gury Trent Telenko has been saying for weeks that Russia's window of opportunity starts closing in late April to mid-May. After that their resupply effort breaks down completely.
quote:
As to who or whom will remove Putin it will be one of the security agencies that has the resources to do it. I think there is no doubt you have to kill him he isnt stepping aside.
I'm not a political theorist, but there's a school of thought that successful coups come not from the elites, but the near elites. The people and institutions close to the center of power have skin in the status quo and/or have been co-opted. The next level down sees the power just outside their grasp and have an incentive to do something about it. So, not the FSB but maybe the regular police. Or a regional governor, etc.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 11:01 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
And then equipment They are already running out of parts to make additional tanks LINK They can't get aircraft parts from China to repair anything LINK
Saw a report yesterday that they've run out of one of their lightweight ATGMS because a key component is manufactured in Ukraine. Oops.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 11:08 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
@JulianBarnes
European intelligence officials predicted it would take Russian forces 1-2 weeks to regroup before pressing an attack in eastern Ukraine. Putin is desperate for some kind of win by May 9.
“What we are seeing now is that the Kremlin is trying to achieve some kind of success on the ground to pretend there is a victory for its domestic audience by the 9th of May,” said Mikk Marran, the director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
Posted on 4/7/22 at 11:16 am to Decatur
quote:
Putin is desperate for some kind of win by May 9.
Will they have anything left to roll out in the parade except for a few non-combat ready T-14s that still have that new tank smell?
Posted on 4/7/22 at 11:17 am to Decatur
What is the significance of May 9?
Posted on 4/7/22 at 11:17 am to WDE24
Date they defeated the (real) Nazis.
Let's see if Timmy can help Putin come out to a few square miles of the Donbas in a flight suit and "Mission Accomplished" banner.
Let's see if Timmy can help Putin come out to a few square miles of the Donbas in a flight suit and "Mission Accomplished" banner.
This post was edited on 4/7/22 at 11:22 am
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