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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/21/24 at 10:50 am to
Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Russia's economy is hanging by a thread, their oil income has dropped significantly, their military was exposed as a paper tiger and Putin survived a mutiny from a warlord... last year. All of that so Russia could take territory they held since 2014, with resources Russia already possesses in abundance.

Ukraine isn't winning, but Russia isn't winning either


Kk so let's stop with the "existential threat" talk, the hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign aid, and the "muh Putin is Hitler".
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42755 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 10:51 am to
quote:

Why is this stickied now? Did the war escalate or something?


Because I told them that if they didn’t sticky the thread, I was going to have to leave my keyboard, fly to Ukraine, and grab a rifle.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42755 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Kk so let's stop with the "existential threat" talk, the hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign aid, and the "muh Putin is Hitler".


Link
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45724 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 10:58 am to
quote:

Ukraine has passed a million then how many has Russia passed? 60k to 80k dead.


So the attacker who typically has higher casualties than the defender actually has less casualties than the defender? Not only does the attacker have less, they have more than 10x less casualties than the defenders?



What kind of drugs are you on comrade and where do you buy them?

ETA: How much brain damage did you sustain in the military?
This post was edited on 3/21/24 at 11:04 am
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45724 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:03 am to
quote:

Makes complete sense considering Russia hasn’t had any setbacks and is steamrolling Ukraine at the rate of 1000 feet per day.


Kyiv in 3 days and Constantinople by Orthodox Easter.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:08 am to
quote:

So the attacker who typically has higher casualties than the defender actually has less casualties than the defender?


Yes, because of the way they’re fighting, and because the Russians largely shifted to the defense in the fall of 22.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45724 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:12 am to
quote:

Yes, because of the way they’re fighting, and because the Russians largely shifted to the defense in the fall of 22.


Did you forget about the Bakhmut and Avdiivka offensives? Russia was on the offensive in Bakhmut from like 9 months in 2022-2023. Russia was on the offensive in Avdiivka for 4 months in 2023-2024.

Seriously, you need to lay off the drugs or get your head examined for brain damage.
This post was edited on 3/21/24 at 11:16 am
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5738 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:18 am to
quote:

The first of the four frigates that Turkey is building for the Ukrainian navy is supposed to be finished in the first part of next year. If Ukraine can use it as a mothership for drone attacks things could get interesting.


Or, they can modify an existing USV to be a tug. Tow the attack USV half way there, for instance, then quick release and the tug returns home. Probably already working on it.

Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8662 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:19 am to
You really are an idiot aren’t you? If Putin told you Ukraine was producing nuclear armed ManBearPigs to take over the world you would believe him wouldn’t you?
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
24350 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:33 am to
quote:

They hit plenty of places, including a couple factories used for drone production. All of this without killing any civilians.

He was speaking specifically about Kyiv getting "fricked" in response to Belgorod. Which didn't happen.

If you have proof, I'd love to see it.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:36 am to
The Pentagon estimate that showed up in The NY Times recently was 63k dead IIRC.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14900 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:38 am to
prigozhin said his Wagner forces had over 20,000 killed in Ukraine (mostly convicts in meat waves)

and Wagner only had around 50k troops in Ukraine. with most of his losses in Bahkmut are.

WIKI - Ukraine-Russia War Casualities

"Confirmed" losses through names are:

40k+ ukraine
45K+ russia
23K+ LPR/DPR

20k wagner.

this is through february numbers

numbers a likely higher on both sides, but gives an idea of rates.

i do not believe Ukraines publised numbers of 433,840 russian casualities, nor do i believe russias published numbers either. actual is somewhere in between



Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45724 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:43 am to
quote:

The Pentagon estimate that showed up in The NY Times recently was 63k dead IIRC.


Where are you getting the millions of casualties for Ukraine from?

ETA: I have researched this over the past few days and if you read the posted screenshots of the documents you will see that ~60,000 KIA is the estimate for the most conservative estimate. Also according to the “internet experts” on various sites, the methodology that the Pentagon used for that estimate only includes the number of KIAs on the battlefield that can be identified as deceased Russians using video and thermal imaging as well as estimates for casualties when equipment is destroyed (i.e 3 KIAs for a destroyed tank). It doesn’t include KIAs that are removed from the battlefield before their body temperature falls or WIA that later die.

quote:

Casualty figures are also listed. One slide refers to as many as 223,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded, and as many as 131,000 Ukrainians.
LINK

This appears to be the most liberal or highest estimate of KIAs that I have seen in the documents that I have been able to review. I have also not been able to find any reliable information about the methodology for these estimates.
This post was edited on 3/21/24 at 12:10 pm
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11915 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:43 am to
quote:

Did you forget about the Bakhmut and Avdiivka offensives? Russia was on the offensive in Bakhmut from like 9 months in 2022-2023. Russia was on the offensive in Avdiivka for 4 months in 2023-2024.


And on the defensive in other places. They expended a lot of resources in men & material in those relatively minor offensives because (1)they didn't have military capability to go on larger offensives that could've captured more significant objectives and (2)they needed a news narrative for domestic consumption that was able to say that Russia was on the offensive, gaining territory, beating NATO and Nazis, bringing glory to the motherland, etc.
This post was edited on 3/21/24 at 11:44 am
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42755 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:48 am to
quote:

Yes, because of the way they’re fighting, and because the Russians largely shifted to the defense in the fall of 22.


Yes, very wise. Using this strategy against the Germans in WW2 saved millions of lives.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42755 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Where are you getting the millions of casualties for Ukraine from?


The Polish General and Lima. You need to catch up.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 11:54 am to
quote:

Where are you getting the millions of casualties for Ukraine from?


If you assume a 3:1 or 4:1 wounded to killed ratio, then your best case scenario is 900k wounded, 300k dead.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13517 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

your best case scenario is 900k wounded, 300k dead.



If the Russians had eliminated 1.2 million Ukrainian soldiers they would have long since been in Kiev and Odessa.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8662 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 12:18 pm to
So i guess all those videos of mass Russians dead side by side in piles is just fake or created then right? I’m sure they all just stood right back up after the picture was taken. Russians really are the dumbest fricking people walking the planet. Do me a favor and go take a nice warm bath with your favorite bottle of vodka then throw the toaster in there with you. You’ll love it.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

If the Russians had eliminated 1.2 million Ukrainian soldiers they would have long since been in Kiev and Odessa.


Somewhere around 75% of those wounded soldiers will return to duty, so you’re looking a total permanent loss of 525k men, this is a bottom end estimate though.

This explains why Ukraine is having manpower problems though, the need for the mobilization bill, and why conscription officers are being so heavy handed.
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