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Posted on 10/24/23 at 7:26 am to cypher
quote:
Russian troops have often conducted an effective defence. However, the existence of Shtorm-Z highlights the extreme difficulty Russia has in generating combat infantry capable of conducting effective offensive operations.
The same is largely true for Ukraine as well; thus the never ending stalemate.
In a sane world, there would be serious efforts to finding an off-ramp from this insane war. It’s patently obvious neither side possesses the military capability to achieve their war goals.
Were I a military advisor to either Putin or Zelensky, my advice to both would be to quote the venerable German Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt when he was asked by Chief of Staff Wilhelm Keitel what they should do after the counterattack around Caen by the II SS Panzer Corps failed to cut the allied beachhead in Normandy in two…
“MAKE PEACE YOU FOOLS!”
Posted on 10/24/23 at 7:46 am to Darth_Vader
that is kind of how i feel
i think russia has alot more resources but sucks with planning and effective strategy
ukraine is better at those things but lacks the overall resources to be able to make any huge advance
because of this and drones etc, we have almost devolved warfare into a WW1 style trench stalemate.
it sucks, but unlike many here i do not feel bad for the russians. They made a choice to end up here. I do feel bad for the overall loss of life and we will see in our lifetime a collapse of russia due to demographics imo
i also believe there will be economic consequences down the road from this. Not because we are spending too much money or anything but more the along the lines of...i think the russian economy and ukrainian economy collapse after this is over.
i think russia has alot more resources but sucks with planning and effective strategy
ukraine is better at those things but lacks the overall resources to be able to make any huge advance
because of this and drones etc, we have almost devolved warfare into a WW1 style trench stalemate.
it sucks, but unlike many here i do not feel bad for the russians. They made a choice to end up here. I do feel bad for the overall loss of life and we will see in our lifetime a collapse of russia due to demographics imo
i also believe there will be economic consequences down the road from this. Not because we are spending too much money or anything but more the along the lines of...i think the russian economy and ukrainian economy collapse after this is over.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 7:50 am to lsu777
quote:
think the russian economy and ukrainian economy collapse after this is over.
The Russian economy, yes. They will be a pariah state. Like Iran but with the reverse demographic problem. No one will invest there. And they will have terminal brain drain.
The international community will rush to invest in rebuilding Ukraine once this war is over. It will experience an orgy of money and corruption and scams. That will last a decade.
THEN their economy will go through the post reconstruction shock phase that will lead to a serious decline and deterioration.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:28 am to lsu777
quote:
that is kind of how i feel
i think russia has alot more resources but sucks with planning and effective strategy
ukraine is better at those things but lacks the overall resources to be able to make any huge advance
because of this and drones etc, we have almost devolved warfare into a WW1 style trench stalemate.
it sucks, but unlike many here i do not feel bad for the russians. They made a choice to end up here. I do feel bad for the overall loss of life and we will see in our lifetime a collapse of russia due to demographics imo
i also believe there will be economic consequences down the road from this. Not because we are spending too much money or anything but more the along the lines of...i think the russian economy and ukrainian economy collapse after this is over
I agree with all this. At this point, I believe the only means capable of breaking the stalemate would be for one side to actually gain air superiority over the other. But, again, Ukraine obviously lacks the air force to do this and Russia, for whatever reason, refuses to employ their Air Force in sufficient strength to do it. My only guess is the Russians know that it would require accepting the loss of most of their Air Force to pull it off.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:34 am to cypher
Russia would be content to hold whatever territory they now claim.
Ukraine would not settle for giving up that much territory.
Ukraine would not settle for giving up that much territory.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:37 am to No Colors
quote:
The Russian economy, yes. They will be a pariah state. Like Iran but with the reverse demographic problem. No one will invest there. And they will have terminal brain drain.
The international community will rush to invest in rebuilding Ukraine once this war is over. It will experience an orgy of money and corruption and scams. That will last a decade.
THEN their economy will go through the post reconstruction shock phase that will lead to a serious decline and deterioration.
A big chunk of the Ukrainian economy will be boosted by this, their digital economy with new apps and software sold to military partners.
With Russia out of Ukraine, they can go back to developing the tight shale oil/gas fields that Russia's 2014 invasion killed.
An interesting tidbit from my German prof in college. Post WWII all college students in Germany had to spend a year helping to rebuild with manual labor before qualifying for a degree, for free.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:49 am to CitizenK
President Zelensky: Ukraine’s full fire control over Crimea just a matter of time
24.10.2023 14:57
As of now, Ukrainian forces have not yet achieved full fire control over the temporarily occupied Crimea and its adjacent waters, but it is just a matter of time.
The relevant statement was made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his online speech at the Second Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“Russian control of the Black Sea and the presence of the occupier’s fleet created an illusion that Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea was insurmountable. In addition to this, the deliberate settlement of Crimea with hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens and the extensive repression by the occupier against all forms of freedom and resistance could create the impression that Crimea was subdued. Now, the illusions are fading away,” Zelensky said.
In this regard, the Head of State emphasized that Ukraine’s Defense Forces had already made Russia’s military fleet incapable to operate in the western part of the Black Sea, and it is gradually retreating from Crimea.
“This is a historic achievement. Recently, the Russian leadership was forced to announce the creation of a new base for the Black Sea Fleet – or what’s left of it – on the occupied territory of Georgia, in the southeastern part of the sea, as far as possible from Ukrainian missiles and naval drones. But we will reach them everywhere,” the President of Ukraine stressed.
According to Zelensky, there are no longer any safe bases or entirely reliable logistical routes for Russian terrorists in Crimea and the occupied parts of the Black Sea and Azov coast.
“As of now, we have not yet achieved full fire control over Crimea and its adjacent waters. But we will. It’s just a matter of time,” the Head of State concluded.
A reminder that the Second Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform is taking place in Prague, the Czech Republic.
Ukrinform
24.10.2023 14:57
As of now, Ukrainian forces have not yet achieved full fire control over the temporarily occupied Crimea and its adjacent waters, but it is just a matter of time.
The relevant statement was made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his online speech at the Second Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
“Russian control of the Black Sea and the presence of the occupier’s fleet created an illusion that Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea was insurmountable. In addition to this, the deliberate settlement of Crimea with hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens and the extensive repression by the occupier against all forms of freedom and resistance could create the impression that Crimea was subdued. Now, the illusions are fading away,” Zelensky said.
In this regard, the Head of State emphasized that Ukraine’s Defense Forces had already made Russia’s military fleet incapable to operate in the western part of the Black Sea, and it is gradually retreating from Crimea.
“This is a historic achievement. Recently, the Russian leadership was forced to announce the creation of a new base for the Black Sea Fleet – or what’s left of it – on the occupied territory of Georgia, in the southeastern part of the sea, as far as possible from Ukrainian missiles and naval drones. But we will reach them everywhere,” the President of Ukraine stressed.
According to Zelensky, there are no longer any safe bases or entirely reliable logistical routes for Russian terrorists in Crimea and the occupied parts of the Black Sea and Azov coast.
“As of now, we have not yet achieved full fire control over Crimea and its adjacent waters. But we will. It’s just a matter of time,” the Head of State concluded.
A reminder that the Second Parliamentary Summit of the International Crimea Platform is taking place in Prague, the Czech Republic.
Ukrinform
This post was edited on 10/24/23 at 8:50 am
Posted on 10/24/23 at 8:57 am to Darth_Vader
quote:The fundamental obstacle to this is the stark dichotomy between what's good for Russia and what's good for Putin (or Putin and his cronies).
In a sane world, there would be serious efforts to finding an off-ramp from this insane war.... “MAKE PEACE YOU FOOLS!”
Ukraine is not anywhere near seeing value in a peace where Russia doesn't withdraw at least to what it and its proxies controlled in January 2022. A peace not involving such a withdrawal would reward Russia and encourage a repeat in a few years. (Well, unless the rest of Ukraine instantly got admitted to NATO, and that doesn't seem plausible.)
For Russia to withdraw to what it had in January 2022, in exchange for a major easing of international sanctions, would IMO be in Russia's best interests. It needs to do whatever it can to crawl back from being an international pariah state. But for Russia to do that would be a massive blow to Putin. He'd show himself to be weak and ineffectual, and maybe seal his own fate. Maybe worse to him, it would forever destroy what he sees as his legacy.
So I can't see how there's a peace that both sides can accept while Putin runs Russia.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:14 am to AGGIES
quote:
Russia would be content to hold whatever territory they now claim.
I disagree with this. Russia wouldn't be launching an offensive campaign with the resource commitment they are currently doing if that was the case
ETA they also don't own 100% of any province they annexed so Russia would have to have to give up claimed territory to freeze the lines today
This post was edited on 10/24/23 at 11:20 am
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:27 am to AGGIES
quote:
Ukraine would not settle for giving up that much territory.
What is the alternative?
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:27 am to nitwit
quote:
Erdogan continues to play both sides.
They know they are in the most advantageous geographic location on earth. I would play the shite out of this card everyday. They should be the most prosperous country in the world.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:40 am to Pfft
quote:
hey know they are in the most advantageous geographic location on earth. I would play the shite out of this card everyday. They should be the most prosperous country in the world.
Thanks to the Newtron/Clinton tax code changes they gained a lot from US companies getting paid to move manufacturing overseas with many opting for Austrian subsidiaries with new manufacturing in Turkey.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:45 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
In a sane world, there would be serious efforts to finding an off-ramp from this insane war. It’s patently obvious neither side possesses the military capability to achieve their war goals.
Russian "peace" includes Ukraine not able to join EU/NATO. That's unacceptable.
I'm fine letting things end here and now, as long as Ukraine is able to join the EU / NATO. If Russia is unwilling to drop that requirement, keep feeding Ukraine better and better weapons until the fighting stops.
This post was edited on 10/24/23 at 9:47 am
Posted on 10/24/23 at 9:58 am to Tiger985
quote:
What is the alternative?
Ukraine can surrender or keep fighting.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 10:48 am to Tiger985
quote:
What is the alternative?
Taking back the territory
Posted on 10/24/23 at 11:23 am to AGGIES
quote:
Taking back the territory
How is that going?
What is the timeline for achieving this goal?
Posted on 10/24/23 at 11:31 am to Tiger985
quote:
How is that going?
What is the timeline for achieving this goal?
I guess that you would allow squatters to live in part of your home.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 11:33 am to AGGIES
The army-size scale of the current Russian offensive at Avdiivka (which now has 109 confirmed vehicle losses) tells us that Russia is nowhere close to even thinking about peace. They are still absolutely committed to conquering the rest of the Donbas.
Biden has dribbled out aid to Ukraine so slowly that the war will likely not end in 2024.
But I still think that it's wrong to call the war a stalemate. Russia is threatening to take Avdiivka, a major Ukrainian stronghold that's been fought over since 2014. Ukraine is currently making its biggest-ever raid (if raid is the right word) across the Dnipro in South Kherson. Ukraine has reopened the port of Odessa to grain shipments. ATACMS and the coming F-16s give Ukraine increasing ability to strike from distance. There's nothing static about the confict.
Biden has dribbled out aid to Ukraine so slowly that the war will likely not end in 2024.
But I still think that it's wrong to call the war a stalemate. Russia is threatening to take Avdiivka, a major Ukrainian stronghold that's been fought over since 2014. Ukraine is currently making its biggest-ever raid (if raid is the right word) across the Dnipro in South Kherson. Ukraine has reopened the port of Odessa to grain shipments. ATACMS and the coming F-16s give Ukraine increasing ability to strike from distance. There's nothing static about the confict.
Posted on 10/24/23 at 12:30 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russian state media is confirming recent Telegram rumors that a Ukrainian man brought a whiskey and a poisoned cake to a Russian aviation school reunion party. There were 77 Russian pilots and officers present whom he tried to poison.
LINK
quote:
Very reservedly the Russians confirm the takedown of their own Mi-8 helicopter which resulted in the deaths of 3 pilots "over the sea". A brief note without mentioning the names appeared on Kirill Fyodorov's channel where the fundraiser was also launched. It is still unclear where and when this happened.
LINK
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