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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/22/23 at 9:08 pm to LSUPilot07
Posted on 10/22/23 at 9:08 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
UH-1Y Venom is a modernized Huey that is a utility/transport aircraft
No wop-wop no care.
0
Posted on 10/22/23 at 9:19 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
he UH-1Y Venom is a modernized Huey
I think you can add “vastly upgraded” to your discription of the Venom as well. There is a world of differences between the old BH UH-1B/H and the Venom.
This post was edited on 10/23/23 at 6:58 am
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:24 am to Traveler
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 23 October 2023
Russian government spending is becoming increasingly focused on the costs of its war on Ukraine. The state's proposed 2024 budget envisages an approximate 68% increase in planned defence spending compared to that allotted for 2023 - this puts defence spending for 2024 at around 6% of GDP. In contrast, education and healthcare spending will be frozen at the 2023 allocation, which amounts to a real term spending cut due to inflation.
More spending will need to be allocated to fund payments and healthcare costs for the mounting numbers of wounded soldiers and the families of those killed in the conflict. More than half of those soldiers wounded severely enough to require longer term medical care have lost limbs, with one in five requiring upper limb amputations, Deputy Labour Minister Alexei Vovchenko stated on 17 October 2023. These injured soldiers will almost certainly require lifelong healthcare.
Consistently heightened military spending will highly likely contribute to inflationary pressures within Russia. Furthermore, continued increases in military spending would force the Russian government to make difficult decisions about how to fund the war, likely increasing financial pressures on Russian businesses. However, any substantial future reduction in military expenditure would likely remove an increasingly central driver of Russian economic activity in the face of sanctions.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 23 October 2023
Russian government spending is becoming increasingly focused on the costs of its war on Ukraine. The state's proposed 2024 budget envisages an approximate 68% increase in planned defence spending compared to that allotted for 2023 - this puts defence spending for 2024 at around 6% of GDP. In contrast, education and healthcare spending will be frozen at the 2023 allocation, which amounts to a real term spending cut due to inflation.
More spending will need to be allocated to fund payments and healthcare costs for the mounting numbers of wounded soldiers and the families of those killed in the conflict. More than half of those soldiers wounded severely enough to require longer term medical care have lost limbs, with one in five requiring upper limb amputations, Deputy Labour Minister Alexei Vovchenko stated on 17 October 2023. These injured soldiers will almost certainly require lifelong healthcare.
Consistently heightened military spending will highly likely contribute to inflationary pressures within Russia. Furthermore, continued increases in military spending would force the Russian government to make difficult decisions about how to fund the war, likely increasing financial pressures on Russian businesses. However, any substantial future reduction in military expenditure would likely remove an increasingly central driver of Russian economic activity in the face of sanctions.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:43 am to cypher
quote:
defence spending for 2024 at around 6% of GDP
I didn't know how to interpret this, so I looked as the US for a reference point
quote:
Although the United States spends more on defense than any other country, the Congressional Budget Office projects that defense spending as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) will decline over the next 10 years — from 3.1 percent of GDP in 2023 to 2.8 percent in 2033. That is considerably lower than the 50-year average spending on defense of 4.3 percent of GDP.
LINK
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:57 am to StormyMcMan
AFU may have established a foothold at Pidstepne on the east bank of the Dnipro. That would mean more than a raiding party on the east bank and widening of the foothold into a beachhead.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 7:37 am to CitizenK
quote:
A new "pro-Putin party" is being created in Germany: Bundestag MP from the Left Party has announced the creation of a party in favor of lifting anti-Russian sanctions - Bild
Sahra Wagenknecht, who has long opposed arms supplies to Ukraine and favored appeasement of Russia, announced today that she is leaving the Left Party and forming her own "Sahra Wagenknecht Union - For Reason and Justice." Nine other MPs from the Left also announced that they would join a new party.
The publication's columnists say the new political force is gaining popularity, and polls show it could win a significant number of votes in the Bundestag elections.
"The Kremlin is still riding two rails in Germany: on the right with the AfG (Alternative for Germany - a far-right political party) and Wagenknecht will take care of the rest," the journalist writes.
LINK
Posted on 10/23/23 at 8:35 am to CitizenK
quote:
AFU may have established a foothold at Pidstepne on the east bank of the Dnipro. That would mean more than a raiding party on the east bank and widening of the foothold into a beachhead.
"Birds of Magyar" is Ukraine's most celebrated drone unit. Magyar's videos of destroying Russian vehicles have made him a bit of a celebrity.
When I heard two days ago that they had been transferred from Zaporizhzhia to the Kherson area, I concluded that Ukraine is trying to make this crossing into more than a raid.
They still haven't "crossed the Rubicon," but I agree that Ukraine is trying to eventually turn this into a large-scale crossing. The Ukrainians don't think that Russia has sufficient forces in the area to defend it.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 12:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
Erdogan continues to play both sides.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 1:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
When I heard two days ago that they had been transferred from Zaporizhzhia to the Kherson area, I concluded that Ukraine is trying to make this crossing into more than a raid.
Why now, as opposed to earlier?
Use attrition to weaken, sure, but then flood people across the river behind the static defenses? Again -- why not do that before muddy season? I'm not sure I understand what they're trying here?
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:54 pm to RuLSU
British tabloid source, so TIFWIW
quote:LINK
Vladimir Putin is alleged to have suffered a "cardiac arrest" in his private Moscow apartment on Sunday evening.
A Telegram Channel believed to be run by a former Kremlin insider reported that incident saying the Russian leader was found by guards on the floor of the bedroom "lying on the floor, rolling his eyes."
Doctors were reportedly called immediately and they later diagnosed the 71-year-old as having suffered a "cardiac arrest."
Putin was then moved to a special medical facility built in the apartment where he underwent intensive care, the source claims.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:48 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Why now, as opposed to earlier?
Use attrition to weaken, sure, but then flood people across the river behind the static defenses? Again -- why not do that before muddy season? I'm not sure I understand what they're trying here?
Not an easy task and perhaps waiting for supplies and reinforcements to go to Adviika are Robotyne areas.
Interesting interview with ret Gen Breedlove regarding this and others. LINK
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:51 pm to Jim Rockford
I'll believe it when I see it. To paraphrase Twain, the reports of Putin's demise have been greatly exaggerated (in the past.)
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:45 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Again -- why not do that before muddy season? I'm not sure I understand what they're trying here?
I'm not sure that there really is a mud season in South Kherson. It's a generally dry area, formerly dependent on the reservoir for irrigation for agriculture. There's actually a big group of sand dunes near there.
Maybe WeeWee or someone else with more local knowledge can confirm.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 7:38 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Russia's domestic production of artillery shells, supplemented by increased ammunition imports from North Korea, will likely allow Russian forces to sustain sufficient rates of artillery fire in Ukraine in 2024, albeit at a relatively lower level than during 2022. Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Head Colonel Ants Kiviselg stated on October 20 that Russia still has around four million artillery shells remaining, which Russian forces can use for "low intensity" warfare for an additional year.[1] Kiviselg noted that there are reports that North Korea has shipped up to 1,000 containers of ammunition to Russia, each containing between 300-500 pieces of artillery ammunition.[2] Kiviselg estimated that North Korea may have therefore provided between 300,000-500,000 pieces of ammunition to Russia, which can last up to one month at the current daily rate of consumption of around 10,000 shells a day.[3] Ukrainian military analyst Colonel Petro Chernyk reported on October 23 that Russian forces are currently firing between 10,000-15,000 shells a day, significantly lower than rates of fire in summer 2022 of 45,000-80,000 shells per day
Russian forces conducted another series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 22 to 23. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 13 Shahed-131/136 drones, one unspecified drone, and one Kh-59 cruise missile and that Ukrainian forces destroyed all targets.[6] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces conducted nine airstrikes using an unspecified number of Kh-31 anti-radar air-to-surface missiles.[7] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command also reported that Ukrainian forces shot down nine Shahed drones that Russian forces aimed at port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast
Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut on October 23 amid continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage published on October 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced across the railway line north of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), confirming prior statements by the Ukrainian General Staff and Russian milbloggers.[11] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[12]
The Russian government appears to be emphasizing defense spending over social programs in the 2024 federal budget despite contrary messaging intended to reassure the Russian populace. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on October 23 that the Russian government’s proposed 2024 budget includes a 68 percent increase in planned defense spending compared to 2023, increasing defense spending to six percent of Russian GDP
Ukrainian Air Force Command Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on October 22 that the first group of Ukrainian pilots will begin training with instructors on F-16 fighter jets “in the near future.”[16] The pilots are currently training on F-16 simulators. Politico reported on October 13 that an unnamed US official stated that the pilots’ training may be accelerated due to Ukrainian forces’ urgent need for fighter jets
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russia's domestic production of artillery shells, supplemented by increased ammunition imports from North Korea, will likely allow Russian forces to sustain sufficient rates of artillery fire in Ukraine in 2024, albeit at a relatively lower level than during 2022.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka and made confirmed advances northeast of Avdiivka.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces back from some newly captured positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast but noted that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence on the east bank.
Russian forces conducted another series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 22 to 23.
Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut on October 23 amid continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian government appears to be emphasizing defense spending over social programs in the 2024 federal budget despite contrary messaging intended to reassure the Russian populace.
Ukrainian Air Force Command Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on October 22 that the first group of Ukrainian pilots will begin training with instructors on F-16 fighter jets “in the near future.”
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk, along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, south of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed gains in some areas.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko and the Federation Committee on Defense and Security on October 23.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 8:16 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I'm not sure that there really is a mud season in South Kherson. It's a generally dry area, formerly dependent on the reservoir for irrigation for agriculture. There's actually a big group of sand dunes near there.
Soil matters. I cannot make any mud 1 mile due east of Tiger Stadium. Topsoil is 1/4 to 1/2 inch. A posthole with water sitting in it for two days, doesn't seep into the soil and the soil is still hard as before.
Micro climate a real thing. When a front moves through from west of the Mississippi it all but parts and then joins back 2 miles east of Tiger Stadium. Inside of that 2 miles from the river may not be bone dry but rarely heavy weather. So there is some actual truth about "it never rains in Death Valley on Saturday Night"
Posted on 10/23/23 at 8:31 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka and made confirmed advances northeast of Avdiivka.
Russia may be taking huge losses at Avdiivka, but they are still gaining ground.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 9:00 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Soil matters. I cannot make any mud 1 mile due east of Tiger Stadium. Topsoil is 1/4 to 1/2 inch. A posthole with water sitting in it for two days, doesn't seep into the soil and the soil is still hard as before.
So, you play commando a mile away from Tiger Stadium?
Posted on 10/24/23 at 12:02 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Vladimir Putin is alleged to have suffered a "cardiac arrest" in his private Moscow apartment on Sunday evening.
Was he vaxxed?
This post was edited on 10/24/23 at 12:03 am
Posted on 10/24/23 at 4:58 am to Hateradedrink
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 October 2023
Russia largely continues to rely on specially designated 'Shtorm-Z' units for local offensive operations in Ukraine. These company-sized groups were likely first fielded in 2022. There is a realistic possibility that Russia originally envisioned them as relatively elite organisations which could seize the tactical initiative.
However, since at least spring 2023, Shtorm-Z have effectively become penal battalions, manned with convicts and regular troops on disciplinary charges. Multiple accounts suggest the units are given the lowest priority for logistical and medical support, while repeatedly being ordered to attack.
Russian troops have often conducted an effective defence. However, the existence of Shtorm-Z highlights the extreme difficulty Russia has in generating combat infantry capable of conducting effective offensive operations.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 October 2023
Russia largely continues to rely on specially designated 'Shtorm-Z' units for local offensive operations in Ukraine. These company-sized groups were likely first fielded in 2022. There is a realistic possibility that Russia originally envisioned them as relatively elite organisations which could seize the tactical initiative.
However, since at least spring 2023, Shtorm-Z have effectively become penal battalions, manned with convicts and regular troops on disciplinary charges. Multiple accounts suggest the units are given the lowest priority for logistical and medical support, while repeatedly being ordered to attack.
Russian troops have often conducted an effective defence. However, the existence of Shtorm-Z highlights the extreme difficulty Russia has in generating combat infantry capable of conducting effective offensive operations.
This post was edited on 10/24/23 at 6:51 am
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