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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/25/23 at 10:57 am to Blitzed
Posted on 6/25/23 at 10:57 am to Blitzed
quote:
Did the thread get ghost of Kiev’s again with this Wagner thing?
How is it possible for some of you to be so fricking stupid?
Do you think Putin went on Russian TV to call Wagner a bunch of traitors for funsies?
This post was edited on 6/25/23 at 10:58 am
1
Posted on 6/25/23 at 11:24 am to Dr RC
quote:
How is it possible for some of you to be so fricking stupid?
The PT big brains have convinced themselves that biden paid prigo the 6.2 billion accounting error and then split it with putin for a fake coup.
Never mind that a bunch of russian airmen got killed in the process lol
Posted on 6/25/23 at 11:35 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
The PT big brains have convinced themselves that biden paid prigo the 6.2 billion accounting error and then split it with putin for a fake coup.
And never mind that the accounting error was in assigning a dollar amount to weapons and ammo in stock. It wasn’t cash.
When Congress approved aid to Ukraine they set a limit in dollars. When we give the Ukes five Bradley’s, or 100 tons of shells, the bean counters have to assign a dollar amount to the donations.
In the case of the 6 billion they just reviewed their assignments and revised it down allowing for more donations. Sure the accountants could have their thumbs on the scale, but my point is it’s not cash.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 12:07 pm to doubleb
Good analysis IMO
LINK
quote:
Below is a brief description of Prigozhin's mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here's the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
1?? Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.
2?? Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin's merits in taking Bakhmut (that's why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin's serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).
3?? Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin's reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn't prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained - to "take the Kremlin" - an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.
4?? Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don't believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.
5?? I don't think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov - something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin's address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin's primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.
I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.
And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that.
I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.
LINK
Posted on 6/25/23 at 12:12 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
The PT big brains have convinced themselves that biden paid prigo the 6.2 billion accounting error and then split it with putin for a fake coup.
Then none of those folks could operate a cash register at a MacDonalds with pictures
Posted on 6/25/23 at 12:14 pm to CitizenK
Learn how to spell the restaurant you’ve provided, oh great braniac.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 12:32 pm to Blitzed
quote:
Did the thread get ghost of Kiev’s again with this Wagner thing?
I love how this ghost of kiev keeps coming up as a troll. This thread was suspect as hell and fully admitted it was propaganda. Can you provide any quotes of people getting ghost of kiev'd?
This war has really pointed out the worst part of anonymous social media world.
Side A is like, we have no business over there across the globe spending all this money to create bloodshed, we need to look for a way out of this. We have been influencing things that led to this war for years.
Side B is like, One country invaded another one; we support the country with its sovereignty being violated and don't want to create a slippery slope for the perpetrator to continue to more countries. We need to support Ukraine however we can. At this point, the means to this war don't really change the current situation.
(seems like rational statements, these 2 sides should engage and then refine their positions and find the truths and falsehoods and come to a middle ground. Then the two sides start interacting, and moronic, immature, social media attitude takes over)
The A side responds, You guys are supporting NAZI's! All of you just want WW3; and the nukes to fly! I'm going to point out every negative thing I can find about Ukrainian society and put it in your face you Nazi scum. You guys are sick to be so happy at all the Russians dying daily. Slava Ukraine right?!(buys into all narrative-supporting propaganda but anything that doesn't support narrative, is just propaganda, you idiot.)
The B side responds, Ok comrades, you guys might as well move to mother Russia, all you want is the soviet union to take over the entire European continent. I'm going to point out every negative thing about Russian society and put it in your face comrades. You guys are sick to be so happy at all the Ukrainians dying daily. (buys into all narrative-supporting propaganda but anything that doesn't support narrative, is propaganda you idiot.)
This world is so fricked. Every single issue in life just runs to extreme polarities and no one wants to admit any fault in their thought-gang's absolute views on every aspect of everything; the discussion spirals until it's void of almost all intellectual communication between opposing thoughts.
This post was edited on 6/25/23 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 6/25/23 at 12:34 pm to StormyMcMan
This is the first thing that made sense.
Prigozhin was the proverbial dog who caught the car.
Prigozhin was the proverbial dog who caught the car.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:06 pm to Hateradedrink
Wagner's Grey Zone blog:
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:21 pm to doubleb
quote:
And never mind that the accounting error was in assigning a dollar amount to weapons and ammo in stock. It wasn’t cash.
I'm sure the Javelins and HIMARS are worth their current price, but how about 40 year old TOW-2's and related weapon systems that are approaching their sunset days.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:30 pm to Auburn1968
Proof that nary a one of them has ever signed the front of a paycheck
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
The probability of a Wagner attack south into Ukraine from Belarus is about 0%
They would be wiped out before they got to the outskirts of Kyiv, just like the last time Russia tried it.
More than likely they are there to be an insurance policy against any attempts to stage a coup in Belarus.
They would be wiped out before they got to the outskirts of Kyiv, just like the last time Russia tried it.
More than likely they are there to be an insurance policy against any attempts to stage a coup in Belarus.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:37 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that. I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.
I’d be interested to know the basis for this given the last 16 months. Aside from that, I can get behind the rest of that.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:39 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
but how about 40 year old TOW-2's and related weapon systems that are approaching their sunset days.
What about them? We just ship them to Europe and let them "dispose" of them on a bunch of Russian Armor instead of paying to destroy them ourselves.
Who cares?
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:48 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
What about them? We just ship them to Europe and let them "dispose" of them on a bunch of Russian Armor instead of paying to destroy them ourselves.
Who cares?
I think he's talking in the context of the "accounting error"
IIRC the supposed error is that the washington bean counters were counting old, outdated equipment at an way inflated value (maybe even using their "new" dollar price?)
Whether you think washington is telling us the truth (lol) is another thing, but its certainly plausible the dweebs in washington fricked up the count and assigned a "like new" value to shite that is way out of date and that we would never use ourselves.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:48 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
quote:
And no, Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He's now certainly convinced of that. I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.
I’d be interested to know the basis for this given the last 16 months. Aside from that, I can get behind the rest of that.
Yeah, that part seems a little dubious. But if it's true, then it confirms that Bakhmut truly was the meat grinder it was reported to be for Wagner. The only way that Putin and Prigozhin could both come to the conclusion that they were done as an effective fighting force would be to embrace the reality that Putin pushed them over the brink and for Prig to be able to say "Hey, Wagner destroyed itself taking that city for you". They both knew Bakhmut put Wagner on it's death bed and the forcing of Wagner mercs to sign MoD contracts by July was the death blow.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:51 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Whether you think washington is telling us the truth (lol) is another thing, but its certainly plausible the dweebs in washington fricked up the count and assigned a "like new" value to shite that is way out of date and that we would never use ourselves.
As opposed to the over-inflated price we would have paid to some former government cronies in the "private sector" now destroy or store them for decades ourselves? It's probably close to a wash in my eyes.
This post was edited on 6/25/23 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 6/25/23 at 3:07 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
The probability of a Wagner attack south into Ukraine from Belarus is about 0%
They would be wiped out before they got to the outskirts of Kyiv, just like the last time Russia tried it.
More than likely they are there to be an insurance policy against any attempts to stage a coup in Belarus.
Much faster than last time, actually. Wagner has a smaller force than Russia pushed towards Kyiv last time. And Russia caught Ukraine by surprise back then -- Ukraine didn't have any substantial force at the borders. The border crossings are now heavily fortified, and most of the border is a huge swamp that cannot be crossed by military vehicles; it was swampy before the war, but beavers then built huge dams that would ordinarily have been removed before the war.
It's completely impossible now. And, while Lukashenko agreed to allow Putin's original invasion from his territory, he is now very loath for more conflict around his territory, as his own position is tenuous, and Ukraine is much, much more powerful now than it was at the beginning of the war. Belarus would now lose decisively and quickly in any war against Ukraine.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 3:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
In fact, it's more likely that Wagner would take out Lukashenko than invade Ukraine.
To any extent that Prigozhin is loyal to Putin, he represents a control mechanism over Belarus.
To any extent that Prigozhin is loyal to Putin, he represents a control mechanism over Belarus.
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