Pendulum

I've been conditioned by this board to stop reading any type of social media post if it starts with one word followed by an exclamation point.

There's a reason they're keeping it dark as fk

Kind of a chicken shite thread title without offering up any names.

The price movement before March was damn near 100% tariffs. When he announced on a Friday at the ribbon ceremony for that Nippon steel deal, he was increasing section 232 on steel and Alu by 25%; the domestic aluminum futures market had absorbed 24 of the 25% increase by market open on Monday. All this talk of demand is on the margins at best.

LETS LOOK AT THE FACTS SHALL WE:

For reference,
Midwest was 1.40/lb in Jan 2025, it was 2.20 in Dec 2025 (+57%)
LME was 1.17/lb in Jan 2025, it was 1.30 in Dec 2025 (+11%)


Once we started bombing Iran, and Bahrain started taking strays, the LME (what the rest of the world uses as price index) started moving as well. So now the USA is getting it from both ends.

MWT for April was 2.75/lb (+25% from Dec), LME was 1.63 (+25% from Dec)

The tariffs are raping this country's overall aluminum industry; and there's been no meaningful real life movement on the primary production side; just talk; and all that talk took place before oil was over $100/barrel; Emirates might want to redo their FID on that OK Smelter that will never exist. MWT at 2.75 is recessionary for this industry.


The talk now in alu industry, is a matter of when Trump will buckle, not if. He will first remove tariffs on aluminum billet from Canada (where 75% of US used primary comes from) and Mexico, that will kill all hopes of any new smelters in US. So we will do a roundtrip to basically where we started, not help anything, and will have lost alot of potential growth in the meantime, and be stuck with higher prices than where we started. For what? So some cultists could parrot that we were hooked on "cheap" chinese aluminum for a moment in time?

You have no clue what youre talking about. Every section 232 tarriff increase was absorbed by Midwest pricing within a week. Our aluminum smelting capacity has actually been decreasing still while all the downstream aluminum industry in this country contracts which provides multiples more jobs than smelting.

Sure theres some smelter projects on paper that will go live some point in next decade with Saudi money....riiiight, it might as well be a joke when you discuss that project with people in the know.

The only people making gains fron these tariffs are the smelters (Alcoa, century, etc) and they arent increasing capacity, they are just making profit. They arent going to commit billions tk a project that doesnt go live until we are 1 or 2 presidents down the road who may have drastically different ideas.

One day we might get our smelting capacity up, hopefully theres still an aluminum manufacturing industry to service. American downstream companies cant be competitive on a international stage now, we are hamstrung. Its not about "cheap" aluminum, its about not paying multiples more than anyone else in the world, it makes no sense and as someone in the industry, I have not seen a single positive real thing come to fruition due to this effort, only pain

Because it would cost more? Its not like the Saudis are funding lga golf

quote:

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I tried to warn people i was made into a board villain and subject to memes and all that shite.

On a smaller scale, had a similar thing with fastly - but my longest drag out was definitely LVVV

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Your track record on calling out BS on this board over the years is kinda... legendary :cheers:

Yep, the bulls are one of the best run organizations of the last 10 years.



Wait....

So what did the whistle blower say that wasnt already clearly obvious. I feel like "whistle blower" is not really applicable here.

Best read Ive had on the OT in quite some time i must say.