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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/24/23 at 9:51 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 6/24/23 at 9:51 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The variable I can’t pin down is how the frick does Prig think this is gonna work out for him long-term
I’m honestly baffled why he agreed to this deal. It’s breathtakingly stupid on his part. He took at shot at the king but he forgot the number one rule to follow if you take a shot at the king, namely if you take a shot at the king, you cannot miss. Well, he definitely missed. Now, he’s not long for this world.
I just don’t understand what he’s thinking.
1
Posted on 6/24/23 at 9:51 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
The variable I can’t pin down is how the frick does Prig think this is gonna work out for him long-term
Maybe he really was doing it all for the honor of his men. Maybe he didn't want those tens of thousands to have died in vain due to MoD duplicity and incompetence. Maybe it was as simple as that. Guy's a thug, but even thugs usually have things they care about.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 10:01 pm to Jim Rockford
Don’t overthink this, ol boy got paid big $$$$
Posted on 6/24/23 at 10:05 pm to Jim Rockford
Mercenaries only care about money. This has been proven throughout history. Prig is no different.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 10:22 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Maybe he really was doing it all for the honor of his men. Maybe he didn't want those tens of thousands to have died in vain due to MoD duplicity and incompetence.
So now he takes the bag to Belarus and abandons them to be swallowed up by MoD?
Makes no sense either. Just like anything that transpired the last 48 hours.
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 10:23 pm
Posted on 6/24/23 at 10:42 pm to jefffan
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD); and no Wagner personnel will be charged for their involvement in an armed rebellion.
The Wagner Group encircled the Russian Southern Military District (SMD)’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and drove to within 330km of Moscow City prior to the announcement of the deal. Wagner forces will reportedly begin withdrawing to their bases soon, and footage reportedly depicts Prigozhin departing Rostov-on-Don.
The Kremlin struggled to cohere an effective rapid response to Wagner’s advances, highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine.
Putin unsurprisingly elected to back the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and its ongoing efforts to centralize control of Russian irregular forces (including Wagner) over Prigozhin.
The Lukashenko-brokered agreement will very likely eliminate Wagner Group as a Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form, although elements of the organization may endure under existing and new capacities.
Prigozhin likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects.
The optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits.
The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD.
Russian forces launched their largest series of missile strikes against Ukraine in recent months on June 24, despite the armed rebellion within Russia.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and reportedly made advances on June 24, and regular fighting continued on other sectors of the line.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 10:49 pm to jefffan
quote:
80 Russians killed and wounded.
Unimpossible both BKR and Stidham have assured us that Noone but Ukrainians die in the fighting
Posted on 6/24/23 at 10:51 pm to Lakeboy7
So you’re saying Putin sent a large Venmo to Prig?
Posted on 6/24/23 at 11:09 pm to Grinder
quote:
Putin sent a large Venmo to Prig?
Probably a cash transaction, USD of course. Gold maybe?
Posted on 6/24/23 at 11:34 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I’m honestly baffled why he agreed to this deal. It’s breathtakingly stupid on his part. He took at shot at the king but he forgot the number one rule to follow if you take a shot at the king, namely if you take a shot at the king, you cannot miss. Well, he definitely missed. Now, he’s not long for this world.
I just don’t understand what he’s thinking.
Agreed on all fronts.
It’s hard for me to believe his gambit didn’t go well enough from the jump, so he took this deal to save face. So scratch that.
So was this all a money play or some type of exit plan? He already has money. What’s the point of a billion more if you are confined to Belarus and someone literally every Russian leader would rather see dead. What is he going to do play tennis and appear on Belarusian CNN anytime there is a story about catering or coups? I can’t believe this was just a money play.
And self preservation. A year from now, whether it’s Putin or someone else in charge (and especially someone else), kill Prig is at the top of the consolidate power, assert dominance to do list.
does he have family that was about to be tortured? If so, isn’t that the first thing you consider before couping against a dictator?
Posted on 6/25/23 at 1:15 am to ned nederlander
quote:
Michael MacKay
@mhmck
Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut and have entered the city.
There are reports from Russian propaganda channels that some Russian troops are deserting their positions and Ukrainian troops encounter reduced resistance.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 1:47 am to ned nederlander
Youngest kid was born in 2005 according to Google. Who knows how many kids he has with any mistresses.
Probably what made him re-think things if FSB caught up to her after the raid on the St. Pete HQ.
Probably what made him re-think things if FSB caught up to her after the raid on the St. Pete HQ.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:05 am to jefffan
Love him or hate him, it's hard not to wonder at President Putin's extremely close relationship with Christ Almighy.
It appears the Lord has preserved the status quo for now, for better or for worse.
It appears the Lord has preserved the status quo for now, for better or for worse.
This post was edited on 6/25/23 at 2:06 am
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:31 am to SirWinston
quote:
it's hard not to wonder at President Putin's extremely close relationship with Christ Almighy.
He grew up and spent the first 39 years of his life in the Soviet Union, 16 of those in the KGB. I am pretty sure any religious posturing is pure theater.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 2:45 am to Obtuse1
L
Many people doubted the legitimacy of Saul's conversion to Paul in the New Testament. I'm not saying I know for sure that Vladimir has a pure heart... I'm just saying it's not impossible.
quote:
He grew up and spent the first 39 years of his life in the Soviet Union, 16 of those in the KGB. I am pretty sure any religious posturing is pure theate
Many people doubted the legitimacy of Saul's conversion to Paul in the New Testament. I'm not saying I know for sure that Vladimir has a pure heart... I'm just saying it's not impossible.
This post was edited on 6/25/23 at 2:47 am
Posted on 6/25/23 at 3:44 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Putin doesn't give a shite about the world post-Putin
What? That is pretty much the only reason he has to do what he is doing!
This post was edited on 6/25/23 at 3:45 am
Posted on 6/25/23 at 5:07 am to SirWinston
quote:
Love him or hate him, it's hard not to wonder at President Putin's extremely close relationship with Christ Almighy.
It appears the Lord has preserved the status quo for now, for better or for worse.
So wait, you’re TulaneLSU’s less educated alter?
Posted on 6/25/23 at 5:28 am to MAXtheTIGER
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 June 2023
In recent days, Ukrainian forces have re-set and have again been undertaking major offensive operations on three main axes in southern and eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces are using the experiences from the first two weeks of the counter-offensive to refine tactics for assaulting the deep, well prepared Russian defences. Ukrainian units are making gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas.
In Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have made their own significant effort to launch an attack in the Serebryanka Forest near Kremina. This probably reflects continued Russian senior leadership orders to go on the offensive whenever possible. Russia has made some small gains, but Ukrainian forces have prevented a breakthrough.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 June 2023
In recent days, Ukrainian forces have re-set and have again been undertaking major offensive operations on three main axes in southern and eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces are using the experiences from the first two weeks of the counter-offensive to refine tactics for assaulting the deep, well prepared Russian defences. Ukrainian units are making gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas.
In Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have made their own significant effort to launch an attack in the Serebryanka Forest near Kremina. This probably reflects continued Russian senior leadership orders to go on the offensive whenever possible. Russia has made some small gains, but Ukrainian forces have prevented a breakthrough.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 6:56 am to SirWinston
quote:
it's hard not to wonder at President Putin's extremely close relationship with Christ Almighy.
Posted on 6/25/23 at 6:58 am to IAmNERD
quote:
So now he takes the bag to Belarus and abandons them to be swallowed up by MoD?
Through some more scrolling of Twitter last night I see only the Wagner troops who did NOT commit to the March to Moscow would be enveloped into the MOD. Those who marched with/for him will also be in Belarus with him. Don’t know until we know though.
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