re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

yurintroubl:

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A condition I will now refer to as "whiskey barrel".

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I like it, but then I am partial to a good whiskey. I came up with "spud spasms" or "vodka vacillations" that are solved with a "sobriety shimming" for correction purposes of both targeting and the crew.

DMAN1968:

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No one is putting out 80k shells per day. The war would have been over by day 3 at that rate.

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Oh I am well aware that this would be unachievable in this conflict. The most prolific shell use during the war reportedly saw an average of 25-30k per day from the Russians and Ukranians combined and that was over the entire operational theatre. For one small section like Bahkmut, such a scale would mean roughly 1900 rounds targeted over each square kilometre, overkill, to say the least.

I was curious if anyone had some idea or information the effects such usage would cause on equipment maintenance and supply if it was achievable though.

As a side rabbit hole I went to look at artillery usage for WWI and WWII, numbers were fairly broad but these stood out at just how prolific shell consumption was during these periods.

During WWI Germany alone reportedly fired 220,000,000 shells of various descriptions which equates to about 138,000 a day for over 4 years.

During WWII the United States reportedly manufactured 11,000,000 tonnes of shelled munitions that was used by themselves and their allies. I couldn't find unit numbers but as a hypothetical if you break that down purely as 155mm shells, it works out at around 100,000 a day for 6 years and doesn't take into account the vast array of smaller shell calibres that were used.

Edit: Clarity

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Today he warns that Ukraine’s counter-offensive will begin with mass missile strikes on targets deep inside Russia

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Wallace said Britain was supplying the Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine so they could be used within its territory, implying he had received assurances from Ukraine that they would not be used to target inside Russia.

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It's going to get confusing with all the who-did-what finger pointing that's going to happen.

The loud beeping you hear is the Russian army in reverse

I'd like to see what the Ukrainians could do with a few A10 Warthogs

Comment on the Russian "regrouping" from the man that Davydov now refers to as "the popular Russian milblogger Yevgeny Prigozhin":

LINK

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"What Igor Konashenkov said is called flight. Not regrouping," Prigozhin said when requested to comment on the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that their forces took advantageous defensive positions near Berkhivka reservoir.

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I will be very interested to see what happens in Bakhmut in the next few days. Will Russia push its few reserves there to stop the Ukrainian push?

So far, Ukraine is making these advances with the troops that were already fighting in the Bakhmut area. Will they push one of the new mechanized brigades into the fight?

Unless Russia does something quickly, I think that Ukraine is on the cusp of a major advance in the area, one that could see Russia completely losing Bakhmut.

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I'd like to see what the Ukrainians could do with a few A10 Warthogs

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Not much. Russia would shoot them down.
The Russians have actual air defense systems.

I suspect if Bradley’s and Challengers were involved, Russia would be crowing about their destruction.

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Why couldn't this have been done with one of the fresh units as part of the beginning of the counter offensive?

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These days, both sides constantly release videos. The OSINT community almost always knows which units are where on the front lines, on both sides.

And here's a very interesting CNN interview last night with a Ukrainian unit commander in Bakhmut: LINK

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Why couldn't this have been done with one of the fresh units as part of the beginning of the counter offensive?

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Maybe because they're not getting the shite shelled out of them now?

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here's a very interesting CNN interview last night with a Ukrainian unit commander in Bakhmut: LINK

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Thinking some more about that interview, the really noteworthy thing about it was at the end when he mentioned the HIMARS strike on the Russian troops who had clustered at the rear.

This is really a new thing for Ukraine. In the past, HIMARS was only used on targets of strategic value. Ukraine simply didn't have enough to use them to make tactical strikes.

But with the arrival of Storm Shadow, and with the start of the offensive, Ukraine is willing to use a HIMARS strike to take out a cluster of Russian troops/vehicles.