re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It wouldn't be the first time that lots of ammo and soldiers were in the same building.

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When Ukraine used the Patriot for the first time last week to intercept a Russian hypersonic missile, Russia was targeting the Patriot battery itself, two US officials tell @NatashaBertrand @OrenCNN.

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US officials believe the Russians picked up on signals that are emitted from the Patriot, allowing it to be targeted. Ukrainians fired multiple missiles from the Patriot at different angles to intercept the Russian Kinzhal missile.

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Noelreports:

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Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Viktor Vodolatsky came under fire in Russian controlled Luhansk.

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Twitter link with a short clip

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Is Prigozhin doing multiple videos a day now?

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In his latest verbal attack, Prigozhin tells the Russian Defence Ministry to "stop lying immediately" and says its actions will lead to a "global tragedy for Russia"

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I am giving more and more credence to Wagner being left out to dry in the summer sun. The next few days could be one of the lynch pin moments of the war so far.

With Prigozhin's increasingly aggressive rants over the last month and now the reported, though for now small, "redeployment"/withdrawal of the RuAF on his flanks there are signs of a total breakdown of the relationship between Wagner and the Russian MoD.

I view the recent saga over ammunition and then the significant assault to push Ukraine out of Bahkmut by the 9th was both parts theatre to gain an element of surprise and the reality that Wagner has not achieved the optics the Russia wanted despite months of work.

The ramifications for Russian morale and the internal political pressures this could unleash are not insignificant which could result in a massive rout of Russian forces in the area if Ukraine continues its gains as part of a feint or genuine counter offensive opening up a potential for easy gains given how fluid Bahkmut has been, so static defences are minimal. After the long grinding winter this would go a long way for Ukrainian morale, and boost Western opinion as well.



It also puts the northern Russian supply routes in danger, combined with the ability to hit the southern routes after being given longer ranged munitions means Russia would be in a world of hurt. If Ukraine has been foresighted enough to recognise and exploit this situation it would explain why they fought so hard to hold it far longer than many of us thought they should.

It is of course early and these just could be minor adjustments or even some elaborate psyop by Russia but that would rely on them having large amounts of troops ready to counter it if Ukraine takes the bait which does not appear to be the case.

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Regardless of what was in the building the message sent is clear. Areas deemed safe are no longer safe.

Remover the mass traffic in Kerch after the strikes in the airfield in Crimea last year. Already hearing reports of civilian cars in line headed out of occupied areas.

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I would be a little leery of such reports depending on their source. Following the fuel depot attack in Sevastopol recently there was media claiming to show long traffic lines out of Crimea again doing the rounds on twitter.

However it was shown to be a repurposed video doctored from earlier footage taken last year after the Kerch bridge attack.

Edit: Clarity

https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1657009509334646785

Prigozhin...

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"The flanks are crumbling. The front is failing. Everything is going on in a global tragedy for russia," — the terrorist Prigozhin went on air with a detailed report.
What he says:
“??There was a retreat of the units of the Ministry of Defense of the russian Federation from the flanks.
??Today alone we lost an area of 5 sq. km.
??The enemy has completely liberated the Chasiv Yar - Bakhmut road (what was called Bakhmut's encirclement).
??The enemy occupied tactical heights from which Bakhmut is in full view.
??When the Armed Forces of Ukraine enter Berkhivka, the gradual encirclement of Bakhmut will begin.”

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Something that is very noticeable in all the videos coming out of Ukraine, is how well-equipped the Ukrainian troops are vs the Russians. Some of the Russians have proper battle gear, but the vast majority of them look like homeless bums. The Ukrainian troops are equipped like NATO troops.

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This could of course be manipulation of optics but I agree the dichotomy is noticeable. Nothing worse after a long cold winter with shitty supply to see kitted out foes bearing down on you to make you feel secure.

Further on Bahkmut I am seeing claims that the UAF has recovered up to 17.3km2 around the city. Bear in mind this is not particularly well established yet but is in line with recent claims over the last few days.

Twitter - @NOELreports

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During three days of counteroffensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Bakhmut direction, 17.3 km² were liberated, the speaker of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhiy Cherevaty reported.

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Twitter - @Defmon3

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Latest "Wagner map"

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Also I wonder how long they have been sitting on this one. For those not familiar with the channel, they have had a daily Bahkmut Holds! banner up everyday for months.

Twitter - @WarMonitor3

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Washington Post (free gift article)

How Ukrainian forces denied Russia victory in Bakhmut by Victory Day

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KYIV, Ukraine — They started shelling at sunrise.
In the dawn haze, under the cover of their own artillery, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers advanced toward a Russian position on the outskirts of the embattled city of Bakhmut.

Drone footage had identified an avenue of attack on Russian lines on the outskirts of the besieged city. Intelligence suggested the Russians were so focused on the intense street battles playing out inside they were not expecting an assault in this direction, according to two battalion commanders in Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade who helped plan and execute the operation and spoke by telephone.

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Interesting story. Click the link to read the whole thing.

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Careful out there Vik.

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I wonder what the Russian equivalent of stay frosty is.