re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

??AFU landing vehicles have reportedly accumulated near Berislav, Kherson region.

This is getting interesting.

---

quote:

---

The story of Chornobaivka is one of relentless assault on command and control characterized by a systematic attack on Russian command posts at scale and across all tactical echelons.4 Over the span of eight months, the Ukrainian fires strike complex successfully attacked the headquarters of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army, the 49th Combined Arms Army, the 22nd Army Corps, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment, and their subordinate elements over twenty-two separate times.5

These attacks significantly degraded the Russians’ ability to plan and conduct coordinated operations on the western side of the Dnieper River. The loss of effective command and control sapped Russian momentum and prevented consolidation of gains, which ultimately led to their expulsion.

In the process, Ukraine struck down high-level Russian leadership, killing Lt. Gen. Yakov Resantsev, commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army, and nearly killing Lt. Gen. Andrey Mordichev, commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army.6 Beyond Kherson, this pattern has been similar if less concentrated. Ukrainian attacks on command posts across the country have led to stunning attrition among senior Russian military leaders.7

---

quote:

---

A satellite image shows the electronic emissions signature of a brigade combat team (BCT) training at the National Training Center (NTC), Fort Irwin, California.

---

quote:

---

Near Majorsk, the enemy also went on the attack. There are active clashes since the morning. There are reports from @wargonzo sources on the front line about local successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and on this sector of the front. At the moment, our units are making attempts to push the neo-Nazis back - they have not yet succeeded in gaining a foothold, the progress was relatively insignificant. However, alarm bells are here too - in the Gorlovsky direction. So Zhenya is right - we can assume that the counteroffensive has begun

---

quote:

---

There is currently No Evidence that a Major Ukrainian Offensive has begun or is about to begin other than the “Freakout” of several Russian Telegram Channels.

---

quote:

---

Prigozhin and several Russian war reporters have announced the beginning of massive Ukrainian offensives in different parts of the front, mostly around Bakhmut. There is currently basically zero reliable information about what's actually happening. We'll see in the coming days.

(Rule of thumb - wait at least 12 hours to confirm if there's any "major news" without accompanying video footage)

RU MOD: "Statements circulated by individual Telegram channels about enemy 'breakthroughs' in various sections of the line of contact are untrue"

---

quote:

---

A # of Russian telegram channels believe Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun with successful advances NW and SW of Bakhmut and Soledar. They warn of fighting/movements near Maiorsk, Kupyansk, and Hulyaipole.
LINK
LINK
LINK

Plenty of criticism from Wagner-linked accounts of the retreats by Russian MoD units. Of course, poor MoD-Wagner coordination is one reason why a counterattack in the Bakhmut area makes sense. 2/

Girkin earlier predicted that Ukraine's main effort would be in Zaporizhzhia with secondary efforts in Kherson and maybe Donetsk. He says MoD units sent to defend Bakhmut's flanks were only equipped to man rear area checkpoints.3/

---