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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/23/23 at 11:22 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 1/23/23 at 11:22 pm to CitizenK
According to Ukraine they shot down 2 Su-25s and 1 Ka-52 helicopter today. This war has taken out almost half of Russia’s entire fleet of Ka-52s and dozens of Su-25s. One year of fighting has done a humongous blow to Russia’s ground attack capabilities and Ukraine’s ever increasing air defense network is going to make things even tougher on them.
1
Posted on 1/24/23 at 3:27 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
Question. Does leveling an entire town and making it completely uninhabitable what you call liberate?
Russia is completely devoid of rational goals now. They’ve force conscripted or killed the people they claim to be liberating, and have reduced their towns and cities to rubble. At this point the goal appears to be genocide and destruction, only.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 6:35 am to StormyMcMan
Jan 23 ISW Update
quote:
Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months. Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skibitsky stated on January 20 that the spring and early summer of 2023 will be decisive in the war and confirmed that the GUR has observed indicators that Russian troops are regrouping in preparation for a “big offensive” in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.[1] Skibitsky also reiterated that Russian forces are unlikely to launch an attack from Belarus or in southern Ukraine
quote:
The Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having increasing ramifications on Wagner’s combat capability. Head of the independent Russian human rights organization “Rus Sidyashchaya” (Russia Behind Bars) Olga Romanova claimed on January 23 that out of the assessed 50,000 prisoners that Wagner has recruited, only 10,000 are fighting on frontlines in Ukraine due to high casualty, surrender, and desertion rates.[5] ISW cannot independently confirm these figures, but they are very plausible considering Wagner’s model of using convicts as cannon fodder in highly attritional offensive operations
quote:
Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion. NOTE: A version of this item appeared in the Critical Threats Project (CTP)’s Iran Crisis Update.[8] Russian Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin met with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on January 23 to expand bilateral cooperation efforts.[9] Ghalibaf noted that Moscow and Tehran should strive to strengthen ties in the banking, energy, and commodity-trading sectors in the face of American sanctions, which Volodin credited for bringing the two countries closer together.[10] Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sources additionally speculated on further military cooperation efforts between Tehran and Moscow. IRGC-affiliated outlet Tasnim News published an editorial arguing that a Russo-Iranian joint production deal could allow Iran to receive Russian Mi-28 and Ka-52 attack helicopters.[11] Both Tehran and Moscow are likely looking to these agreements to mitigate the pressure of sanctions levied against them by the US.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months.
The Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having increasing ramifications on Wagner’s combat capability.
Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion.
Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Ukrainian forces struck Russian concentration areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
Russian forces likely conducted a failed offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast in the last 72 hours.
Russian forces have not made any confirmed territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast despite one Russian occupation official’s continued claims.
The occupation official may be pushing a narrative of Russian tactical successes in Zaporizhia Oblast to generate positive narratives to distract Russians from the lack of promised progress in Bakhmut.
The Kremlin’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces are continuing to generate criticism among supporters of new Russian parallel military structures.
Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied territories into Russian social, administrative, and political systems and crack down on partisan dissent in occupied areas.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 6:55 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky has likely been dismissed as one of Russia's key operational commanders in Ukraine. Teplinsky was the officer on the ground in charge of Russia's relatively successful withdrawal from west of the Dnipro in November 2022, and he has received praise in Russia as a capable and pragmatic commander.
It remains unclear whether Teplinsky still retains his additional remit as head of the VDV, Russia's airborne forces. There is a realistic possibility that debate over the tasks VDV has been given has contributed to his dismissal: VDV has often been employed in ground holding roles traditionally given to the mechanised infantry.
Teplinsky's dismissal is likely another symptom of continued divisions within the senior hierarchy of Russia's operation as General Valery Gerasimov attempts to impose his personal authority on the campaign
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 January 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky has likely been dismissed as one of Russia's key operational commanders in Ukraine. Teplinsky was the officer on the ground in charge of Russia's relatively successful withdrawal from west of the Dnipro in November 2022, and he has received praise in Russia as a capable and pragmatic commander.
It remains unclear whether Teplinsky still retains his additional remit as head of the VDV, Russia's airborne forces. There is a realistic possibility that debate over the tasks VDV has been given has contributed to his dismissal: VDV has often been employed in ground holding roles traditionally given to the mechanised infantry.
Teplinsky's dismissal is likely another symptom of continued divisions within the senior hierarchy of Russia's operation as General Valery Gerasimov attempts to impose his personal authority on the campaign
Posted on 1/24/23 at 7:17 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
According to Ukraine they shot down 2 Su-25s and 1 Ka-52 helicopter today. This war has taken out almost half of Russia’s entire fleet of Ka-52s and dozens of Su-25s.
I kinda want to see some videos before I believe claims such as this. Ukraine still engages in propaganda (which is normal for a country at war). I mean, just look at what the US did with Jessica Lynch.
Ukraine routinely claims to have shot down Russian planes and helicopters, and only a small percentage of those can be documented.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 7:19 am to cypher
Tank updates...
Berlin has already received Warsaw's request for consent to the transfer of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine.
Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak reported the news via Twitter, Ukrinform saw.
"The Germans have already received our request for consent to the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine," the Polish minister wrote.
He also asked the German side to join the coalition of nations that will support Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks.
From Twitter...
Viktor Kovalenko
@MrKovalenko
The German arms maker @RheinmetallAG is ready to give #Ukraine 22 Leopard tanks now + 29 in April-May, and 88 more during 2023. Total number: 139.
Berlin has already received Warsaw's request for consent to the transfer of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine.
Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak reported the news via Twitter, Ukrinform saw.
"The Germans have already received our request for consent to the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine," the Polish minister wrote.
He also asked the German side to join the coalition of nations that will support Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks.
From Twitter...
Viktor Kovalenko
@MrKovalenko
The German arms maker @RheinmetallAG is ready to give #Ukraine 22 Leopard tanks now + 29 in April-May, and 88 more during 2023. Total number: 139.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 8:21 am to GOP_Tiger
LINK
Pretty good editorial by Boris Johnson.
“The Ukrainians need hundreds of tanks, and they should be getting them from the Americans, the Germans, the Poles, and many others. Where does the Western world need to station those tanks at the moment?
Guarding North Rhine-Westphalia? Protecting Tennessee? Prowling the villages of Wiltshire?
The same point can be made about every item of conventional weaponry that could help Ukraine bring this agony to an end.
Don't talk to me about 'escalation', or the risk that we will somehow provoke Putin, by increasing our support, to some fresh horror. Why should we fear to provoke him, when he has already shown what he will do without the slightest provocation?
How can he 'escalate', when he has already reached such a pitch of barbarism that he is systematically pulverising the homes of civilians?“
Agree with all of this. Every tank in Europe exists to prevent this very scenario. We should be obliterating any Russian personnel sleeping in Ukraine.
Pretty good editorial by Boris Johnson.
“The Ukrainians need hundreds of tanks, and they should be getting them from the Americans, the Germans, the Poles, and many others. Where does the Western world need to station those tanks at the moment?
Guarding North Rhine-Westphalia? Protecting Tennessee? Prowling the villages of Wiltshire?
The same point can be made about every item of conventional weaponry that could help Ukraine bring this agony to an end.
Don't talk to me about 'escalation', or the risk that we will somehow provoke Putin, by increasing our support, to some fresh horror. Why should we fear to provoke him, when he has already shown what he will do without the slightest provocation?
How can he 'escalate', when he has already reached such a pitch of barbarism that he is systematically pulverising the homes of civilians?“
Agree with all of this. Every tank in Europe exists to prevent this very scenario. We should be obliterating any Russian personnel sleeping in Ukraine.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 8:30 am to ned nederlander
Putin has proven one thing, he is not afraid of provoking the West.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 8:33 am to doubleb
quote:
Putin has proven one thing, he is not afraid of provoking the West.
He is likely a closeted icon kisser
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:06 am to CitizenK
WSJ:
quote:
U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine
WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.
The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.
quote:
The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.
quote:
But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.
Some Democratic lawmakers close to the White House, such as Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, have also urged that some Abrams be provided.
The provision of U.S. battle tanks has become a contentious issue within the Biden administration and was calling into question the unity of the alliance of nations supporting Ukraine.
quote:
Publicly, U.S. officials have praised Germany for other weapons contributions they have made to Ukraine, including the IRIS-T air defense system and the promise to send a Patriot antimissile battery to supplement the ones pledged by the U.S. and the Netherlands, as well as Marder infantry-fighting vehicles.
Privately, U.S. officials were frustrated by Germany’s refusal to approve the provision of German-made tanks and have debated how to persuade Berlin to change its stance.
Pentagon officials want Leopard tanks for Ukraine, but didn’t want to send the Abrams there now, arguing that the gas-guzzling tanks with their gas turbine engines and fuel requirements make them less-than-desirable for this moment in the nearly yearlong conflict.
Some State Department and White House officials, however, have been open to meeting the German demands on the Abrams to avoid a deepening rift among Ukraine’s backers over aid to Ukraine and to expedite the delivery of more armor.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:08 am to GOP_Tiger
Things are about to get interesting
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:11 am to GOP_Tiger
If they're talking old M1s with the 105mm, fine. But absolutely frick all of that if they're thinking about M1A1, M1A2 or M1A2 SEP.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:14 am to ned nederlander
quote:
Every tank in Europe exists to prevent this very scenario.
Technically they exist to defend NATO, of which Ukraine is not a member of.
I'm for playing the First Sergeant role that was part of my duties as a 1SG....Beans and Bullets.
But our top end tech that makes us the most powerful military on the planet should be reserved solely for this country.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:35 am to El Segundo Guy
Even if we ignore all the German soap opera stuff, it's just obvious that 100 Leopards isn't enough to guarantee the success of a Ukrainian spring offensive.
The one thing that would be an absolute disaster for Ukraine and for NATO would be if Ukraine were to attempt a big offensive this spring, with all this NATO weaponry ... and fail.
From the Ukrainian perspective, if the big spring offensive were to fail, it would likely result in dramatically reduced Western military support, and it could leave the war in a stalemate where Russia holds on to the territories it's conquered. And, of course, a defeat in its spring offensive would open it up to a new Russian attack that could see it lose even more land -- possibly all of the Donbas.
NATO militaries, and especially the US, absolutely do not want to see our equipment get into the hands of Russian engineers and allow them to reverse engineer stuff and find the weak points. That's besides the humiliation of having so much of our best stuff destroyed by Russia, and of course, Russia winning the war would lead to a much stronger Russia and a much greater threat to NATO in the long term.
So, the spring offensive HAS TO SUCCEED. And, just as the group of nine nations that signed the "Tallinn Statement" last week have gone all-in, the US has to go all-in as well.
The Germans are still holding on to a strategic viewpoint that was, while cynical, still held realpolitik value earlier in the war. They believed that a stalemate would weaken Russia militarily, it would also allow Europe to resume business with Russia, and there'd be no risk of a Russian collapse with the chance that someone like Prigozhin could end up controlling nukes.
That's just not possible now. Ukraine MUST win, and that means that Russia must lose. And that means that the US should go ahead and spend all the money that Congress has appropriated.
If Ukraine is able to "drive to the sea" this spring, the war will conclude on terms favorable to Ukraine, whatever the details of that end up being. If not, either Russia could win the war, or it could drag out for years.
WeeWee, you've held this position for a while, and I've disagreed and said that Ukraine would be stronger in 2024 than it will be this year. I've come around to your position, though, because I think it's becoming clear that the war is going to turn on a decisive battle this spring.
The one thing that would be an absolute disaster for Ukraine and for NATO would be if Ukraine were to attempt a big offensive this spring, with all this NATO weaponry ... and fail.
From the Ukrainian perspective, if the big spring offensive were to fail, it would likely result in dramatically reduced Western military support, and it could leave the war in a stalemate where Russia holds on to the territories it's conquered. And, of course, a defeat in its spring offensive would open it up to a new Russian attack that could see it lose even more land -- possibly all of the Donbas.
NATO militaries, and especially the US, absolutely do not want to see our equipment get into the hands of Russian engineers and allow them to reverse engineer stuff and find the weak points. That's besides the humiliation of having so much of our best stuff destroyed by Russia, and of course, Russia winning the war would lead to a much stronger Russia and a much greater threat to NATO in the long term.
So, the spring offensive HAS TO SUCCEED. And, just as the group of nine nations that signed the "Tallinn Statement" last week have gone all-in, the US has to go all-in as well.
The Germans are still holding on to a strategic viewpoint that was, while cynical, still held realpolitik value earlier in the war. They believed that a stalemate would weaken Russia militarily, it would also allow Europe to resume business with Russia, and there'd be no risk of a Russian collapse with the chance that someone like Prigozhin could end up controlling nukes.
That's just not possible now. Ukraine MUST win, and that means that Russia must lose. And that means that the US should go ahead and spend all the money that Congress has appropriated.
If Ukraine is able to "drive to the sea" this spring, the war will conclude on terms favorable to Ukraine, whatever the details of that end up being. If not, either Russia could win the war, or it could drag out for years.
WeeWee, you've held this position for a while, and I've disagreed and said that Ukraine would be stronger in 2024 than it will be this year. I've come around to your position, though, because I think it's becoming clear that the war is going to turn on a decisive battle this spring.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:46 am to GOP_Tiger
At this point, I think it's time for Russia to fear our response instead of us worrying about theirs.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:47 am to Chromdome35
What an insane concept!!
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:49 am to Chromdome35
I'm not worried about Russia, I'm concerned with keeping America the preeminent military force in the world.
If our top end tech and equipment and ammunition for that equipment goes to Ukraine, it weekena the United States military.
If our top end tech and equipment and ammunition for that equipment goes to Ukraine, it weekena the United States military.
This post was edited on 1/24/23 at 10:56 am
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:51 am to GOP_Tiger
Bloomberg: Germany to approve Poland's request to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine on Jan. 25
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 24, 2023 6:34 pm
Germany is expected to approve Poland's request to deliver German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Jan. 25, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
"Berlin wants to make a decision on the issue quickly to quell growing frustration among allies, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the decision is private," Bloomberg wrote.
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
January 24, 2023 6:34 pm
Germany is expected to approve Poland's request to deliver German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Jan. 25, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
"Berlin wants to make a decision on the issue quickly to quell growing frustration among allies, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the decision is private," Bloomberg wrote.
Posted on 1/24/23 at 10:53 am to El Segundo Guy
quote:
Technically they exist to defend NATO, of which Ukraine is not a member of.
I'm not aware of any basis for this assertion. Each NATO member state maintains its own defense force. While all are pledged to help each other under specified circumstances, the armies of each member-state, and their individually owned equipment, are not under common control or reserved only for NATO action.
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