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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:37 pm to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

And that's why the Polish MiG-29s were not sent to Ukraine; it was part of the deal to keep China from sending any aid to Russia.



Explain how giving Ukraine Slovakia's Mig29s then? Also seeing how the Chinese tires have worked for the Russians we need to scrap that deal and give Ukraine planes.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:42 pm to
I wonder if that is just for military ships or cargo vessels as well.

We all know Russia will push the line like they always do in this kind of situation so Estonias response will be interesting when that happens
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:47 pm to


The Estonia Navy consists of 3 minesweepers and 6 patrol boats. They could not close a leaky faucet with that force.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:49 pm to
Seems like a wave of resignations in Ukraine

quote:

Deputy Head of the President's Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko wrote a letter of resignation from his post, UP reports citing sources.

It is noted that instead of Tymoshenko, they plan to appoint the head of the Kyiv Regional Military Administration, Oleksii Kuleba, to the post. Also, the heads of the RMA of Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions will resign.


LINK
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:49 pm to
quote:

Explain how giving Ukraine Slovakia's Mig29s then? Also seeing how the Chinese tires have worked for the Russians we need to scrap that deal and give Ukraine planes.



Yes, I don't think it was signed in blood; according to Mathews, it was a temporary understanding.

And I have said repeatedly that now the MBT taboo has been broken, aviation is next. Ukraine has now had time to prepare new remote airstrips that Russia doesn't know about.

And soon, Ukraine is getting three Patriot batteries, a bunch more NASAMS, three more IRIS-T, and now SAMP-T (the most modern and effective air defense systems that exist), plus older stuff like Aspides and HAWKs, along with a lot more anti-air guns and simpler stuff to take down drones. Even if Russia learns where Ukrainian planes are on the ground, it won't be able to hit them.

I personally think that you'll see F-16s announced by May. I do wonder a bit if it will depend on the early success of a Ukrainian spring offensive, but I think that Ukraine will get them regardless, just like I think that they will get ATACMS.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:52 pm to
quote:

And soon, Ukraine is getting three Patriot batteries, a bunch more NASAMS, three more IRIS-T, and now SAMP-T (the most modern and effective air defense systems that exist), plus older stuff like Aspides and HAWKs, along with a lot more anti-air guns and simpler stuff to take down drones. Even if Russia learns where Ukrainian planes are on the ground, it won't be able to hit them.



Germany will deliever those IRIS-T systems the day after the war is over.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

Pro-Russian Sources are Claiming tonight that Ukrainian Defensive Positions near Klishchiivka to the Southwest of Bakhmut have collapsed with Russian Forces now less than 2 Miles from the Strategically Important T0504 Highway.


LINK
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 8:01 pm to
ABC News:

quote:

Twelve countries have agreed to supply Ukraine with around 100 Leopard 2 tanks if the German government gives its consent, according to a senior Ukrainian official who spoke exclusively to ABC News.

Those agreements, the source said, were made at Friday's summit at Ramstein US Air Force Base in Germany when allied nations discussed military support for Ukraine.

Countries such as Poland and Finland have already indicated publicly that they are willing to provide a number of their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian official with knowledge of the matter said Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark were also willing to provide some of their tanks, however Germany's consent was still necessary for the coalition of countries to proceed on the matter.


For me, a hundred is a disappointing number, but perhaps some of these countries will give more later.

quote:

However the senior Ukrainian official, who spoke with ABC News on condition of anonymity, said the German-made Leopard tanks were also urgently needed by Ukraine because its stocks of ammunition for its soviet-era tanks are "running out."
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 8:19 pm to
quote:

Twelve countries have agreed to supply Ukraine with around 100 Leopard 2 tanks if the German government gives its consent, according to a senior Ukrainian official who spoke exclusively to ABC News.


quote:

For me, a hundred is a disappointing number


I'm more concerned about German government giving consent part. Ukraine has 100 or more T80s that use a Russian made gas turbine engine and they are quickly running out of spare parts for them. Being able to transition them from T80s to Leopards would be the most efficient way to deploy the Leopards IMO. That puts the most advanced tank that the Ukrainians have into the hands of its most elite tank crews which keeps those tank crews in the fight while the Ukrainians attempt to replace the gas turbine engine in those T80s with domestic built diesel engine similar to the engines in their T80Us.

quote:

perhaps some of these countries will give more later.


No country is going to give up more than 12-14 tanks at any one time so 100 Leopards is the best that can be hoped for at this time.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 8:25 pm to
quote:

German left-wing politician Sevim Dagdelen has warned against sending heavy battle tanks to Ukraine.

It would drag Germany further into the war, she said.


LINK
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 8:27 pm to
LINK
quote:

Out of the 50,000 conscripts recruited by the Wagner Group among the convicts kept in Russian prisons, 40,000 are either dead or missing, and only 10,000 are still fighting in Ukraine, says Olga Romanova, the head of Russia Behind Bars, a charity advocating prisoners’ rights.

In a video published by the YouTube channel My Russian Rights, Romanova says:

"Our data shows that, as of late December, 42,000–43,000 inmates had been recruited. By now, this is probably upwards of 50,000. Out of that number, 10,000 are now fighting at the front, because the rest have either been killed or wounded, or went AWOL, or deserted, or surrendered."
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45567 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

Pro-Russian Sources are Claiming tonight that Ukrainian Defensive Positions near Klishchiivka to the Southwest of Bakhmut have collapsed with Russian Forces now less than 2 Miles from the Strategically Important T0504 Highway.



1. I am going to need more than just pro-Russian sources before I believe anything.

2. I don't think that the pro-Russian sources know what strategically important means. How can a highway in the Bakhmut area of operation be strategically significant when the entire fight is strategically insignificant? Even if the Russians capture Bakhmut the Ukrainians will just fall back 11.5 km to the defensives that they have prepared on the west of Bakhmut.

ETA: Multiple reliable sources on twitter are now confirming that Klishchiivka has fallen. Looks like it’s time for Ukraine to fall back to their next defensive position. I’m also seeing that Russia has suffered 20,000 casualties this month alone.
This post was edited on 1/24/23 at 7:26 am
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5910 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 8:31 pm to
quote:

Scholz and the SPD are cowards. They don't want the responsibility of a future of Germany stepping up to meet their defense needs and they are scared to death realizing that their cushy dependence on cheap Russian energy may be over. They want everything back to prewar status quo. Cheap Russian gas/ security provided by the US and social welfare for the volk. He doesn't want Ukraine to win and he doesn't want Russia to win/lose. He wants a deal.


Well said. And for a German, there is no greater pain than being wrong. The events unfolding are bringing to light how painfully wrong the Germans have been, believing the jungle will not grow back and that you can trust a den of thieves.

And if there is one thing thing more painful for a German admitting a miscalculation, it’s admitting the gauche and naive Americans were largely correct.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20974 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 8:36 pm to
Bloomberg News:

quote:

US Confronts China Over Companies’ Ties to Russian War Effort

The Biden administration has confronted China’s government with evidence that suggests some Chinese state-owned companies may be providing assistance for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, as it tries to ascertain if Beijing is aware of those activities, according to people familiar with the matter.

The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, declined to detail the support except to say that it consists of non-lethal military and economic assistance that stops short of wholesale evasion of the sanctions regime the US and its allies imposed after Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

The trend is worrying enough that US officials have raised the matter with their Chinese counterparts and warned about the implications of supplying material support for the war, the people said, though they declined to provide details of those contacts.

quote:

The administration is reviewing the evidence it’s accumulated to determine its significance. A finding that Chinese companies were supporting the invasion would have troubling implications on US policy toward both Russia and China.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15758 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

Peter Zaihan was on Rogan a couple of weeks ago and although I don't always agree with him he had some interesting and I think salient remarks on the issue.


He does have interesting things to say, but he doesn't know shiite from shinola about manufacturing and oil production/transportation and importance of type for refining and refined product.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15758 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

practice their sandwich making skills (that is a joke to any females or feminists reading this).


When I met my wife she self identified as a feminist and was constantly wanting to know if I wanted her to make a sandwich for me. Now some inside OT info, I came home one day, she was naked on the sofa and the AC must have been set at 60 deg. First thing she said was don't get any ideas, it's hot in here. I knew then that menopause was in full force.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15758 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 9:30 pm to
quote:

Turkey is showing it's arse again. Erdogan will have to be bought off after the Turkish elections.


Turkey is playing both sides like it has as long as I've known. It cannot quite afford to totally piss Russia off Yet. It has LOTS of business interests in Ukraine.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15758 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 10:42 pm to
quote:


Lets see, Russia took Popsana on May 7th, 2022. It only took 8, going on 9 months to then capture Bakhmut, if they actually take it.


Sending men in company sized waves almost all KIA.
Posted by Mr Happy
Member since May 2019
2698 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 10:59 pm to
quote:


Here you go and good luck finding the future Mrs Happy.

My friend told me that most of those sites are scams. You pay money to some agency and they never connect you with the advertised women.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105309 posts
Posted on 1/23/23 at 11:16 pm to
I'll point out that limited tactical Ukrainian tactical withdrawals last summer preceded major counteroffensives.
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