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re: Hurricane Season - NHC 92L in BOC 90%
Posted on 10/6/26 at 6:41 am to WillFerrellisking
Posted on 10/6/26 at 6:41 am to WillFerrellisking
quote:
Uh, the gulf coast is not saturated, damp maybe but not saturated.
Theres been 4-6” of rain in October so far all through the panhandle and it’s raining again this morning so I’d say at least where I am saturated is probably an understatement.
We were getting flash flood warnings overnight Sunday into Monday. Regardless of where this system lands or intensity we will have surface flooding at least in my area not to mention any storm surge with the drainage pathways already full would be amplified in the coastal areas.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 7:11 am
Posted on 10/6/26 at 6:55 am to DMagic
Interesting contrast between the global models and hurricane models.
Hurricane models show a major hurricane with a landfall between Biloxi and Mobile while global models show a sheared tropical storm with a Louisiana landfall
Hurricane models show a major hurricane with a landfall between Biloxi and Mobile while global models show a sheared tropical storm with a Louisiana landfall
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:05 am to RazorBroncs
quote:
We've got the plague making a return, a horrible stomach virus that has kept me from eating since Friday, and Arkansas football Haven't I suffered enough, I ask. Dear God, haven't I suffered enough?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:09 am to deltaland
quote:
Interesting contrast between the global models and hurricane models. Hurricane models show a major hurricane with a landfall between Biloxi and Mobile while global models show a sheared tropical storm with a Louisiana landfall
For the record, I am not a meteorguessologist but I’ve been known to make an accurate prediction or two in my time…
I was in NOLA last for the Sugar Bowl.
Went to Flamingo’s in the Warehouse District for a very late lunch before heading to the Superdome.
Ordered myself an oyster poboy to eat and a hurricane right after to drink.
I’d be careful down there and make all the preps, just in case.
Also- If I were OysterPoBoy, I’d make sure my passport isn’t expired.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 7:13 am
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:22 am to rds dc
so can anyone tell me how fricked we likely are if we have a flight out of NOLA on Friday morning at 7am, headed to Cancun?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:23 am to chRxis
quote:
can anyone tell me how fricked we likely are if we have a flight out of NOLA on Friday morning at 7am, headed to Cancun?
Nobody knows yet. Too early for airlines to throw up travel waivers, but may start seeing them late today/early tomorrow.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:24 am to chRxis
quote:?
so can anyone tell me how fricked we likely are if we have a flight out of NOLA on Friday morning at 7am, headed to Cancun
Trashy
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:38 am to Tarps99
quote:
Zack Doesn’t his wife have huge cans? Yes. They are his personal floatation devices if NOLA floods.
That’s my weatherman.
That being said, he’s usually a much more reasonable and non-sensationalist forecaster. Seems like a baw that would post here.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:38 am to LSUcdro
12z model suite. Shift back west. These will continue to flip flop until we get a fight into it and a center is established.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 7:44 am
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:42 am to LSUTiger23
EPS has every model coming in south of the lake... going up between Baton Rouge and Slidell.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 7:43 am
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:42 am to rds dc
90% chance now.
No stopping it now.
No stopping it now.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:45 am to UptownJoeBrown
Guess I'll be taking tomorrow and Thursday off to fish instead of this weekend.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:46 am to Lsut81
quote:
EPS
Is EPS the one engineering firms and plants have access to? Not familiar with it
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:46 am to Lsut81
You'll notice that from the 06z runs and 12z runs that the center location that the models are picking up changes. 12z has the center a little further south than the 06z.
Once we have a center, these models will start honing in.
Once we have a center, these models will start honing in.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:52 am to LSUTiger23
Whats the ones showing cat 2 or 3? I dont like those. Can we disregard them?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:52 am to OneSaintsFan
quote:
Is EPS the one engineering firms and plants have access to? Not familiar with it
Not sure who relies the most on it...
quote:
What is the EPS Model?
• Core Concept: Developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the EPS runs multiple parallel computer simulations (usually 50 perturbed ensemble members plus a control member) to account for the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.
• Probability Spread: Instead of showing a single deterministic path, it displays a "spaghetti plot" or spread of potential storm tracks and intensity outcomes, helping forecasters assess the likelihood of a direct hit versus a miss.
• Comparison: It serves as the European counterpart to the American Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).
Posted on 10/6/26 at 7:57 am to tide06
quote:soil moisture in coastal AL is about 25%. Not saturated by any means.
Theres been 4-6” of rain in October so far all through the panhandle and it’s raining again this morning so I’d say at least where I am saturated is probably an understatement.
quote:won’t have anything to do with soil saturation. Flash flooding can happen anywhere/anytime solely based on rainfall rates over time.
Regardless of where this system lands or intensity we will have surface flooding at least in my area not to mention any storm surge with the drainage pathways already full
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:08 am to LSUTiger23
quote:
12z model suite. Shift back west. These will continue to flip flop until we get a fight into it and a center is established.
Granted…but I’m still shocked at how tight the clustering is here.
If the center fix ends up being close to the initialization fix for these models, it doesn’t bode well.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:10 am to Mempho
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:11 am to Mempho
quote:
Granted…but I’m still shocked at how tight the clustering is here.
That is what is worrying me.
Usually you see a wide range with this much supposed uncertainty
They don't seem to be uncertain
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