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re: Hurricane Season - NHC 92L in BOC 90%
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:13 am to trussthetruzz
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:13 am to trussthetruzz
GEFS even rips up well inland on the western solutions.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:13 am to Fun Bunch
The Google Deep Mind and WeatherNext ensembles have been are consistent with their eastern track of Gulf Shores to Destin. More concerning to me is the intensity. Lots of stronger members in there.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:14 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
That is what is worrying me. Usually you see a wide range with this much supposed uncertainty They don't seem to be uncertain
That is not typical for an invest. I know that. Yesterday, we had a much wider spread, which was more typical.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:15 am to LSUTiger23
Also the 06z runs show a slower developing storm, which would mean a more west track but also would mean a weaker storm.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:16 am to CWilken21
quote:
More concerning to me is the intensity
The intensity on the models posted in here show a ramp up to a 2, maybe 3 out at sea, but once it gets closer to the coast and interacts with other conditions, a drop to a TS, maybe a 1 at landfall.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:20 am to Lsut81
When is it supposed to make landfall
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:21 am to CWilken21
Anyone know when the hunters are out there and we should know more about placement?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:21 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
Anyone know when the hunters are out there
I think this afternoon?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:24 am to CaptainsWafer
quote:
When is it supposed to make landfall
Around 100hrs from now according to most models... So Sat morning
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:25 am to CWilken21
quote:
The Google Deep Mind and WeatherNext ensembles have been are consistent with their eastern track of Gulf Shores to Destin. More concerning to me is the intensity. Lots of stronger members in there.
This is a direct word for word text of Florida Tropics on twitter. Whats up with that
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:34 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
Anyone know when the hunters are out there and we should know more about placement?
1230 central takeoff from Lakeland is what is scheduled as of now.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:34 am to Lsut81
One of my baws works for an offshore boat company that has a private weather forecasting service. I just texted him and he says they are predicting a Cat 1 with landfall on LA/ MS stateline. But he says the forecast cautioned that it is a tentative forecast subject to more incoming data in the next 24 hours.
Edit: I just reread his text and it was landfall on AL/ MS stateline.
Edit: I just reread his text and it was landfall on AL/ MS stateline.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 8:48 am
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:40 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
The Google Deep Mind and WeatherNext ensembles have been are consistent with their eastern track of Gulf Shores to Destin. More concerning to me is the intensity. Lots of stronger members in there.
quote:
This is a direct word for word text of Florida Tropics on twitter. Whats up with that
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:41 am to CWilken21
quote:
Lots of stronger members in there.
phrasing
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:42 am to rds dc
GFS brings a weak storm big rain maker into severe drought regions
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:47 am to LegendInMyMind
I am shocked a florida page is wishcasting it further east
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:52 am to trussthetruzz
Why do you think they’re wish-casting? Aren’t they just providing a forecast overlay?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:59 am to dhuck20
6z GFS which the latest run a couple hours ago, has a much weaker tropical storm but has its track making landfall around Houma/Grand Isle area
Posted on 10/6/26 at 8:59 am to dhuck20
They are using a new model that isn’t really proving yet. It’s a good model but you shouldn’t be using it to advertise a “concern”. They are famous for cherry picking the model they like to create more clicks. They use whatever model shows them getting the worst of it for clicks.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:01 am to dhuck20
quote:
Aren’t they just providing a forecast overlay?
I guess. But notice they haven't posted this mornings updated GEFS and EPS which shifted west and have FL landfalls as outliers
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