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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:09 pm to
Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
66026 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

My wife is getting laid on Davis Island right now and is supposed to catch a flight out of Tampa to Dallas at 2pm on Tuesday. I’m guessing that’s probably going to get delayed. Can someone give me some insight here? Thanks.
FIFY

tl/dr: She’s cheating on you.

Insight given.
Posted by CuseTiger
On the road
Member since Jul 2013
8243 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

Can someone give me some insight here? Thanks.

Got a few slow days at work coming up so will try to assist with travel waivers for flights as they pop up. Check the travel board and I'll start a thread likely today or tomorrow
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
145295 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

and is supposed to catch a flight out of Tampa to Dallas at 2pm on Tuesday. I’m guessing that’s probably going to get delayed. Can someone give me some insight here? Thanks.
to the bingo card
Posted by ChestRockwell
In the heart of horse country
Member since Jul 2021
2971 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:19 pm to
The final chapter / coup de grace will still come similar to Katrina, except a tad bit west. Its simply a matter of time. Hopefully it doesn't happen in our lifetime, but it's coming.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55076 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

My wife is on Davis Island right now and is supposed to catch a flight out of Tampa to Dallas at 2pm on Tuesday. I’m guessing that’s probably going to get delayed. Can someone give me some insight here? Thanks.

She will be at the mercy of whatever the airport decides. It looks to be borderline during that time in the Tampa area.

I use these just to show the arrival time of rougher weather.

HRRR 7AM wind:


NAM 1PM wind:


HRRR 7AM Reflectivity:


NAM 1PM Reflectivity:


That's as far as as the HRRR is right now. Not hurricane models, but more detailed as far as ballpark conditions than you'll get at this point from hurricane models. And it depends on track, of course, a slight shift east can change things for her timeframe.
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
7620 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

The final chapter / coup de grace will still come similar to Katrina, except a tad bit west. Its simply a matter of time. Hopefully it doesn't happen in our lifetime, but it's coming.


Ida was pretty close.

She split the uprights between Lafourche and Terrebonne. The saving grace for Ida was that it was not as large of a system as Katrina. Ida was a little more compact and the path helped the bayou communities passing that direction because the winds allowed the water to drain out as the storm approached. Also, so much more levee work has been done, it would take a pretty large surge to flood the Bayou area and the Westbank.

Also, you would be amazed that the river actually acts like a cone forcing more water into the Lake Ponchatrain basin instead of the Barataria or Terrebonne Basin.

A storm forming in the Bay of Campeche or southwestern gulf moving northeast worries me more since we would be in southerly winds for a longer time until center crosses 90 west.
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 2:05 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
127004 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:05 pm to
Referring to the NWS own definition of one of the requirements for a tropical system to be classified as a tropical storm, look at the colorized satellite loop in the OP and tell me where the "well-defined center of circulation" is in that mess.

There AIN'T one...

WELL-DEFINED...

WELL-DEFI...

WELL-D...
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55076 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:08 pm to
You sure about that? You seem awfully sure about that.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36312 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:12 pm to
The center is well defined, it just lacks a dense core.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35659 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

Referring to the NWS own definition of one of the requirements for a tropical system to be classified as a tropical storm, look at the colorized satellite loop in the OP and tell me where the "well-defined center of circulation" is in that mess.


We had a plane fly into it, it found surface winds in all directions. Thats a well defined circulation.
Posted by TigerCoon
Member since Nov 2005
18917 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:47 pm to
Idalia? Idalia. IDAlia...

It almost sounds like a real name when you repeat it.
Posted by ChestRockwell
In the heart of horse country
Member since Jul 2021
2971 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:29 pm to
I have zero confidence in my former "leaders" as to what was improved or what is in the works. Louisiana received a shite load of cash to make improvements from the feds after Katrina. Where exactly did that money go? 17th street canal pumping station , and buying out Sid Mars and shrimp boats? Disagree all you want, but I'm telling you, Louisiana will vote knuckleheads in office that will eventually have to deal with another catastrophic storm. God forbid a hurricane doesn't hit when Teedy is on office. Terrebonne and Lafourche have always flooded.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58317 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

ChestRockwell


Ok
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
127004 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:38 pm to
quote:

You sure about that? You seem awfully sure about that.


I don't see one. Do you?
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17683 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

I don't see one. Do you?

Yes

Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
127004 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:44 pm to
Nope.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58317 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:49 pm to
Not to sound rude, but do you have anything to add here or is there something else happening with your point that I’m missing?
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36312 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

I don't see one. Do you?

I saw one this morning and it was naked.
Clouds are were over that area an hour ago.
The plane should confirm.
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
39336 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:54 pm to
That plane track looks like an old Gibson.





Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35659 posts
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

LSURussian


Would you believe me when I tell you its 100% no doubt about it spinning. Ive seen the recon data.

Pressure is under 1000, it aint even a marginal case.
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