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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:27 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:27 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
You can definitely see Idalia’s spin:
3
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:28 pm to Hangit
If the 11 feet verifies - even the 7 feet - there will be some problems.
Remember, Ian surge was 12 to 13 feet on Sanibel and Fort Myers.
Remember, Ian surge was 12 to 13 feet on Sanibel and Fort Myers.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:30 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Roll Tide Ravens
See, Russian, I was too lazy to do what this baw just did. Thanks, RTR!
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:36 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Anyone who says they can see the center of circulation from that loop is not being honest.
Thats why we fly planes into em.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:38 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Remember, Ian surge was 12 to 13 feet on Sanibel and Fort Myers.
I hadn't thought to look at the final report on Ian. Max inundation at Pine Island was 6-9ft. That's where Reed Timmer rode it out and lost his car (well, it was submerged, but he found it after). I would have figured it to have been a bit higher judging by the video out of there.
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 4:39 pm
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:41 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
You could see the lower level vortex get tucked in beneath the higher level clouds. Good shot.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:48 pm to ChestRockwell
quote:
Terrebonne and Lafourche have always flooded.
I know people in Lafourche (within the levee system) who haven’t flooded since Hurricane Juan in 1985 (that was due to heavy prolonged rain)
…. below the floodgates is a different story
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:49 pm to Legion of Doom
quote:
Are there forces at work to prevent RI?
Its bloody tricky.
Theres some dry air and shear from an upper trough lurking. That should keep a lid on things for at least the next day.
At some point, on Tuesday or Wednesday, the trough should begin to help the hurricane via a strong polar outflow channel.
It could easily just run out of time to do much with it.
but
Theres a decent chance it has enough time to do something with it and get up to like a 3.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:54 pm to CuseTiger
I’m flying out of Charleston late Thursday afternoon. Seems like the storm will be well passed by the time I have to fly out ( I hope)
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:58 pm to CobraCommander83
Should be on the NC coast
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 5:07 pm
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:04 pm to Duke
18Z GFS forecast that just came out is down to at least 958 millibars. That's approaching Cat 3 winds depending on structure of storm.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:08 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
GFS forecast
Also had a tropical system in the western GOM and hopefully it stays weak and serves only as a drought buster.
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 5:23 pm
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:11 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
18Z GFS forecast that just came out is down to at least 958 millibars. That's approaching Cat 3 winds depending on structure of storm.
Yesterday:
Today:
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
Hurricanes that start with I lately have been no bueno.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:25 pm to LegendInMyMind
I need some clarification on map reading. It appears that the 4pm update moved it down the coast aboot 30 miles, now landing 3-4 miles above Horseshoe beach. Is anyone else seeing this 30 mile shift down the coast? 
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:26 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
Wow. I thought you were trolling but it’s pretty clear you’re just ignorant.
At least I know you’re a dick to everyone and not just me.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:28 pm to Hangit
quote:
I need some clarification on map reading. It appears that the 4pm update moved it down the coast aboot 30 miles, now landing 3-4 miles above Horseshoe beach. Is anyone else seeing this 30 mile shift down the coast?
Just my amateur opinion, but it’s way too early to worry about a 30 mile shift. The system is trying to get things together and the overall cone is more important right now.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:28 pm to Hangit
quote:
Is anyone else seeing this 30 mile shift down the coast?
You must be new here. It clearly shifted half an H to the East
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:30 pm to doubleb
quote:
Just my amateur opinion, but it’s way too early to worry about a 30 mile shift.
In my not amateur opinion, I agree its too early to worry about shifts in track that small. Youre generally seeing things unless the discussion notes a track shift.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:31 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
If the 11 feet verifies - even the 7 feet - there will be some problems.
Hopefully the relatively short time over water will keep storm surge on the lower end. Less time to pile up water toward the coast. At least that is what I’ll hope for.
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