re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

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Terrebonne and Lafourche have always flooded.

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Outside the main Hurricane protection. systems, yes it has always flooded. Grand Isle and Port Fourchon will always flood. They do need barriers to take the brunt of the force of the surge. They also need to construct wisely and elevate property to above the highest surge.

But there is so much more protection further north.

Levees in South Lafourche are 5 to 6 feet higher than they were for Katrina. Had they not raised the levees after Katrina, South Lafourche would have flooded. If you watched HTV’s coverage of Ida, you could see the swells hit the top of the floodgate in Golden Meadow. They increased that height 3 or 4 feet. So that has been money well spent. Had the floodgate not been improved water could have gone over the floodgate.

Terrebonne actually has 2 levees. One is the old parish levees that were fortified after Rita which held for Ike and since 2008. Newer levees are under construction that are much further out. The new levees barely held for Barry because they were still under construction in 2019. Had the levees not been built potentially 10,000 homes could have flooded again like for Rita since the storm surge was higher for Barry than Ike or Rita.

In both parishes, they have used their own locally generated tax dollars or state dollars to fortify and build new levees when needed.

The feds have been absent until recently when they finally started to allocate some funds for some projects. By using local dollars, they have been able to keep some of the federal graft that comes with some federal projects.

Don’t get me wrong, there are still some holes, a section between Larose and Pointe-Aux-Chenes needs some work to increase the height.

A flood gate is needed in the Intracoastal in Larose, as are levees that go north to Gheens and eventually to Lake Des Allemands tying into new Levees in St. Charles. This would also help the Bayou Bouef community since some of those areas flooded too for Ida.

Another floodgate is needed in the west near Gibson, but that one is less of a factor since the land is thicker there to absorb more storm surge.

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do you have anything to add here or is there something else happening with your point that I’m missing?

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Five days ago a poster in this thread (page 34) questioned if the NWS sometimes names storms prematurely, or as he put it, "Every clump of storms over water getting named."

So, I was referencing today what I wrote 5 days ago regarding storms must have a "well-defined center of circulation" in order to be defined as a tropical storm. I said I thought there were times when the NWS (or whoever names storms) jumps the gun a bit in declaring that a tropical depression has become a tropical storm based on the criteria about a well-defined center of circulation, or lack thereof.

I'm surprised you don't remember that discussion. You posted in the middle of it.

I just got the text that I am under a TS warning within the next 48, and that I can get 39-57 mph. I'm feeling skrong.

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It’s already thundering in St George.

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Putting up my shutters now and heading to Rouse’s for bread and milk. When I get back I’m going to fill up my tub.

rds or Duke. I noticed this storm is staying a Hurricane and not a major on the cone. Are there forces at work to prevent RI?

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heading to Rouse’s for bread and milk. When I get back I’m going to fill up my tub.

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You better go to Costco instead. Rouse's doesn't have that much milk.

First airline travel waiver posted by Southwest for Tuesday - Thursday next week, ton of airports included in the waiver (Destin, Ft. Myers, Tampa, Savannah, Orlando, etc). If anyone is flying this week to FL pop over to the travel board for help

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You better go to Costco instead. Rouse's doesn't have that much milk.

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Damn, should have gone for milk before doing my shutters. I need to tweak my plan.

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rds or Duke. I noticed this storm is staying a Hurricane and not a major on the cone. Are there forces at work to prevent RI?

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Dry air and shear.

4:00 PM cone. Hurricane watches now up for the big bend down to south of Tampa Bay.



NHC is noting the uncertainties with the forecast, including the potential that this could be a major hurricane:

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The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Idalia will be traversing eastern Gulf of Mexico waters of high oceanic heat content, and the environmental air mass should remain fairly moist. The flow to the east of an upper-level trough could impart some vertical wind shear over the system, but this shear could also be compensated by the conducive effect of upper-level diffluence. There is considerable spread in the model intensity guidance, ranging from minimal to major hurricane status before landfall on the northeast Gulf coast. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and remains near the higher end of the guidance. Given the uncertainties, users should monitor future NHC forecasts for possible changes in the predicted strength of Idalia, and prepare for possible significant impacts within the hurricane and storm surge watch areas.

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