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Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:22 pm to Dire Wolf
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:22 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
This Gulf disturbance won’t be very strong, but Lake Charles is on the NE of the development. I’m assuming, by the looks of the size of it, there will probably be some rain involved.
quote:
It looks like a rainmaker in an area that has gotten a good bit of rain the past two weeks
Is there any cone of uncertainty available? Looking at models it appears to drift into and across S. TX, but I haven't seen an official "cone" as of yet.
0
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:23 pm to rds dc
quote:
95L is getting that look and it might be sooner rather than later.
I’ve been watching that thing and I think it will be more than the predicted. Nothing major but a strong TS/weak Cat 1
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:24 pm to LSUtigerMD
quote:
and all of the safety-related structures are waterproofed to an elevation of 22 feet,” the report said.
That’s gonna be cutting it fricking close
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:24 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:
Doubtful. I would expect at least parts of it to be marshland.
Really think the impacts will be that devastating that far south? They should hopefully be on the weaker side of the storm. Friend of mine has a place on the water on Edisto, so I'm hoping this southern trend doesn't hold.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:25 pm to deltaland
22ft
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:27 pm to CidCock
Updated QPF (rainfall forecast) from the WPC experts... A large area of NC and VA expected to get at least 10 inches of rain and most of coastal NC 15+ with southern coastal NC 20+ inches. In tropical systems these forecasts can sometimes be underestimated with slow-moving tropical systems. Stay tuned for updates as the track and forward speed become clearer.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:27 pm to deltaland
quote:
I’ve been watching that thing and I think it will be more than the predicted. Nothing major but a strong TS/weak Cat 1
You realize it getting its arse sheared to death and it will continue throughout the gulf. It might make it to a weak TS.
It might go inland around Corpus and maybe SW LA will get some rain out of it Thursday.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:28 pm to jefffan
quote:
You didn't flood s few years ago? You choose a nice spot lol
Nah, back during the 2015 flood I was living in Batesburg.
We were super paranoid about flood prone areas when looking for our current house though. In fact walked away from an absolutely perfect house, complete remodel and everything, because we found out it flooded...bad...during 2015.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:30 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
In tropical systems these forecasts can sometimes be underestimated with slow-moving tropical systems.
Yep. Harvey says "hi".
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:31 pm to wareagle47
quote:
I'm supposed to play there in late October. Hope it survives unscathed.
Ocean was almost on the driving range last time I was there. Remember a caddie telling me if a storm hit it, it was a goner. Hope it survives!
P.S. bring a lot of money! One expensive day of golf!
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:32 pm to Duke
quote:
Ensembles really clear up the picture...
It should also be noted that there is an up tick in Isaac tracks making it to the WCAB and turning north.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:34 pm to Centinel
My crawl space / duct work flooded, I'm near Crayton MS
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:34 pm to deltaland
Levi tweeted that there seems to be a bit of shear on the SW side that might be limiting the bands on that side. Using my not expert eye, might be some signs of this on the NE of the storm. A little bit of stretch to the thin wispy clouds going SW to NE. Which would be limiting strengthening a bit.
*this is the sort of thing rds can verify/explain where I'm wrong. Don't take this as gospel.
*this is the sort of thing rds can verify/explain where I'm wrong. Don't take this as gospel.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:35 pm to rds dc
quote:
Ensembles really clear up the picture...
This is the first time Im seeing this chart...what exactly is this...for someone who doesnt know.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:35 pm to deltaland
I feel bad for all of the people who are now having to decide whether they need to leave or if they can stay, there are people who this time yesterday thought they were good to stay, and suddenly it looks like they may need to leave.
Safe decision is to leave if you’re even under a threat. There will no doubt be people who will complain about having left if their area doesn’t get hit. I don’t think you can chance it, though.
Safe decision is to leave if you’re even under a threat. There will no doubt be people who will complain about having left if their area doesn’t get hit. I don’t think you can chance it, though.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:37 pm to rds dc
That GIF looks like GOKU sends a Spirit Bomb to NC/SC border 
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:37 pm to deltaland
quote:
I’ve been watching that thing and I think it will be more than the predicted. Nothing major but a strong TS/weak Cat 1
They say they may do a recon tomorrow, I suspect we won’t have much information until then
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:38 pm to CidCock
quote:
My crawl space / duct work flooded, I'm near Crayton MS
Ya the house that we wanted was on St. Claire. Ended up getting a completely renovated gut job on Verner instead. Guy dropped massive cash in to the house, added 1400 square feet of space, then got caught cheating. Had to sell fast.
His loss, my gain.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:41 pm to Dire Wolf
Is there a recon of Florence happening right now?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:41 pm to Centinel
5pm EDT advisory out. Winds back up to 140mph, pressure down to 945mb.
Waiting on map to come out.
Waiting on map to come out.
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 3:43 pm
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