re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

The initial motion estimate is now 300/15 kt. There remains no
significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Overall,
the global and regional models have done a good job capturing the
evolving synoptic- scale flow pattern across CONUS, with an
amplifying trough moving onshore the the northwestern U.S. coast,
which is inducing downstream ridging across the northeastern U.S.
and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Water vapor imagery indicates
that the blocking high pressure northwest of Bermuda is continuing
to build and shift slowly eastward. The 12Z GFS model made a
significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,
and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72
hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track
shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite
uncertain. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the
previous two advisory tracks, and lies the middle of the guidance
envelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and the HCCA
and FSSE models to the south.

That's the hurricane center's thinking.

Basically, all the models are pretty much on the same track through Thursday. Then it gets quite difficult as steering disappears.

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Which is more accurate?

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The Euro is typically "better" but it's not perfect, and the forecasters use a slew of them to make forecasts. So don't follow one model.

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Which one is the weather channel using?

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IDK. They showed the Euro a lot this morning but the cone is that of the NHC.

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The weather channel changes it constantly and even admits they don't know but then show the cone getting smaller, YET use language that leads one to believe they have no idea.

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The cone shrinks due to it just being a span of 66% of the track error over that timeframe for the past few years. It DOES NOT indicate track confidence. I don't mean to sound in any way hostile, just want to nail that point down.

After Thursday, there is a significant question mark on the track.

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I mean, myself and many others have been prepping and planning for Wed. now it's landfall Fri. I wish the local authorities would figure this out with the experts so I know what to do.

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They are consulting the experts, but even the experts are going to struggle to nail down the forward speed and track over the next few days. Prepare like they're telling you to, watch the NHC/Wilmington NWS/local news for the best info.

phones in my house are going nuts with the EBS saying Hurricane Warning in my area. They just moved from watch to Warning.

shite just got real...

The models and info posted here are incredibly useful

The weather channel is saying in Raleigh they’re expecting 40mph winds and 3-5” of rain. Where the hell are they getting this because everything I am seeing is way above their numbers?

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I didn't understand the steering currents part completely.

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Well the experts aren't sure either outside of the short term. Mostly because as the high pressure she's riding around currently moves back there are things blocking her movement north but nothing otherwise to push her. So it gets dicey right near landfall.

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Is there any way the stall part for 24 hours is (PLEASE) inaccurate at this time because they lose track of the steering of it?

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I'd expect the stall. Note, it's not so much that they lose track of the steering as much as it just really isn't there.

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Thanks I am sorry I guess I am so used to them at this stage saying with pretty much good accuracy where it will landfall and if it will stall and so forth..

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You're in the expected path of a major hurricane, I can't fault you for the unease with the late end forecast. Grew up in Mobile, live in Louisiana, I know the feeling of a storm coming your way and the frustration when the forecast isn't certain.

All you can do is prepare for the worst outcomes, listen to the most current information from good sources, and act accordingly. I don't envy your position, and hope it stalls far enough SE to limit your impacts.

Yes I will be posting because I have a whole home generator. If I evac I won't bore you with pics or video. We moved into our home we built a few months ago out in the country surrounded by woods.

We were in the process of building a back workshop B4 the Hurricane- I called the insurance guy and we are covered after I send pictures when it is done tomorrow. So, if I stay I will video my husbands workshop/shed and be as sad as shed people if it flys away.

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I will video my husbands workshop/shed and be as sad as shed people if it flys away.

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slap a coat, not too late.

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