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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:19 pm to GetCocky11
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:19 pm to GetCocky11
Sure hoping thats the case.
0
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:19 pm to slackster
quote:
I'm going to be out of pocket here shortly for the rest of the evening
What's his name?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:20 pm to rds dc
18z Euro barely moves Dorian from Hrs 48 - 90. It is hard to imagine that some small scale feature in the Northern Stream, that the models are not handling properly, doesn't spring the hatch allowing an escape out to sea.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:20 pm to lsuman25
Holy shite.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:21 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
What's his name?
Ramon. I don't know how to type an accent mark on the "o", but he has one.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:21 pm to slackster
quote:
Yeah we're getting to the point where there is only one way out and it's slow and north.
fricks the Bahamas especially hard
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:22 pm to slackster
quote:
Track seems to be shifting the right direction. Mar A Lago may be spared the worst of this storm if the trend keeps up.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:27 pm to HandGrenade
quote:
So not great
But not terrible. I'm told it's the equivalent of a chest x-ray.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:27 pm to rds dc
quote:
18z Euro barely moves Dorian from Hrs 48 - 90. It is hard to imagine that some small scale feature in the Northern Stream, that the models are not handling properly, doesn't spring the hatch allowing an escape out to sea
Can you explain this post? Are you saying that you think there is a likely OTS path that models are missing?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:27 pm to cajuncarguy
quote:
...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:28 pm to rt3
This thing is gonna get beastly before it hopefully turns out to the Atlantic and then rains on the drunks in Scotland
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:30 pm to rds dc
quote:
It is hard to imagine that some small scale feature in the Northern Stream, that the models are not handling properly, doesn't spring the hatch allowing an escape out to sea.
Those storms over Missouri today have my attention. The 12z Euro initialized with the vort actually there over W Missouri vs not there on the 12z yesterday. Shows up on the 500 heights too. Would dig the trough in a little deeper (Euro shows it) right?
Heights fall a little more ahead of it for our steering ridge and we've got a good window.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:38 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
This thing is gonna get beastly before it hopefully turns out to the Atlantic and then rains on the drunks in Scotland
Ah, the Peej projection.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:39 pm to Duke
Jesus man. With this sort of rapid intensification it could be a 5 at landfall.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:39 pm to Duke
At least it has a long way to go to reach cat 5 status.
Am I correct in thinking that you knowledgeable fellers are thinking it may stall out, sit in place and churn, and get caught up in being pushed northeast?
Am I correct in thinking that you knowledgeable fellers are thinking it may stall out, sit in place and churn, and get caught up in being pushed northeast?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:40 pm to jdd48
mandatory evacuation order in Brevard Co., Fla.
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:40 pm to jdd48
Brevard County, FL has issued mandatory evacuations.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:44 pm to jdd48
quote:
Jesus man. With this sort of rapid intensification it could be a 5 at landfall.
Good news, water in front of him for the next day or so isn't super warm. Not sure he can get too much stronger short term. (Didn't see the water temp earlier when I was suggesting Dorian would push Cat 5 on this intensification cycle)
Dorian will have a chance to get to a 5 Sunday (not great news for the Bahamas). The thing is, after that, he stalls or at least slows up substantially. Being close to the gulf stream should limit the upwelling effect but it would probably be enough to drop Dorian back down some.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:49 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
I’m cool with that, as long as South Carolina doesn’t get fricked as a result.
Right now the projected path looks somewhat similar to the path Matthew took. I live in the Pee Dee and I don't think we could handle another year of major flooding and shite getting fricked up.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:50 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
You think it will still be a CAT 4 by the time it gets to Orlando?
I don't have a clue.....but I know at less than a few hundred miles from Orlando it will be according to what we are being told now.....so id hate to guess in this situation.
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