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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:01 pm to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:01 pm to
The last part has me
Posted by biggsc
Member since Mar 2009
34777 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:03 pm to
Dang
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 7:36 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

I'm following a pretty eclectic group on Twitter. My feed is typically full of NWS or met tweets with a healthy mix of Tiger Woods updates


Sub Tiger with some finance/econ people and soccer, and pretty much.

quote:

a few single cousins who retweet every "I don't need no man" variation they can find.




There's a reason I don't follow friends or family.

ETA: Seeing a 114 kt surface unflagged
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 7:08 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

and a few single cousins who retweet every "I don't need no man" variation they can find.

sounds like some Patty & Selmas
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:08 pm to
quote:

ETA: Seeing a 114 kt surface unflagged

131 mph
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:08 pm to
Track seems to be shifting the right direction. Florida may be spared the worst of this storm if the trend keeps up.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:09 pm to
Posted by HandGrenade
Member since Oct 2010
11234 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:10 pm to
Is that good or bad
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12620 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:11 pm to
125 knots = 144 mph
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 7:12 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:12 pm to
quote:

Is that good or bad


It'd suggest a 115 kt (132 mphish) intensity, which would be a Cat 4. Which isn't great if you're in it but long term, it's still about where it is when it turns.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:14 pm to
quote:

125 knots = 144 mph


Flight level though.

Take 10% off, supports 130 at least. Surface obs (no sonde yet) has 114 kt. Think I'd call it 115 kt.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:14 pm to
quote:

125 knots = 144 mph



This is only at flight level, not surface.
Posted by HandGrenade
Member since Oct 2010
11234 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:14 pm to
So not great
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:15 pm to
That's their second pass with unflagged 114kt winds. They should've held off the last advisory for 15 minutes.
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12620 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:16 pm to
You are correct Duke.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:16 pm to
quote:


That's their second pass with unflagged 114kt winds. They should've held off the last advisory for 15 minutes.


They'll run a special update I suspect. Can't really hold off on a scheduled update.
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:16 pm to
Coastal Georgia is not looking like a good time next week.
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109111 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:17 pm to
quote:

Track seems to be shifting the right direction. Florida may be spared the worst of this storm if the trend keeps up.



I’m cool with that, as long as South Carolina doesn’t get fricked as a result.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:17 pm to
quote:

That's their second pass with unflagged 114kt winds. They should've held off the last advisory for 15 minutes.

I've seen them come out with a special hurricane statement to upgrade a storm between advisories

I figure they could do that here between now and the 10 PM advisory if they deem they need to do that
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:17 pm to
quote:

Track seems to be shifting the right direction. Florida may be spared the worst of this storm if the trend keeps up.


Yeah we're getting to the point where there is only one way out and it's slow and north. Hopefully the Euro verifies.

From what I can tell, the 18z is on the same spot as the 12z through Saturday at 11 PM.
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