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Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:51 pm to Hangit
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:51 pm to Hangit
quote:
it may stall out, sit in place and churn, and get caught up in being pushed northeast?
This has been the general idea for the last day or two. The questions have been timing of Dorian (keeps slowing up on the models), strength of northern trough and how it modifies the current steering from the W ATL ridge.
I'm leaning more and more toward the center staying off Florida, but I'd actually trust the NHC if I was in the path over me (you know since they're the best in the world and I post on the OT).
3
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:51 pm to ScaryClown
quote:
gotta be honest... I don’t like your attitude
Sounds like a you issue
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:51 pm to Duke
quote:
not great news for the Bahamas
Poor northern Bahamas are about to get slammed and nobody is talking about them.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:53 pm to Duke
Are you just a weather nerd (all love) or a professional?
Not questioning your skills either way. Appreciate your contributions.
Not questioning your skills either way. Appreciate your contributions.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:56 pm to roadGator
quote:
Are you just a weather nerd (all love) or a professional?
Nerd, but currently back in school getting a degree in meteorology to be a pro.
rds is actually a pro though.
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 7:58 pm
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:58 pm to Duke
Nice
Posted on 8/30/19 at 7:59 pm to Duke
That’s cool. When’s the next update?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:00 pm to biggsc
quote:
When’s the next update?
11 PM ET/10 PM CT
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:00 pm to Duke
Has THC ever measured Hurricane’s hitting cities in probabilities rather than cones?
For instance-
Miami 20% currently
WPB 30%
Melbourne 50%
We measure probability of rainfall in %’s why not hurricane’s?
For instance-
Miami 20% currently
WPB 30%
Melbourne 50%
We measure probability of rainfall in %’s why not hurricane’s?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:00 pm to roadGator
I hope that bastard turns right before it gets to you guys. 
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:01 pm to roadGator
Lucky my wife has a decent income and a stable job.
That and is willing (and supportive) to let me go chase this dream.
That and is willing (and supportive) to let me go chase this dream.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:01 pm to rt3
I have a relative that lives in Brevard County that just told me they don’t have flood insurance. They live 5 blocks from the Atlantic, WOW. I’m speechless right now.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:01 pm to rt3
Thank you
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:02 pm to rds dc
More and more models are taking this thing further and further east. This will stay off shore it looks like, maybe a threat to NC, but with all the new models pushing it further and further out total miss of land chances are growing.
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:02 pm to Dick Jacket
quote:
Are you saying that you think there is a likely OTS path that models are missing?
Models have been trending that way. I'm not predicting anything but based on climo it will be hard to stall a powerful hurricane in that area and not have it eventually find a weakness. Also, models have a hard time with shortwaves in the NS since there is a lack of data from over the NPAC. The s/w most likely to do the deed is currently over the NPAC with an initial kicker coming down out of Northern Canada.
Now, a lot can happen between now and then, esp. if Dorian doesn't stall. Either one of those s/w could shear out or amp up more altering the overall pattern.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:02 pm to rt3
What are some links where I could look at the different models and other stuff?
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:03 pm to AncientTiger
quote:
Has THC ever measured Hurricane’s hitting cities in probabilities rather than cones?
Better to have everyone in the cone prepare than have some places with high % vs low ones.
Imagine they say it's a 15% chance into Miami and then it hits there.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:03 pm to Clockwatcher68
We will not risk riding out cat 3 or more.
I'm lucky in that i can bug out to orlando and work there for a week and take the family.
Keep hoping for more turn to the east.
Duke, that is awesome. Congrats.
I'm lucky in that i can bug out to orlando and work there for a week and take the family.
Keep hoping for more turn to the east.
Duke, that is awesome. Congrats.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:04 pm to rds dc
quote:
Also, models have a hard time with shortwaves in the NS since there is a lack of data from over the NPAC. The s/w most likely to do the deed is currently over the NPAC with an initial kicker coming down out of Northern Canada.
Thanks for that. Useful explaination for me to see.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 8:06 pm to AncientTiger
quote:
Has THC ever measured Hurricane’s hitting cities in probabilities rather than cones?
For instance-
Miami 20% currently
WPB 30%
Melbourne 50%
We measure probability of rainfall in %’s why not hurricane’s?
Kinda sorta. They produce a wind speed probability product that lists locations in the path and the probability that they'll see winds of a certain strength for each 12 hour period over several days. So, for instance, you can read the chart and see the percentage change they're predicting that Miami will get tropical storm force winds for each 12 hour period through Tuesday. The wind speed predictions stop at hurricane force winds, though. Still, you can see where they're predicting the highest chance of each wind category for each period of time.
It's called "Wind Speed Probabilities" and it's listed on their webpage with the other products they produce for the storm.
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 8:14 pm
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