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1
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:37 pm to chRxis
quote:
elec has held up to this point, so each minute it goes east, gives me more confidence that we may not lose power at all... which would be awesome
Why would you say this out loud?
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:38 pm to 3HourTour
quote:
I tend to agree. I think north AP will miss the brunt of it. Lights still on here in Pville
Same. Off of 42. Lost it for a minute, but as soon as Generator kicked on it came back on.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:38 pm to Slippy
Hmmm thought all was well and now I have a steady stream of water dripping out of my ceiling speaker in my living room. Wonderful. Still have power in metairie
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:38 pm to C9
quote:
You're wrong, cone changed.
No, he's not.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:38 pm to 3HourTour
Boutte probably getting hammered right now like the 2021 LSU football team
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:39 pm to 3HourTour
quote:
Lights still on here in Pville.
Probably not for long but I’m here witchu baw crossing Dem doights
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:39 pm to yaboidarrell
[img]How're the JP baws doing?[/img]
Metairie, doing fine.
Metairie, doing fine.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:39 pm to The Boat
I'm getting hammered here too. sheesh
*in addition to the drinking to be clear*
*in addition to the drinking to be clear*
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 7:40 pm
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:39 pm to caill430
Bogalusa, Kentwood, McComb. Yall are in for a long night coming your way next.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:39 pm to The Boat
quote:
Boutte probably getting hammered right now like the 2021 LSU football team
Honestly it isn’t that bad so far. Power flickering. But so far so good.
Like that other guy said. It’s like 6 inches of pounding right now for Boutte
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:40 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:40 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Im too lazy to go back and check exact coordinate predictions and actual plot points
But I guarantee its been 20 miles east or so all day
Again, not that 20 miles matters for planning but when all models are east why not keep nudging it a bit east to make yourself look good?
Because they don't measure themselves in hours.
I realize that's not an answer people want to hear, but it's the truth.
They'll measure how they did on their 12/24 hour increments and judge from there.
For example, at their 10am advisory they issued a 7PM location forecast. I believe that's considered a 12 hour forecast the way they set things up. They missed by 32 n miles. That's outside of their average miss of 26 at that interval over the last 5 years. That's probably considered a miss in their eyes, so maybe they'll reassess, but that's how they look at it.
It's also worth noting they measure misses in totality based on the intervals. If they say it is going to hit New Orleans proper in 24 hours, and instead it hits New Orleans proper in 48 hours, they'll still count that missed difference, when a lay person would typically applaud them getting it right.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:40 pm to slackster
quote:
They don't predict the center line - they just predict the location of the storm at certain intervals. People freak out over where the line is, but it is literally just connect the dots once they put down the center forecast. Every 6 hours they update the intervals, so a 4 mile west movement of the line doesn't mean they've shifted the track west at all - it could just be the angle between the intervals.
Here is another gif illustrating that point specifically for the intermediate updates:
So yeah the “track” might have moved 10 miles but as you said, nothing in the forecast has actually changed.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:40 pm to Marco Esquandolas
Lived on East William David for 5 years while I was in Dental school 98-03
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:40 pm to Pendulum
quote:
Still have power in metairie
Starting to do some flickering in Old Metairie.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:40 pm to The Boat
quote:
Boutte
Kayshon or Marc?
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:41 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
That was the most intense few minutes so far in Metairie
Defintely made me pay attention
Decent gusts for sure
Defintely made me pay attention
Decent gusts for sure
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:41 pm to CE Tiger
quote:
Lights flickering in Metairie by causeway and west esplanade
That’s a cool area.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 7:41 pm to TigeRoots
quote:
Lost it for a minute, but as soon as Generator kicked on it came back on.
Same in downtown St Amant.
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