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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:25 am to RB10
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:25 am to RB10
quote:
I should have brushed up on that old report. I thought their high end estimate for the US was 1.6 million
And that was with MITIGATION, not suppression.
0
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:28 am to VABuckeye
quote:
Neil Ferguson has now clarified his statement which was misinterpreted. Here is the clarification.
Thanks.
It's too bad so many posters took the summarization of his statements by a NYT contributor as gospel. Sad to see.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:30 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
NYT
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:34 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Thanks.
It's too bad so many posters took the summarization of his statements by a NYT contributor as gospel. Sad to see.
So his 500k initial estimate, which he's admitted isn't going to happen, is gospel again?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:35 am to RB10
Nope. Nothing in this situation is gospel.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:39 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
It's too bad so many posters took the summarization of his statements by a NYT contributor as gospel. Sad to see.
His own paper contradicts this
quote:
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we
would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A)... In total, in an
unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the
US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on
mortality.
Ok, fine, if we do absolutely nothing it will kill a ton of people. Makes sense. But later on, he talks about what mitigation will accomplish
quote:
Conditional on that duration, the most effective
combination of interventions is predicted to be a combination of case isolation, home quarantine and
social distancing of those most at risk (the over 70s). Whilst the latter has relatively less impact on
transmission than other age groups, reducing morbidity and mortality in the highest risk groups
reduces both demand on critical care and overall mortality. In combination, this intervention strategy
is predicted to reduce peak critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number of deaths.
However, this “optimal” mitigation scenario would still result in an 8-fold higher peak demand on
critical care beds over and above the available surge capacity in both GB and the US.
So the most effective combo would 1/2 deaths, which in the UK would mean 250,000. Yet he's now at 20,000? Nowhere in this paper is that type of decrease even remotely hinted at
Original Study
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:43 am to escatawpabuckeye
quote:
I’m from Ohio and went to school there; my wife is from Hurley, MS and we have family in escatawpa/gautier/moss point.
As a consequence I’ve spent a bit of time on that particular stretch of the coast.
Ya, I was going to say not many people get out of Escatawpa to go to college, much less Ohio St.
Neat connection.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:48 am to frankthetank
What happens first...this thread reaches 1000 pages or the curve flattens in Louisiana?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:54 am to lakeviewtiger
quote:
What happens first...this thread reaches 1000 pages or the curve flattens in Louisiana?
Just because the number of people testing positive doubles basically every day doesn't mean twice as many people are contracting it every day.
We'll likely never know the true curve, but I'm sure if we did, we would see this helping. Do you not think it is helping?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:56 am to TheCaterpillar
another death in st. tammany parish last night.
hospitalized since early mid march, numerous other underlying conditions etc.
hospitalized since early mid march, numerous other underlying conditions etc.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:58 am to OldManRiver
quote:
Conditional on that duration, the most effective
combination of interventions is predicted to be a combination of case isolation, home quarantine and
social distancing of those most at risk (the over 70s). Whilst the latter has relatively less impact on
transmission than other age groups, reducing morbidity and mortality in the highest risk groups
reduces both demand on critical care and overall mortality. In combination, this intervention strategy
is predicted to reduce peak critical care demand by two-thirds and halve the number of deaths.
I think you are misunderstanding what he saying here. He is saying that a MITIGATION strategy, which is basically "quarantine the olds and let everyone else go about their lives" could result in those numbers.
I believe he is now saying that the SUPPRESSION strategy, which is what countries are actually doing, everyone social distancing, everyone shelter in place, only essential businesses being open could result in that 20k number.
SK was able to effectively do a mitigation strategy because they got way out in front on testing. The rest of the world isn't there yet, but the US is working hard to get there.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:08 am to TheCaterpillar
This guy is also now saying that the virus is more transmissible than originally projected, while also saying the mortality rate is exactly the same.
That doesn't track, at all.
That doesn't track, at all.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:30 am to MusclesofBrussels
quote:
He was recommending to the UK government that they implement these mass shutdowns for swine flu...
So sounds like he will be the Chicken Little go-to for future pandemics.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:32 am to lakeviewtiger
quote:
1000 pages
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:37 am to lakeviewtiger
quote:
What happens first...this thread reaches 1000 pages or the curve flattens in Louisiana?
Between the average of 5-7 days for symptoms to show and 3-5 days for testing results, you are talking an easy 10 day lag in cases reported for any action you may implement.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:52 am to barry
Holy shite Italy
WTF
WTF
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:52 am to barry
New cases going down for Italy which is good - 5,909 new cases.
Deadliest day so far though - 919 new deaths
Deadliest day so far though - 919 new deaths
Posted on 3/27/20 at 11:53 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Metro Public Health Department officials announced today a total number of 312 confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nashville/Davidson County, an increase of 20 cases in the past 24 hours. The ages of confirmed cases range from two months to 84 years. A second patient, a 67-year-old man who had underlying health conditions, has died after a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. Twelve (12) other patients remain hospitalized. Fifty-five (55) people have recovered from the virus. The remaining cases are self-isolating at home and have mild and manageable symptoms.
Total number of Cases: 312
Number of Cases confirmed today: 20
Cases by sex
Male: 153
Female: 155
Unknown: 4
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:02 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Deadliest day so far though - 919 new deaths
Someone posted this could be due to backlog testing... whereas they died days or weeks ago and the results just now came back.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:14 pm to Lsut81
It's all relative. Every day has back log testing. So every day is counting deaths from days or weeks ago. Making it the deadliest day so far still. Unless, of course, one is conveniently saying that reporting for every other day was reporting only that day's deaths.
And I have no idea if the numbers are correct or what is the biggest. Just pointing out the problem with the logic.
And I have no idea if the numbers are correct or what is the biggest. Just pointing out the problem with the logic.
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