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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:36 pm to
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

Well, I wish everyone with even mild symptoms could get tested and try and isolate it as much as possible but I don’t make those decisions.

You don't need testing for any of that. You just need people to not be shitbags and stay the frick home if they have a cough or a fever.

PROTIP: People are shitbags.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 1:37 pm
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

The flu killed ~35,000 people last year. I wouldn't call that a small number.


Not so fast. From the CDC.

quote:

We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5326 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

Fly into HK or SG anytime of the year, not just bc of this, and they are temperature testing as you walk to customs. The fact that the US wasn’t doing so over a week after the blowup of this in Asia was incompetence. Wouldn’t have stopped, but slowed so things could be mitigated. Maybe even the CDC could have had time to get the tests right the first time


I don't think airport testing accomplishes much of anything. Too many, probably a large majority, slip through surveillance. And, until last week the CDC couldn't produce enough tests to test people who were suspected. You can slow it down some by stopping all flights, but it would literally have to be all flights into the country from everywhere, and even then it would seep across the borders and continue spreading via cases already inside the country.

The main tool was and is widespread testing. That will help identify people who potentially need care and who need to self-isolate. Testing can also identify a regional hotspot but, Chinese data aside, I'm not sure how much that will help. If people refuse to self-isolate or obey a quarantine, then it becomes a political quagmire.

But, the main advantage of testing IMO, is that seeing local numbers helps people at high risk to understand that they need to self isolate before they get the infection. That alone could go a long way toward reducing the sudden build-up in hospital case load.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 1:48 pm
Posted by SCTmo
Des Moines
Member since Aug 2007
3019 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

If people refuse to self-isolate or obey a quarantine, then it becomes a political quagmire.


And therein lies the true issue with our country. You'll either have some lawyer from the NAACP yelling racism when a particularly urban area is quarantined or some idiot screaming like Randy Marsh that, "I thought this was America," when he's told he can't leave his town. Too many folks on too many sides don't give a frick about anyone but themselves.
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
46731 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

You just need people to not be shitbags and stay the frick home if they have a cough or a fever.

PROTIP: People are shitbags.


Yeah, I already figured that in. Pisses me off when people do that.
Posted by lsunurse
Member since Dec 2005
129146 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

You don't need testing for any of that. You just need people to not be shitbags and stay the frick home if they have a cough or a fever.


Yeah the moment people know they can be tested for mild symptoms....clinics and ERs and urgent cares will be flooded with people wanting to be tested. Waiting areas will be packed with sick people (some that might legit have COVID-19). Which will just cause it to spread around even more.

This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 1:43 pm
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
46731 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 1:44 pm to
Sorry but “don’t test, don’t know” isn’t satisfactory
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 1:46 pm
Posted by mjax57
Vinings, GA
Member since Mar 2012
5097 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:00 pm to
I had something similar in early Jan.. basically coughing up sputum for a few weeks, chills to the point I couldn’t warm up even in a burning shower, literally told my wife I thought I was going to die for a couple of days. I went to urgent care and my HR/pulse was so high, they ran an EKG on me at 29 years old. Basically, doc was stunned and gave me some steroids and told me to rest because he couldn’t pin point anything.
Posted by cameronml
Member since Oct 2007
1934 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

I had something similar in early Jan.. basically coughing up sputum for a few weeks, chills to the point I couldn’t warm up even in a burning shower, literally told my wife I thought I was going to die for a couple of days. I went to urgent care and my HR/pulse was so high, they ran an EKG on me at 29 years old. Basically, doc was stunned and gave me some steroids and told me to rest because he couldn’t pin point anything.


I also had something similar in mid-Jan as well and live in a major metropolitan US city. About 12-15 hours of terrible chills/fever, thinking I was going to die. Then spent the next three weeks hacking up mucus and having dry coughing bouts. It sounds a lot like the symptoms people have described of COVID-19, but who knows

My hypothesis - If the first case in Wuhan was Dec 1, and they didn't implement all the quarantine measures until mid-Jan, there's no doubt many people in the US have already had this and some potentially died from it. It was just never diagnosed as such. We're just hearing about a spread now due to actual testing being done.
Posted by cattus
Member since Jan 2009
15950 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:11 pm to
We had the only U.S. case here in Seattle for some time, you know there were more. Wonder how they decided that person had it. My girlfriends co worker was also very sick and convinced something was wrong and went to the doctor...she was basically told to kick rocks.
Posted by madamsquirrel
The big somewhere out there
Member since Jul 2009
56265 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

self isolate


Most workers in the US would lose their jobs if they did this. Employers do not care if you are hacking coughing etc as long as they still make money. I hear Louisiana is maybe worse about this than other states.
Posted by DallasTiger11
Los Angeles
Member since Mar 2004
13560 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

Most workers in the US would lose their jobs if they did this. Employers do not care if you are hacking coughing etc as long as they still make money. I hear Louisiana is maybe worse about this than other states.

They need to get the frick over it. Plenty of companies can implement work from home policies for the next few months for many workers. This would certainly help.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5326 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Most workers in the US would lose their jobs if they did this [self-isolate]. Employers do not care if you are hacking coughing etc as long as they still make money.


It depends on which group you're talking about. If the govt says self-isolate at home because you're infected, then not many companies can or will disagree.

If you're talking about voluntary self-isolation for high risk groups, my guess is that most of the 70+ cohort are retired. A fairly high percentage of those with existing severe health problems in the 60 - 70 group are retired. If those groups can minimize their exposure, it would potentially reduce the sudden build-up of hospital cases.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 2:26 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21540 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:29 pm to
Posted by Tigris
Cloud Cuckoo Land
Member since Jul 2005
13136 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

But the current CFR rate in SK is .68% way lower than estimated


I'd like to think that number means something, but this is still pretty new in South Korea, and deaths can take a while. Johns Hopkins shows 7,314 confirmed cases in South Korea with 50 deaths and only 118 recovered. So you could argue that the death rate for resolved cases is 50/(50+118) or 30%. And it would be wildly premature to go with this number. Similarly, simply dividing 50/7,314 to give the 0.68% rate is way too early to mean anything. Only 1.6% of cases have recovered. Unfortunately there will be a lot of deaths among the currently infected and the CFR will rise.
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:31 pm to
Or South Korea is being very conservative in what they are calling a recovery.

By the statistics they seem to have a much higher percentage of people still sick but holding on than any other country.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 2:33 pm
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
61475 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

Might as well have people not panic until the shite hits the fan.


You can stop a lot of shite from hitting the fan by getting out the word early to take precautions. Instead it was poo pooed as no big deal which will lead to an even bigger pile of shite flying every which way.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
61475 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

They need to get the frick over it. Plenty of companies can implement work from home policies for the next few months for many workers. This would certainly help.


Working from home is an impossibility for more than half of the US work force.
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:38 pm to
Saudi Arabia is doing a great job of being proactive. Shoutout to them.
Posted by ulsaint
Member since Oct 2007
2460 posts
Posted on 3/8/20 at 2:40 pm to
From a public relations perspective, it is ALWAYS better to get in front of a crisis rather than try to cover it up.

Granted, this is a medical issue, but I think the same principles apply.

South Korea is taking the proactive approach. Acknowledging the problem and taking major measures to test everyone. As a result, they may be overloading their HC system.

However, in the long run, I think they are doing the best thing for their country.

Conversely, we continue to downplay the issue. Seem more worried about calming people than being frank about the danger and at worst are covering up the issue via a lack of testing.

I am positive that when it's all said and done, case studies on how NOT to manage an epidemic will be written about the US response. On the flip side, S. Korea and Singapore will be models for how to do it right.

We fricked this up. It's pathetic that our response is more inline with Iran than S. Korea. Down play down play while the numbers silently explode.

This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 2:42 pm
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