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Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:21 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
Thankfully Louisiana has ran off many large corporations where people would be traveling the world back and forth.
1D Checkers>3D Chess
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:22 am to frankthetank
For those injecting politics into this thread, it would be nice if you could discuss that on the politics board. If your goal is to change minds, it'll never happen. If your goal is to bring relevant information, the injection of presidential politics makes all of your information untrustworthy. If your goal is to disrupt the thread, carry on I guess. We all do it from time to time, but it doesn't add useful discussion and the great majority are already set in their beliefs.
Maybe one day Chicken will introduce an ignore feature. Til then I just put a search box for "Trump" at the top of the page and skip over every post containing yellow highlights.
Maybe one day Chicken will introduce an ignore feature. Til then I just put a search box for "Trump" at the top of the page and skip over every post containing yellow highlights.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 11:52 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:23 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
Thankfully Louisiana has ran off many large corporations where people would be traveling the world back and forth.
Louisiana: we are so far behind- we are ahead!
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:24 am to lsu13lsu
quote:We are crazy like foxes.
Thankfully Louisiana has ran off many large corporations where people would be traveling the world back and forth.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:25 am to Burhead
quote:
Individuals that were in close contact with the patient will also be quarantined for 14 days from their last contact. The patient is quarantined at home.
Actions like this give me hope we might actually stay ahead of this.
Although it’ll suck to just be told to cancel all of your plans for the next 2 weeks at least.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 11:26 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:31 am to Volvagia
quote:
But his actions leaves him particularly vulnerable in an election year if this does go bad.
Wait, you mean he and people in his admin repeatedly telling people its been contained when it clearly has not, that it will go away in the Spring, you can be fine and still go to work when you have it, firing the pandemic team 2 years ago and failing to replace them, reducing funding to the CDC, and saying woefully ignorant things like "You take a solid flu vaccine you don't think that would have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?" during press events is going to cause people to question his performance?
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:31 am to Volvagia
What was your original death count? Seems like a lifetime ago when we’re discussing this in Wuhan. We were crazy kids with our lives ahead of us back then.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 11:32 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:36 am to lsu13lsu
Global: probably less than 5k, with a ceiling of 10k.
Depending on what the US/Europe does in the next month or so, that’s still doable. However 15-20k might be more realistic.
A million deaths globally is still in the cards if enough people keep on acting like it’s “muh flu” and keep coming up with new excuses as to why it’s really just the flu even when examples keep coming up that it’s not.
Depending on what the US/Europe does in the next month or so, that’s still doable. However 15-20k might be more realistic.
A million deaths globally is still in the cards if enough people keep on acting like it’s “muh flu” and keep coming up with new excuses as to why it’s really just the flu even when examples keep coming up that it’s not.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 11:38 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:40 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The current mortality rate in Italy is 4% with 5,883 cases. If we assumed the mortality rate was 0.1% (“just the next flu”). That would mean there would be 235,000 cases in Italy right now.
I'm not trying to beat a dead horse but that is not mortality rate. Italy has a 4% naive case fatality rate (nCFR). Mortality rate is calculated for a whole population and the nCFR is calculated for people that we know are sick right now today. The problem with nCFR is that it doesn't account for people that are sick today but will eventually die in the future or people that are sick that we don't know about. In modeling, you can generate a corrected CFR and an IFR to try and account for these unknowns.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:44 am to Burhead
Shelby county Alabama you mean? That’s very close to home
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:44 am to Burhead
On March 27-28, many teachers from Louisiana and around the country are scheduled for this conference in Indianapolis. The risks that some will be exposed the return infect our kids is unacceptable. Contact your local school boards before this happens. We should not be sending any teachers by plane to any large conferences right now.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 11:48 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:45 am to rds dc
quote:
I'm not trying to beat a dead horse but that is not mortality rate. Italy has a 4% naive case fatality rate (nCFR). Mortality rate is calculated for a whole population and the nCFR is calculated for people that we know are sick right now today. The problem with nCFR is that it doesn't account for people that are sick today but will eventually die in the future or people that are sick that we don't know about. In modeling, you can generate a corrected CFR and an IFR to try and account for these unknowns.
I agree completely. My math was going to be used as a crude piece of evidence that there is no way the real CFR is 0.1% because the numbers just don’t work. I wasn’t actually trying to calculate the real CFR. I think that’s almost impossible at this point.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:45 am to Volvagia
quote:
Earlier in the thread someone asked for guesses on when the first confirmed LA case would be.
I said March 10th, give or take a day.
Crossing fingers if I can become a pandemic Nostradamus.
I saw a map a while ago that showed if it is accurate a 4 state cluster of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama having no cases and every surrounding state. I am having at least one. I think the first will be found in Louisiana no later than the 11th. New Orleans has the biggest airport and tourist city of these states so I am just guessing odds.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:48 am to schwartzy
quote:
Shelby county Alabama you mean? That’s very close to home
Tennessee.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:49 am to Ponchy Tiger
We just began testing a few days ago. It’s here, just a few days lag time.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:52 am to Dominate308
I’m pretty confident that it will be cancelled. Last Friday was a blood bath of travel/conference plans
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:55 am to schwartzy
Tennessee
Posted on 3/8/20 at 11:57 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I agree completely. My math was going to be used as a crude piece of evidence that there is no way the real CFR is 0.1% because the numbers just don’t work. I wasn’t actually trying to calculate the real CFR. I think that’s almost impossible at this point.
You are right and that is the crude/naive CFR. Specifically, I was pointing out that using the term mortality rate was incorrect. Mortality for the flu in the US is something like 4 - 6 per 100,000 people. It's a bit of semantics but when people say the mortality rate is 3% (or whatever) and then people scream, "No way mortality is that high!" Technically, they are right but for the wrong reasons
Posted on 3/8/20 at 12:07 pm to rds dc
It is now confirmed in Nashville.
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