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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:02 pm to Oates Mustache
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:02 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:Coronaviruses don’t tend to work that way.
This does have the look of becoming a potential seasonal threat though like flu right?
There are multiple common ones that we see throughout the year, but nothing on the scale of flu. Usually just presents as a cold.
I can’t say no, but I don’t expect it to.
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 8:03 pm
2
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:05 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Coronaviruses don’t tend to work that way. I can’t say no, but I don’t expect it to.
Most epidemiologists I’ve seen quoted have said they expect it to circulate yearly through the population but they also said it should become less virulent and less common like the other coronaviruses already in circulation. Basically turn into something like the flu. But it all seemed like a lot of speculation.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:06 pm to Scruffy
Scruffy, a long time ago in this thread, I asked you if it was time to crack each others heads open and feast on the goo inside. You told us to do whatever we felt like.
Does that advice still hold?
Does that advice still hold?
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:06 pm to Oates Mustache
Hell, just make two threads, one apocalyptic, one nothing burger....everyone happy.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:07 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Then name names. You guys are beating around the bush, call them out directly. Surely you're not talking about Scruffy, right?
I'm not gonna go back and locate all the folks who bring nothing to the thread but derision of folks who actually discuss with some knowledge. But here's an example I saw this morning.
quote:
SaintsandTigers
quote:
Think about this. For the last umpteen years, anytime you go into a clinic with a fever and a cough during fall/winter, you get tested for the flu, giving us a very accurate mortality rate as most cases are identified
This guy apparently has no clue that a very small fraction of our annual CDC estimated influenza cases actually gets tested for influenza virus. But then he goes right ahead and says things like this to WaWaWeeWa:
quote:
I have a hard time believing you are a medical professional. If you are, you are one of the few I have seen fan the flames with somewhat fear mongering tactics
One of innumerable examples of people too dumb to know what they don't know. They pop up every single day showing their ignorance.
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 8:09 pm
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:32 pm to rds dc
Testing capacity slowly increasing. With the spread of this in Europe and other non-restricted travel countries there are new cases steadily arriving in the US. Combine that with cases already here and numbers are going to quickly go up as testing increases.
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:39 pm to wdhalgren
quote:My wife is an MD in infectious disease, and I am an actuary. But continue to wag your high horse dick like you are the chose one
One of innumerable examples of people too dumb to know what they don't know. They pop up every single day showing their ignorance.
Doesn’t bother me
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:55 pm to frankthetank
My mom is in a nursing home in Hammond. She had a stroke last year and is paralyzed on her left side. I go every night after work and sit with her for an hour or two. Today the nursing came out with a new plan because of this virus. They are going to screen everyone that comes there and their new hours for visitors is now 8 am to 5 pm. I will only be able to see her on weekends now. I know the facility is doing this for the best interest of their patients but it’s gonna be tough for me and my mom
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:57 pm to BowDownToLSU
First case of corona has hit south Louisiana. Should break within the next 24 hours.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:58 pm to BowDownToLSU
Sorry to hear that
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:58 pm to BowDownToLSU
Someone on my FB posted that Flannery Oaks implemented the same deal.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 8:59 pm to touchdownjeebus
Baptist Hospital in Pensacola has their first case
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:04 pm to Bourre
Ochsner here in greater NOLA.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:09 pm to touchdownjeebus
I am told Ochsner sent out an email just a few minutes ago stating this is a false rumor.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:10 pm to touchdownjeebus
American Airlines slashed some ticket prices today and I picked up some for a trip to Alaska in May. What was 8-900 was going for $459 today. Keep on panicking folks. I’m enjoying the benefits.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:14 pm to Scruffy
quote:
It will probably be sub 0.1%.
We agree on everything but this. And I may be completely wrong but my reasoning is this. The Italy fatality rate is 3.8% right now with 3,848 current cases. Certainly inflated.
But to get to a fatality rate of 0.1% would mean there are about 145,000 infections in Italy right now to produce 148 deaths.
It would mean that China had 3.2 million cases mainly in Hubei.
The numbers just don’t seem to fit with the estimated percent of asymptomatic cases. Which most experts on the ground said was probably 1%. Or even with the diamond princess where 50% didn’t experience symptoms. Even taking those asymptomatic cases into account I can’t see a way China and Italy have that many cases in such a short amount of time from when they estimate the virus started.
And if you think China underestimated their deaths or cases then it would mean those totals are even higher.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:15 pm to Scruffy
You said there is nothing to worry about here. Well, no shite scruffy. One more time, just because we are discussing it doesn't mean we are worried.
This post was edited on 3/5/20 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:16 pm to SaintsandTigers
quote:
My wife is an MD in infectious disease
Can you ask her what data she has seen that would indicate such a low mortality rate. Serious question, I actually want to evaluate it.
Or is it just a hunch?
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:23 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
what data
I've asked this question, multiples of times in this thread and get crickets. I've seen some github repositories with some data, but where are you all drawing data from? How are you cleaning it? I can't find shite in excel format.
Posted on 3/5/20 at 9:23 pm to rds dc
Another interesting article up preprint (prior to peer review) and it indicates that it takes a long time to recover and that children get infected. The child infections matter from a policy standpoint b/c some people are claiming that there is no reason to close schools since kids don't get this virus.
LINK
The amount of data and research that is being released on a daily basis is nothing short of amazing (maybe only to me, since I try to read at least one scientific journal article per day).
quote:
Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts
quote:
225 have recovered (median time to recovery is 32 days)
quote:
children were as likely to be infected as adults
LINK
The amount of data and research that is being released on a daily basis is nothing short of amazing (maybe only to me, since I try to read at least one scientific journal article per day).
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