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Posted on 7/9/20 at 6:22 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Yes, you can pull some European countries with better numbers. And you can pull some with worse
The main comparison to Europe will depend on this:
Will they continue to be able to avoid the level of outbreak after reopening that the USA is currently experiencing?
Then, we can specify ways they handled re-opening "phases" differently.
They are already in school, playing professional sports all over etc etc etc and have, so far, avoided what is currently happening here.
This post was edited on 7/10/20 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 7/9/20 at 8:03 pm to wm72
So aside from the many nursing home residents where I consult that were positive, I know *** 3 *** people personally that have/have had this virus.
I had to have been exposed .. I've been to mass (indoor and outdoor), I've been to Target and Hobby Lobby, the grocery stores, the dollar stores, restaurants ... if it's open and I needed/wanted to go, I went. And I'm still working from home.
That said, I realize that I can still of course get it OR maybe I HAVE had it and was asymptomatic.
Saying all of this to ask has any more research come out with the "T-cell theory" that was mentioned quite some time ago? Thanks.
I had to have been exposed .. I've been to mass (indoor and outdoor), I've been to Target and Hobby Lobby, the grocery stores, the dollar stores, restaurants ... if it's open and I needed/wanted to go, I went. And I'm still working from home.
That said, I realize that I can still of course get it OR maybe I HAVE had it and was asymptomatic.
Saying all of this to ask has any more research come out with the "T-cell theory" that was mentioned quite some time ago? Thanks.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 3:57 am to frankthetank
A quick search in Google News for “ICU beds” shows that this country is well on its way back into deep shite.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 6:07 am to tiger91
no research of which I'm aware specifically for covid and t cells at this point.
memory t cells play a role in immunity that we have knowledge of but its much harder to quantify and test for, and how t cell immunity modulates one's immune response is less understood.
that being said, when someone gets a vaccine for a given virus, it is typically antibody titers that are checked to ensure adequate immunity. so i would be surprised if any kind of t cell mediated immunity provided full protection. it may just allow one to experience a less potent disease course, which would obviously still be good. but honestly who knows.
memory t cells play a role in immunity that we have knowledge of but its much harder to quantify and test for, and how t cell immunity modulates one's immune response is less understood.
that being said, when someone gets a vaccine for a given virus, it is typically antibody titers that are checked to ensure adequate immunity. so i would be surprised if any kind of t cell mediated immunity provided full protection. it may just allow one to experience a less potent disease course, which would obviously still be good. but honestly who knows.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 12:40 pm to escatawpabuckeye
LockdownTV interniew with a Swedish doctor discussing what's going on in Sweden.
Haven't had a chance to watch it all yet, but she is one of the authors of a T-cell immunity paper that came out last week.
Long read from Nature concerning the misunderstand of R.
Haven't had a chance to watch it all yet, but she is one of the authors of a T-cell immunity paper that came out last week.
Long read from Nature concerning the misunderstand of R.
This post was edited on 7/10/20 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 7/10/20 at 2:43 pm to lsupride87
Another thing that really doesn't get mentioned much when comparing how things are going in the US vs EU is the size.
Disregarding that there are some pretty glaring reporting differences that I think are the biggest differences, is the population density and just general size differences. I think a lot of what we are seeing now is a Virus that is traveling across a much bigger area, with not nearly as densely populated area.
Disregarding that there are some pretty glaring reporting differences that I think are the biggest differences, is the population density and just general size differences. I think a lot of what we are seeing now is a Virus that is traveling across a much bigger area, with not nearly as densely populated area.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 8:47 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Sorry for the delay but informative post that makes a lot of sense. Anyways, I guess my FIL’s oxygen levels are still a little too low for comfort (so not dangerously low) even with the highest treatment level they could provide outside of the ICU. So it seems pretty precautionary and he seemed in good spirits when we FaceTimed him, they moved him to the ICU to far more intensive treatment and supervision.
Our bodies are designed to detect high carbon dioxide levels, that’s what controls our breathing rate. We do not have good sensors to detect lowering oxygen levels. Usually lower oxygen levels go hand in hand with higher carbon dioxide levels, but not in this case
And now my brother has been having a cough, migraines, aches, and no energy, so he had a telehealth appointment and he got tested yesterday after the doctor recommended it.
But since he lives alone and works from home, if he has it then that means he probably either got it from his GF, who was at a bachelorette party at Put-in-Bay (an island on Lake Erie for partying) and they had an outbreak around that time (I think the weekend after though) or the guys who deliver his washer and dryer into his apartment.
I hadn’t known anybody who even had it (my wife’s elementary teacher‘s husband in Florida died from it) so it’s been a bit crazy with my FIL and now maybe my bro all in the same week.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 9:09 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:I’ve been thinking the same thing. I saw someone post about high many fewer counties were reporting 5+, 10+, and 25+ deaths per day from the April peak. And while the 5+ roughly corresponds to the lower percentage of deaths, it gets significantly lower and 10+ and even lower at 25+.
I think a lot of what we are seeing now is a Virus that is traveling across a much bigger area, with not nearly as densely populated area.
My thought was that at the April peak, deaths were largely in the extremely dense northeast and a couple of other major metro areas (Detroit).
Now two of the market hotspots are in areas with a lot of counties (Texas) so there are fewer people per county so deaths per county would be harder to get 25, very few counties with most of population in a single county,
quote:I’ve been thinking the same thing. I saw someone post about high many fewer counties were reporting 5+, 10+, and 25+ deaths per day from the April peak. And while the 5+ roughly corresponds to the lower percentage of deaths, it gets significantly lower and 10+ and even lower at 25+.
I think a lot of what we are seeing now is a Virus that is traveling across a much bigger area, with not nearly as densely populated area.
My thought was that at the April peak, deaths were largely in the extremely dense northeast and a couple of other major metro areas (Detroit).
Now two of the market hotspots are in areas with a lot of counties (Texas) so there are fewer people per county so deaths per county would be harder to get 25, very few counties with most of population in a single county, and an area with few counties (Arizona) with over 75% of population in 2 counties covering an area 30% larger than New Jersey and Connecticut (two early outbreak areas) and their 29 counties combined. And I’m sure they account for the vast majority of deaths, which will only show up is 2 25+ death counties, but they make up an area far larger area than a normal county would (nearly 15 times the area per county of NJ and CT).
Posted on 7/10/20 at 9:10 pm to buckeye_vol
Wish the best for your family.
I understand that younger people usually aren't significantly impacted by covid-19, and I sure as hell understand the desire to get back to normal but this shite needs to be taken more seriously.
I understand that younger people usually aren't significantly impacted by covid-19, and I sure as hell understand the desire to get back to normal but this shite needs to be taken more seriously.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 10:45 pm to buckeye_vol
Praying for y’all. Sounds like they are just being cautious with your FIL. ICU allows a lot more care from the nursing staff to check vital signs more frequently.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:09 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Overall question, because I haven’t been following this board that much.
Have we seen any people drastically change their opinions over time on this board?
Dangerous to not dangerous?
Hoax to holy shite this is real?
Have we seen any people drastically change their opinions over time on this board?
Dangerous to not dangerous?
Hoax to holy shite this is real?
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:14 pm to borotiger
quote:
Wish the best for your family.
quote:I’m beginning to think I see why such a disconnect with people. Like you said, younger people are obviously far less risk of severe complications and death if they get it. And because it’s far more severe and now it attacks one’s body is far different the medical community has pushed back on the characterization that it’s just a really bad flu. That being said, people who had it, especially those not at as much risk of dying, having described it as a really bad or even terrible flu.
I understand that younger people usually aren't significantly impacted by covid-19, and I sure as hell understand the desire to get back to normal but this shite needs to be taken more seriously.
Now I’m thinking back to flu shot threads over the years, and numerous posters have said “I’ve never had a flu shot as an adult and I’ve never gotten the flu so I’m not getting a flu shot now.” But one of the major reasons I now get the flu shot (along with having you kids and my mother having an autoimmune disorder and more at-risk with age) is because I’ve HAD THE FLU as an adult.
It was 5 years ago this January, Friday before a 3-day weekend I started feeling terrible and she surprised me with a positive pregnancy test. The next day, we were supposed to visit her parents for the weekend, and I was too miserable to leave. And I just laid on the couch all weekend miserable, and even with Monday off, I had to take my first and only sick day of my life because of it (well I’ve taken sick days to stay home with sick kids). And for the next like 6 weeks I had a persistent cough that kept me up half the night. And I slept in the spare bedroom since my wife was pregnant and went through 2 humidifiers.
So maybe I’m weak, but the flu sucks and I don’t want to get it. So when people say it’s just a “really bad flu” yet never had “just the flu” I think the underestimate the terribleness of just the flu, let alone a really bad flu.
In addition, a number of poster have said they (and/or their families) were sick way back in December and February, and that it was terrible with the same symptoms that I had. But then they’ve said, “I had a terrible case of the flu and I think I had COVID-19. And while it was terrible case of flu I’m ok so it’s not that bad.”
In reality what they think was COVID-19 and a terrible flu was almost certainly “JUST THE FLU.” And COVID-19 is a “terrible version of the thing they found terrible.” I bet they would not find it quite a bit worse if they realized this.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:14 pm to LSU Fan 90812
The fear of this is dramatically lower than it was in April
Once people saw that the real death rate is below 0.6%, they tuned it out
I’m in Southern California, and people have moved on
Once people saw that the real death rate is below 0.6%, they tuned it out
I’m in Southern California, and people have moved on
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:15 pm to LSU Fan 90812
quote:
Dangerous to not dangerous?
Hoax to holy shite this is real?
Not that I've seen. Those that have extreme views, one way or another, think about the virus politically and frame any data received in a way to support their side.
I've never seen a disease become political before but here we are.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:17 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Thanks. My SIL was worried about his care because it’s just a small local hospital and proposed the liaison of getting him moved to Cleveland (an hour away) if it got worse. But unless it takes a drastic turn for the worse, I think this worked out for the better because they were more easily able to take precautionary measures.
Praying for y’all. Sounds like they are just being cautious with your FIL. ICU allows a lot more care from the nursing staff to check vital signs more frequently.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:28 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I still think the IFR is around 0.6-0.8 percent, although improved treatment will hopefully lower that moving forward. Regardless, with its high transmissibility, and fatality rate that is undoubtedly factors higher than the flu even by the very lowest estimates (which I think there is a ton of evidence to suggest they are unreasonably too low, particularly the CDC’s evidence-lacking estimate), people need to take it seriously.
Once people saw that the real death rate is below 0.6%, they tuned it out
And I’m for keeping the economy open as much as possible (I get not having the NBA play in crowded arenas or not having packed bars), but the worst part of people not taking it seriously at all to do the very basics (wear a mask, socially distance, do more outside, drink at the chill not overcrowded bar) is that inevitably ends up helping make that NOT happen or stay happening.
Just look at Tokyo and other super-crowded cities like it. The economy stayed pretty open, but they did/do those little things (like over 90% mask compliance) and haven’t been severely impacted at all.
This post was edited on 7/10/20 at 11:31 pm
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:35 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:CA, TX, ax, and FL made a huge mistake letting bars reopen.
I still think the IFR is around 0.6-0.8 percent, although improved treatment will hopefully lower that moving forward. Regardless, with its high transmissibility, and fatality rate that is undoubtedly factors higher than the flu even by the very lowest estimates (which I think there is a ton of evidence to suggest they are unreasonably too low, particularly the CDC’s evidence-lacking estimate), people need to take it seriously.
And I’m for keeping the economy open as much as possible (I get not having the NBA play in crowded arenas or not having packed bars), but the worst part of people not taking it seriously at all to do the very basics (wear a mask, socially distance, do more outside, drink at the chill not overcrowded bar) is that inevitably ends up helping make that NOT happen or stay happening.
Just look at Tokyo and other super-crowded cities like it. The economy stayed pretty open, but they did/do those little things (like over 90% mask compliance) and haven’t been severely impacted at all.
Posted on 7/10/20 at 11:36 pm to borotiger
quote:
I've never seen a disease become political before but here we are.
Well that’s everything these days
Posted on 7/11/20 at 5:33 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
I still think the IFR is around 0.6-0.8 percent, although improved treatment will hopefully lower that moving forward.
You should check out the latest stuff on antibodies and T cells. Many mild/asymptomatic infections aren’t producing antibodies (IgG/IgM) but are producing IgA antibodies and T cells.
The antibody studies we are doing may only be picking up a fraction of the real infections out there. And these antibody studies were backed up by multiple confirmation assays.
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