buckeye_vol

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The Odyssey needs to make 1.36 Billion to break even.

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The best part of this is that he was pretty close to correct when he posted about it a month ago when he thought it would only make $500 million. But the idea that a movie with a $250 production budget and $100-$125 marketing budget (which isn’t really an apples to apples comparison and big films have higher ROIs for other films, because more people see those previews) has to make $1.36 billion to break even is just silly. But quickly watching the video, he has to inflate the budget, deflate the box office returns (says they only get 20% in Asia, even though China is the only place that has a low rate for studios and that’s 25%; this also ignores studios get a higher take early on and bigger films usually get a higher take). But by far the biggest issue is that he applies Nolan’s 20% net revenue take from the studio and applies it to the gross revenue.

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I still believe 8.5/10 is where it’s at though instead of the 97%. It’s a solid flick.

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Well the 97% is the percentage of users who rated it 3.5 or higher so 7/10, so while the average rating and the “hot/fresh” rating correlate, they’re not measuring the exact same thing.

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two of the worst defenders in the league on the court at the same time. Not going to win a title that way.

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LeBron is not one of the worst defenders in the league. He’s fairly average, even if coasting more in the regular season.

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There was a ton of excitement between IW and Endgame. And we were all told how amazing and pivotal her character was to be. Unsurprising there were tons of people annoyed after watching that.

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I mean IW made over 2 billion worldwide, and by that time, had been available for purchase and rent for many months and streaming on Netflix. It had 52k reviews on RT. Within hours of Captain Marvel’s release, it had 58k, and to this day it has 100k+ ratings while Infinity War and Endgame have 50k+ listed, while on IMDB they have 1.4 and 1.5 million ratings compared to Captain Marvel’s 664k and on letterboxd it has 2.8 million watches compared to 5.8 million for IW and 5.7 million for Endgame.

Like does it really matter? No. But from RT’s standpoint, this was such a blatant example and it’s obvious in the numbers, that they obviously had both the evidence and the incentive (like people do typically want to know whether a film is worth a viewing) to put a verification process in place while still allowing for unverified reviews if someone really wants to see them.

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Review bombing doesn't exist

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I mean obviously it does. That’s why RT went to verified reviews, and IMDB has to use a weighting algorithm. And it works both ways. Melania has a 99% verified score and a 4.9/5 on RT on 2,500+ reviews but a 38% and 2.3/5 on 10,000+ total reviews. I probably wouldn’t like it (not really into documentaries like that anyways), but given that, I’m just not going to watch it so I won’t review it. So obviously those unverified reviews might include some who actually weren’t going to like it anyway but watched, but it will also include those who would like it and did watch it. So clearly that discrepancy was due to review bombing, even if the unverified will typically be lower.

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Man, people get their shorts in a twist if you talk about the movie before you've seen it.

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I mean I’m talking about things that are irrelevant to my own personal ratings. I was always interested in box office data since I was a kid and would read the box office estimates in the local newspaper, and I’ve been interested in reviews since I was in college when I had a computer lab job and just sat and browsed the internet when I had nothing to do else to do (how I found tigerdroppings before the OSU-LSU 2007 national championship game).

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When all else fails put community watch on ratings for supergirl and the odyssey.

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I don’t even get the comparison between Supergirl and The Oddysey. Supergirl has a B- cinema score, 53% RT score with an average rating of 5.6/10, a 74% audience score with an average rating of 3.9/5, letterboxd score of 3.1/5, and a 6.1/10 in IMDB. And it was a box office bomb.

Like the data for Supergirl show a film people consider mediocre to bad across critics and audiences alike, and The Oddysey shows a film that people consider great to excellent across critics and audience alike.

And in the case of Supergirl, the impact isn’t isolated to a single film, since it’s part of a cinematic universe where the quality of films can have a material impact on the financial returns of later films. If there was ever a film that needed manipulation, it was Supergirl, not The Oddysey.

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think Spiderman coming out in two weeks means Odyssey will be more front-loaded as the crossover audience shifts from Odyssey to Spiderman. Seems like a pretty safe bet.

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Yes, but they drop relative to a baseline. This is why 1st to 2nd weekend drops are so important because if say it drops 40% or less next weekend, then while maybe it would only drop 30% in weekend 3, then instead a 45% drop would still put it at $40 million and $100-150 million more moving forward.

I mean in terms of world wide box office, it’s opened over 40% higher than Oppenheimer (Japan, South Korea, and China yet to open but I suspect it was do better in Japan than Oppenheimer for obvious reasons) and Oppenheimer made nearly a billion ($976 million), so it doesn’t need to even come close to the legs of Oppenheimer to hit a billion (roughly $1.4 billion with the same legs).

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A billion would be surprising for an R rated movie with Spiderman coming up, but it definitely is possible. Going to have to keep up the pace this weekend for sure if it's going to hit that.

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Why? Looking at the domestic box office of 4 of Nolan’s biggest films (TDK, TDKR, Inception, and Oppenheimer) 60% to 70% of the domestic box office is accounted for in the first 2 weeks. It has a 5 week IMAX exclusive window, and the IMAX theater in London is sold out until until like September 10th, so the theaters generating the highest per ticket revenue will be strong for a solid month.

Not to mention while there is only so many screens and theaters, I think people underestimate how much capacity is out there (see Barbieheimer). I mean Dune 3 and Doomsday are literally opening the same day, and both will likely be huge hits.

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Guess you missed the press tour

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I guess I just find it funny because up until like 2 months ago he was one of the hated directors by the far left, due to his casting choices (no Indians in Dunkirk; no Japanese perspective in Oppenheimer) and his “right wing” plots like “anti-occupy Wall Street” in TDKR (since Bane attacks theirstock market) and “a supporter of the Bush era patriot act” (since they ignored the whole Lucious Fox position and Batman destroying the tech). Like but this is a good example of horseshoe theory and how stupidity does a lot of the work bringing them together.

And all I see of the press tour we like Matt Damon shocked Tom Holland had never seen the The Matrix or Anne Hathaway and Matt Damon talking about turning down roles and both regrets and in Damon’s case, thankful Ridley convinced him to do The Martian.

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so you somehow think the fact he’s a “conservative” reviewer gives him credibility when he announces his love for the film that uses an African Helen and transgender warrior?

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Yes, I think a person who watched a film, whose job is to watch and review films, who would ideologically more likely to take issue with the casting if it’s an issue, has more credibility than people who haven’t seen it. And I think that’s especially for people who terminally only who get caught up in the dumbest culture war stuff.