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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...

Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:45 pm to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

Jamaica is not that big. I would say shear would be a bigger factor to it’s getting weaker.


Its got high terrain and we have a small circulation still. A run directly over the island would do more to disrupt things than shear.

I mean, its under some shear tonight and seems to not give a single frick.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40247 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:47 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 9:51 pm
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
179513 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:51 pm to
Sanka you dead mon
Yea mon
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 9:52 pm
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa-Here to Serve
Member since Aug 2012
17235 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:52 pm to
I just found out that a friends daughter is on the north side of Jamaica. I thought they were in the Bahamas and he just texted me.

If any of y’all pray please throw one up. She is on her honeymoon.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:53 pm to
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quote:

Bit of a due westward jog occurring with Hurricane #Beryl's motion over the past 2 hours in satellite and aircraft data. These short-term trends now matter a lot for #Jamaica. We'll see if this lasts long enough to significantly nudge the track southward.

Regardless, Jamaica should expect and be prepared for a major hurricane strike with life-threatening storm surge, wind, and inland flooding hazards.
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 9:54 pm
Posted by boxcarbarney
Above all things, be a man
Member since Jul 2007
26916 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:54 pm to
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Lets hope that westward jog becomes a trend.
Posted by GeauxFish31
Member since May 2024
3080 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 9:59 pm to
Best post so far haha
Posted by jafari rastaman
Member since Nov 2015
2655 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:04 pm to
quote:

I just found out that a friends daughter is on the north side of Jamaica.


Any word from their bobsled team?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
103326 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:05 pm to
And here I thought it looked to have jogged northward
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14465 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:11 pm to
Center of NHC track is now about 5 miles to 25 miles off the southern Jamaican coastline.

If that is the track Beryl takes, the center will never be fully on land which may not cause much weakening.

Better for north side of Jamaica but potentially not as good for south side.
Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
75481 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

Jamaica is not that big. I would say shear would be a bigger factor to it’s getting weaker.
RIP Jamaica
Posted by Tower_Tiger12
Member since Jan 2021
1200 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:15 pm to
Just when you think peej has retired from the prediction business…
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75735 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:35 pm to
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135117 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 10:50 pm to
I admit I don’t have a trained eye when it comes to analyzing a video loop of a hurricane, but it sure looks to me that shear is pushing a significant part of the circulation off towards the northeast and the eye fills in in the last few frames of the loop.
Posted by Tigahs24Seven
Charlie Kirk's America
Member since Nov 2007
15049 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:10 pm to
looks headed due west to me
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
132085 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:16 pm to
Due north of west
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29891 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

I’d like to ride one out on an island but only if I know I could get out as soon as it’s over


With a generator, meat, and all the beer I can drink, I wouldn't really care if I got out after.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14465 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:40 pm to
Track based on recon center fixes

Posted by Tomherman
Member since Sep 2016
2053 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:50 pm to
Everytime we want him out he pulls himself back in.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5109 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 11:52 pm to
So after moving due west the last few hours it’s moving WNW now?
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