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Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:21 pm to GeauxOn
Not sure of budget or even availability due to the 4th but the Ritz in Key Biscayne is very nice.
ETA: It’s only about 30 min from MIA.
ETA: It’s only about 30 min from MIA.
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:23 pm to Duke
quote:
Assuming it gets up to Texas, it'll get pulled into that trough and dissipate.
Typical tropical system flooding is there but there aren't alarm bells going off for a major flooding event at this time.
Agree.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:24 pm to rds dc
This HWRF is going to be an interesting case.
It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia. Here's our strong case on a model.
It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia. Here's our strong case on a model.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:26 pm to Duke
Wife and I are scheduled to be in Playa Del Carmen from the 11th - 17th. I hope this is a weak Cat 1 or so. Don't feel like canceling.

Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:27 pm to 5 Deep
I was in grand cayman until yesterday . Flights were full out . I wouldn’t want to ride a hurricane out on an island but if I had too grand cayman is where I would prefer
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:27 pm to btnetigers
quote:
Don't feel like canceling.
They may cancel for you
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:33 pm to Duke
quote:
Locals down there will likely remember Ivan, but it dodged south of Jamacia and was in-tact as it roared into the Caymans.
Not sure that Beryl will get as close to Grand Cayman as Ivan did. We were supposed to leave tomorrow to go to Grand Cayman. Hoping island doesn't get much damage so we can try again later this month.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:33 pm to Duke
quote:
This HWRF is going to be an interesting case.
It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia. Here's our strong case on a model.
Also, HAFS-B with a big jump north vs 00z.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:35 pm to Duke
quote:
It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia.
Yeah that HWRF run is almost worst case for Jamaica and not great for GC either.
Slams into southern Jamaican coast as a Cat 4 but stays just close enough to shoreline to only weaken to a Cat 2 before restrengthening to nearly cat 3 that puts Grand Cayman very near or possibly in the northern eyewall.
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:35 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:36 pm to jlntiger
My law partner had to route through Nassau to get his younger kids out. They have a couple of places on Seven Mile and I think most of his family is riding it out there.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:38 pm to Duke
Didn't the HWRF do really well last year, especially sniffing out intensity?
Just seems like it performed better than most of the models if I remember correctly.
Just seems like it performed better than most of the models if I remember correctly.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:38 pm to GeauxOn
I forgot to mention one important thing about the flight out this evening, the only reason I knew they had added another flight was because I saw a guy wearing an LSU bucket hat and decided to talk to him and his wife was on the phone with American. So if that fella from lake Chuck reads this board and remembers talking to a guy wearing a PlayStation button up shirt, thank you!
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:38 pm to Duke
quote:
This HWRF is going to be an interesting case.
It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia. Here's our strong case on a model.
Without Beryl clipping much of the Yucatan on this run, it will be ugly.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:40 pm to ROUSTER
quote:
Didn't the HWRF do really well last year, especially sniffing out intensity?
It does but this is a path dependence more so than it picking up on some dynamics in the storm I think.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:42 pm to btnetigers
We're supposed to be leaving for Montego Bay on Saturday. The resort said we're more than welcome to cancel or reschedule but they said they expect to be fully operational by Saturday. I have my doubts. 
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:43 pm to rds dc
Yep....also seeing increased chances of the storm going thru the gap and having very minimal land interaction (if any) in the Yucatan Pen. If this happens, the Texas coast (perhaps Southwest Louisiana) will likely be dealing with a major hurricane.
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:43 pm to lsugolfredman
That run destroys Cozumel
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:46 pm to TrigSwig
quote:
perhaps Southwest Louisiana) will likely be dealing with a major hurricane.

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