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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...

Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:19 pm to
Posted by GeauxOn
Texas
Member since Mar 2014
400 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:19 pm to
The keys does sounds like great idea though, didn't think of that. I just needed to have a hotel lined up for when we land tonight.
Posted by CMATTE
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2010
304 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:21 pm to
Not sure of budget or even availability due to the 4th but the Ritz in Key Biscayne is very nice.

ETA: It’s only about 30 min from MIA.
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 12:23 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21596 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

Assuming it gets up to Texas, it'll get pulled into that trough and dissipate.

Typical tropical system flooding is there but there aren't alarm bells going off for a major flooding event at this time.


Agree.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:24 pm to
This HWRF is going to be an interesting case.

It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia. Here's our strong case on a model.
Posted by btnetigers
South Louisiana
Member since Aug 2015
2330 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:26 pm to
Wife and I are scheduled to be in Playa Del Carmen from the 11th - 17th. I hope this is a weak Cat 1 or so. Don't feel like canceling.

Posted by jlntiger
Member since Feb 2011
1612 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:27 pm to
I was in grand cayman until yesterday . Flights were full out . I wouldn’t want to ride a hurricane out on an island but if I had too grand cayman is where I would prefer
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
132076 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

Don't feel like canceling.


They may cancel for you
Posted by Stevo
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2004
12540 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Locals down there will likely remember Ivan, but it dodged south of Jamacia and was in-tact as it roared into the Caymans.


Not sure that Beryl will get as close to Grand Cayman as Ivan did. We were supposed to leave tomorrow to go to Grand Cayman. Hoping island doesn't get much damage so we can try again later this month.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21596 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

This HWRF is going to be an interesting case.

It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia. Here's our strong case on a model.


Also, HAFS-B with a big jump north vs 00z.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14459 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:35 pm to
quote:

It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia.


Yeah that HWRF run is almost worst case for Jamaica and not great for GC either.

Slams into southern Jamaican coast as a Cat 4 but stays just close enough to shoreline to only weaken to a Cat 2 before restrengthening to nearly cat 3 that puts Grand Cayman very near or possibly in the northern eyewall.
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 12:37 pm
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
69060 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:35 pm to
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
87605 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:36 pm to
My law partner had to route through Nassau to get his younger kids out. They have a couple of places on Seven Mile and I think most of his family is riding it out there.
Posted by ROUSTER
Member since Sep 2003
7205 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:38 pm to
Didn't the HWRF do really well last year, especially sniffing out intensity?
Just seems like it performed better than most of the models if I remember correctly.
Posted by GeauxOn
Texas
Member since Mar 2014
400 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:38 pm to
I forgot to mention one important thing about the flight out this evening, the only reason I knew they had added another flight was because I saw a guy wearing an LSU bucket hat and decided to talk to him and his wife was on the phone with American. So if that fella from lake Chuck reads this board and remembers talking to a guy wearing a PlayStation button up shirt, thank you!
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

This HWRF is going to be an interesting case.

It is back into the 960s coming off of Jamacia. Here's our strong case on a model.


Without Beryl clipping much of the Yucatan on this run, it will be ugly.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Didn't the HWRF do really well last year, especially sniffing out intensity?


It does but this is a path dependence more so than it picking up on some dynamics in the storm I think.
Posted by Mikes My Tiger
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2007
3050 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:42 pm to
We're supposed to be leaving for Montego Bay on Saturday. The resort said we're more than welcome to cancel or reschedule but they said they expect to be fully operational by Saturday. I have my doubts.
Posted by TrigSwig
Member since May 2024
331 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:43 pm to
Yep....also seeing increased chances of the storm going thru the gap and having very minimal land interaction (if any) in the Yucatan Pen. If this happens, the Texas coast (perhaps Southwest Louisiana) will likely be dealing with a major hurricane.
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:43 pm to
That run destroys Cozumel
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11967 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

perhaps Southwest Louisiana) will likely be dealing with a major hurricane.


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