Another “can I retire comfortably” question

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Nice but not “luxurious” lifestyle. 3 nice vacations (1 international) every year is desired.

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Is international europe/africa/asia or more like cancun and vancouver?

Subtle brag

I'd say you've got a good shot, but why not *really* make sure by working a few more years? Every year you work is one more you don't have to fund and another year of compounding interest. You don't want to be a situation where things went south, you incurred some cost due to unforeseen circumstances, and you wish you could go back to work but can't.

The $300k may not be enough to bridge you to 59.5. Even if it doubles in 8 years you're looking at maybe just enough to get you to 59.5 but maybe not at your desired lifestyle. You'll likely want/need to use 72t SEPP or Roth conversion ladder to access 401k early penalty free. It would probably help with tax optimization anyway and to minimize RMDs later. Or, you could work until 55 and use Rule of 55 instead.

You dont have a Roth IRA? Look into a backdoor Roth if you are over income limit. Building a larger taxable brokerage as a bridge account and to take advantage of zero LTCG rate in low taxable income years of early retirement would also help.

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3 million in 401k, house and vehicles paid off (debt free), $1500 a month pension, $300,000 in savings/liquid accounts, 50% employer paid to health insurance.

Wife doesn’t work, child starting college (separate account “should” cover most of this cost). Living in an “average” cost of living area nationally. Nice but not “luxurious” lifestyle. 3 nice vacations (1 international) every year is desired.

Retirement age 53, starting 8 years from now.

My calculations say very doable. Am I missing something? (Outside of something like some crazy runaway hyperinflation at that time)

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What are you monthly expenses? Pension likely covers insurance and property tax. Your monthly living expenses are the most important variable to be able to provide any real analysis of the situation.

This is a brag. If true, you have more money than God.

What are your monthly expenses?

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3 million in 401k, house and vehicles paid off (debt free), $1500 a month pension, $300,000 in savings/liquid accounts, 50% employer paid to health insurance.

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I retired years ago at 48. At that time my wife and I were 60% taxable with a ton of loss carry forwards, 5% cash/near cash and rest 401k and Roths, and a little over $60k in a HSA account at Fidelity which has grown as we have not touched it. Not knowing what tax rates will be in the future having an inordinate amount of funds in a taxable 401k could lead to some challenges. Our investment balances have grown to where we could spend $200k/year but we are currently under $130k spend rate, and my wife will start a small pension in 5 years and we will claim SS at some point but likely put it off until 67'ish. House value is roughly $825k and we owe $240k @ 1.625% for 59 more months. I think you would be fine, but if you are going to work another 5-6 years I would be stuffing money in Roth 401k, taxable brokerages, and tax loss harvest like crazy when the opportunities exist. I am going to get f'd this year due to the MMP acquisition in September and they sent me $36k in cash to offset 10+ years of non-taxed distributions, don't invest in MLP's as you will have to pay out the arse further down the road. Good luck.

How did you get $3m in 401k at 45?

Roughly $20k year for 25

You must have got some homeruns

$3MM in a 401k is impressive at 45 or 53, for an individual.

Having said that, you can consider “retiring” at 53 but working part time or consulting until you’re 59 1/2 to avoid the early withdrawal penalty. It seems you are a good planner and will have enough to still have fun in your 50s.